More Democrats cast ballots in early voting this year, but a higher share of registered Republicans turned out, a Banner analysis of early voting data found, though it can be hard to know what this means for the outcome of the Maryland election.
About 52% of all early votes were cast by Democrats, and 31% of votes were cast by Republicans. Early voting ended Thursday. Almost 1 million Marylanders voted during the eight days of early voting.
Although more Democrats voted early, Republicans turned out at a higher rate. Across the state, roughly 28% of registered Republicans voted early, compared to 22% of registered Democrats.
Around 16% of votes were cast by unaffiliated voters, a group that has grown in Maryland in recent years.
Republicans turning out at a higher rate
Most Maryland counties saw a higher percentage of registered Republicans vote early.
Source: Maryland State Board of Elections • Ramsey Archibald/The Baltimore Banner
This trend held across gender lines.
A higher share of Republican women cast early votes than did Democratic women. That is a pivotal voting bloc in an election that could result in the first female president and a female Maryland senator. Nearly 30% of registered Republican women voted early in Maryland, compared to 23% of registered Democratic women. Among men, 27% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats cast an early ballot.
About 520,000 registered Democrats voted early, compared to around 304,000 Republicans. Unaffiliated voters cast about 159,000 early votes.
Democrats still hold large advantage
More than 52% of votes cast early were from registered Democrats.
Source: Maryland State Board of Elections • Ramsey Archibald/The Baltimore Banner
The Democrats who voted early trended younger than Republicans. About 32% of voting Democrats were younger than 45, compared to 24% of Republicans. Around 40% of unaffiliated voters were younger than 45.
It’s hard to know what any of this means for the outcome of Tuesday’s election. Before the pandemic, Democrats tended to turn out stronger in early voting. But that changed in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic pushed more Democratic voters to cast votes by mail.
In 2020, when mail-in ballots were counted after Election Day, the Democratic margin grew from 6% to 33%. In the presidential elections before that, it fell.
Can early voting predict outcome?
Early voting in previous elections didn't mirror the final outcome closely.
Source: Maryland State Board of Elections • Ramsey Archibald/The Baltimore Banner
The early voting turnout this year was robust — the total number of 994,663 early voters narrowly edged out the 2020 presidential election, which saw 982,985 people vote early.
Comments
Welcome to The Banner's subscriber-only commenting community. Please review our community guidelines.