Baltimore’s Red Line cleared another hurdle Tuesday with Democrat Angela Alsobrooks’ win in the U.S. Senate race against its longtime nemesis, former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, who recently doubled down on his opposition to the revived transit project he scuttled.
Then it immediately ran into a wall.
Republican Donald Trump’s victory Tuesday means he will head back to the White House in January and usher in, many fear, an administration hostile to Democratic strongholds like Baltimore and bent on cutting funding to transit expansion.
In cash-strapped Maryland, the Red Line likely won’t happen without significant federal support — and that may not be there over the next four years.
Alsobrooks’ Senate win means the Red Line may not be dead just yet, said Yonah Freemark, a researcher at the Urban Institute who focuses on the intersection of land use and transportation. Senate support will be critical to locking down any possible federal funding, he said. U.S. Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Ben Cardin, whom Alsobrooks is replacing, even worked language into the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure bill that would move the Red Line to the front of the line when competing for funds.
The landmark legislation also pumped money into Amtrak, which it is putting toward two key, multibillion-dollar projects in Maryland: a passenger rail tunnel underneath West Baltimore and the Susquehanna River Rail Bridge in Perryville to speed trains along the busy Northeast Corridor. Two key contracts for the tunnel has moved forward but other construction phases are still in planning.
“Regardless of who is in the White House, Team Maryland fights tooth and nail to deliver for our state — be that for the Chesapeake Bay, the FBI Headquarters, the Red Line, or the many other projects that we’re working on,” Van Hollen said in an emailed statement.
He also reiterated his commitment to, along with Cardin and his congressional colleagues, securing full federal funding for the rebuild of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.
During Trump’s first term, local transportation departments across the country struggled with a Federal Transit Administration that was slow to process grant applications and delayed doling out funds. Allocations for new transit projects were meager as the agency faced a slimmer overall budget.
Though Trump didn’t totally can transit, there’s a chance that a second term could, Freemark warned. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which Trump has tried to distance himself from but whose writers or editors include multiple people who worked in the former president’s administration or campaign, floats the idea of stopping all federal funding for new transit projects.
“If they follow through on those efforts, projects like transit improvement in a blue state are not going to be the admin’s top priority,” Freemark said.
Jon Laria, an attorney who leads a commission laser-focused on Baltimore transit, said, “It’s hard to see how the state on its own could fund a new light rail project like the Red Line with just state fund[s].”
Laria also sat on the TRAIN commission, which worked last year to generate new ideas for raising state money for transportation.
Inflation, declining gas tax revenue and a slew of other factors have squeezed transportation funding statewide. The transportation department’s draft six-year budget, which would start next summer, defers dozens of critical maintenance projects for Maryland Transit Administration trains and buses and hundreds of millions of dollars worth of roadway improvements for the State Highway Administration.
It also doesn’t account for any state match in the rebuild of the Key Bridge, which President Joe Biden pledged the federal government would pay for entirely. Typically, a state would be responsible for 10% — possibly up to $200 million in this case — for a disaster rebuild. There’s a statewide worry that a Republican-controlled Senate and House won’t approve waiving that 10% commitment and that Trump won’t fulfill Biden’s call for full funding.
A capital investment grant from the Federal Transit Administration to kick-start Red Line construction looks less likely within the next four years, said Brian O’Malley, president of the Central Maryland Transportation Alliance, a local research and advocacy organization. But he said there’s still plenty the state can do — continue planning out the Red Line and invest more in maintaining the current transit system — in the meantime.
“We need to get ready and stay ready so that when the opportunity is there Maryland can take advantage,” O’Malley said. “So we have to look at revenue, yes, and also the expenditure side of the ledger to build the transportation system that puts Maryland in the strongest position to thrive.”
Another option could be pursuing a public-private partnership, or P3, that would use a mix of state funds and private investment to build the rail line. State officials and taxpayers may be soured on such a prospect, though, because of the overdue and over-budget Purple Line light rail project in suburban Washington, D.C., which Hogan endorsed as a P3, while killing an earlier version of the Red Line.
O’Malley called the Purple Line a “cautionary tale” but said it’s worth pursuing all available options. Laria agreed a P3 shouldn’t be off the table.
Where things stand today
For the MTA, planning for the Red Line is still full steam ahead since Gov. Wes Moore announced in June that the state would pursue a light rail line instead of a bus rapid transit system. The state signed a $100 million contract for pre-engineering work earlier this year, and has tens of millions more allocated in its draft six-year transportation budget.
In an emailed statement via a spokesperson, Moore reiterated that his “promise to leave no one behind remains steadfast, and we will continue to move forward as we always have in our state —together.” He declined to address a question about the Red Line’s future.
Allocated funds don’t make it a done deal, though. The state already had spent hundreds of millions of dollars in planning and engineering when Hogan canceled it. And the Federal Transit Administration had given $900 million to build it.
Hogan sent the money back.
Correction: This story has been updated to correct the number of contracts awarded for Amtrak's Frederick Douglass Tunnel.
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