Voters in Baltimore and Baltimore County will face a similar question at the polls this fall: In these two much-changed jurisdictions, is it time to reshape the legislative bodies that govern them — and how do you ensure they remain representative of residents?

The two ballot questions go in opposite directions.

In Baltimore County, where an all-male and nearly all-white council represents a county where fewer than half of residents are now white, the question proposes adding two seats to the seven-member County Council. Advocates hope it will mean more opportunity for Black, Latino or women candidates to win a seat.

But in Baltimore, which lost about 5% of its population over the last decade, voters will be asked if they want to trim the 15-member council to nine members. Supporters say Baltimore’s City Council is larger than those of other similarly sized jurisdictions and paying fewer council members and staff would save taxpayer money.

The measure is funded almost entirely by someone who doesn’t live in the city, Baltimore County businessman David Smith, raising questions about whether a reshaped council is in the best interest of Baltimore’s residents.

How many people per district?

Among Maryland’s largest jurisdictions, Baltimore’s 15-member council is the biggest, despite the city’s having only the fifth-largest population. Baltimore has just over 583,000 people, according to 2020 Census data. On average, each council district has 41,652 people.

In Baltimore County — the third-largest county in Maryland — each council member represents nearly triple the number of residents as their city counterparts: 122,706.

If both ballot measures pass, this gap would decrease: each Baltimore district would have nearly 73,000 people, while each Baltimore County district would have just under 95,000 people.

The group behind the city measure — People for Elected Accountability and Civic Engagement, or PEACE — has cited Baltimore’s low constituent-to-councilperson ratio relative to surrounding counties. PEACE chairman Jovani Patterson said the council today is too large for the city’s declining population, and downsizing it would free up city funds that could be better spent elsewhere.

But likening a city like Baltimore to suburban counties is an apples-to-oranges comparison, said Matthew Crenson, a professor of urban government at the Johns Hopkins University.

“City residents are, on the average, less well off, less well-housed, less safe,” Crenson said. “They’re going to create more constituents requests for the council.”

Districts with smaller populations can have advantages: Politicians are closer to whom they represent and can more easily handle constituent service requests, like helping residents get potholes filled.

Smaller districts are also more friendly for political newcomers. Kris Miler, a political science professor at the University of Maryland, said the issue comes to simple math: When districts are bigger, races are more expensive.

“If you increase the size of the body, there’s a possibility of new voices at the table,” Miller said. “And if you keep the size or shrink it, you might have more of the expected voices at the table.”

The city’s charter review commission, which reviews changes to the city charter, recommended that Baltimore reduce the size of the council to 12, plus the council president, rather than the more-drastic shift proposed in the ballot measure. Its June report described the ballot measure as a “blatant attempt” by Smith to influence government in the city by “having less targets to influence government policy,” though it acknowledged that Baltimore’s population decrease could warrant a council downsizing.

Dayvon Love, a member of the charter review commission, said he’s unsure that slashing the council size would directly lead to minorities being less represented, but rather that a smaller council makes people like Smith more powerful. Love is the public policy director for Leaders of a Beautiful Struggle, an advocacy think tank.

“It would allow someone like David Smith to have even more influence over the political worldview and perspectives that are represented on the council,” Love said.

“Instead of putting money into 15 races,” he said, “it would just be nine.”

In Baltimore County, where districts are currently triple the population of those in Baltimore, shrinking them could slightly lower barriers to running for office.

Danielle Nicole Singley, a Black woman who ran for the county’s 1st District council seat in 2022, said it would have been easier to connect with voters if the district were smaller. Her race was particularly tough, she said, as she was a newcomer up against a state delegate and was late to throw her name in the hat.

Still, Singley said expanding the council — especially by just two seats — won’t alone encourage women and people new to politics to run. A campaign for a four-seat expansion of the County Council fell short of getting enough signatures to appear on the November ballot

“There would still have to be an intentional push to get women, Black Americans, especially people who are from this area who have been here for a very long time,” Singley said.

Drawing the lines

Changing the number of people on either council raises a second question: How do you redraw the district maps? District lines determine how representative councils are of their population more than the number of council members does, according to experts.

The city and county are operating on different timelines for drawing a new map for the newly structured councils. In Baltimore, if the measure is approved, the mayor will draft a new district map in time for the 2028 Baltimore City elections.

In Baltimore County, the council proposed a new political map for a nine-member council just hours before it voted in July to put the measure on the ballot. Not everyone was thrilled with the map — especially that it was drawn behind closed doors.

The proposed map creates an additional district in Western Baltimore County, effectively splitting the district represented by the county’s sole Black council member, Julian Jones.

Ryan Coleman, the president of the Randallstown NAACP, predicts that the new map might yield one more Black council member from splitting Jones’ district. Baltimore County’s population is about 30% Black.

Mostly white districts tend to elect white council members, he said, while mostly Black districts tend to elect Black council members.

“If six of the seven districts are majority white, then that’s what you’re going to get,” Coleman said. “That’s what history has shown, and that’s what we got.”

Shafiyq Hinton, who ran in the county’s 6th District in 2022, believes the new map directly splits the county along ideological lines: Democrats on the west side and Republicans on the east.

Hinton, a White Marsh resident, said expanding the council is a great idea “in theory.” But residents should have a voice in how the districts are drawn, he said.

“When you have government officials making this decision, it’s going to be a decision made out of political bias,” he said. “Because they’re trying to maintain their power and their control.”

The map, however, isn’t final: the bill allows for changes before October 2025. Council Chairman Izzy Patoka said he hopes to hold multiple public hearings so residents can have input.

Patoka said Republicans on the council wouldn’t approve putting the expansion on the ballot if the map didn’t preserve the current ratio of Democrats and Republicans. The council currently has a 4-3 Democratic majority, and Patoka expects a 5-4 Democratic majority if the council were to expand with the proposed districts. Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-1 in the county, according to state voter registration data.

“If we wanted to go through an academic exercise and not have it move forward, we could have created a different map,” he said.

Roger Hartley, dean of the College of Public Affairs at the University of Baltimore, said the impact of the measure on the Baltimore City Council depends on whether the redistricting splits districts by racial lines or it merges majority-Black and majority-white districts. Still, Baltimore is a majority-Black city, he said, so he doesn’t expect a sea change in the council’s racial diversity.

Andy Ellis, a member of the charter review commission who launched a political committee this week to advocate against the measure, said he’s still worried that having fewer council members gives even more power to people who have the time and money to run for office or donate to campaigns. This undermines the voices of other residents, he said.

“It will hurt democracy, and I think it will hurt representation within the city, and I think will be all that much harder for residents of the city to get answers from or get services from the government,” Ellis said.

Meanwhile, Baltimore council members — nearly half of whom could be out of a job if the measure passes — could have tried to counteract the charter amendment, but decided against it. They’re banking they can convince voters to choose “no” in November.

The last time Baltimore voters rejected a ballot measure was in 2004.

Baltimore Banner reporter Adam Willis contributed to this story.