With Anthony Santander in his last year before free agency, there was an air of finality to one of the enduring questions that has come up during his ascent to All-Star status and each winter when his salary increased through the arbitration process: Exactly how much are the Orioles willing to pay him?

Turns out we might not be done with that after all. Santander’s sensational summer, with him sitting at 35 home runs with an .842 OPS, has not only cemented his import in the Orioles’ lineup but presented Mike Elias and the front office with quite a conundrum for the winter.

No matter the resources or dedication of new ownership under David Rubenstein, this is still a front office that likely looks askance at long-term contracts that begin in age-30 seasons. It’s also one that values having as many good players as possible, and has enjoyed having veteran safeguards in place if a young player who seems ticketed for a role (in this case, Heston Kjerstad in right field) is not ready.

That’s what makes the qualifying offer a unique option for a handful of reasons. It’s effective, it’s expensive, it’s a little risky, and it’s not exactly the best for all parties. But it’s certainly an option.

As a refresher, clubs can offer players entering free agency who spent the entire season on their roster a qualifying offer, which for a set price (last year was $20.325 million) keeps the player on their team for the following season. If the player accepts, he delays free agency for a year. If he rejects it, the club gets a draft pick after the first round.

The Orioles will undoubtedly offer one to starting pitcher Corbin Burnes, barring unforeseen circumstances, but their decision whether to offer one to Santander will be an early inflection point for this fascinating first offseason under Rubenstein.

A salary north of $21 million would be by far the most the Orioles have paid a player under Elias. Offering Santander an $11.7 million salary before arbitration this year felt like a large step on its own. In the case of so many veteran Orioles before him, the club has evaluated a few things — cost, production, and potential value that an acquiring team would send their way in a trade — and decided in favor of lower-cost options on the major league roster and adding talent to the farm system.

Santander felt like a candidate for this ahead of the 2023 season when he ended up signing for $7.4 million and again entering this year’s arbitration process, but he has proven immune. Turns out that a heart-of-the-order switch-hitter who you trust out in right field is worth at least what he’s making this year. If we use the old shorthand of one win above replacement (WAR) costing around $8 million per year in free agency, with Santander already at 2.8 WAR this year according to FanGraphs, a three-win player would theoretically be worth the qualifying offer.

We saw the financial freedom Elias had at the trade deadline to add salary for this year and beyond, so perhaps it’s not too much of a risk to offer Santander nearly double his salary for one year, given how productive he is and how well the Orioles know what they’d get by keeping him.

Santander’s choice would be an interesting one. He expressed his desire to stick around long-term last week, but it’s if he would sign on for just one year. I’m not as sure as some that he’d reject it. There are plenty of reasons to give him a three or four-year deal worth at least what the qualifying offer would pay him for one year with the Orioles, and also countless examples of players who received a qualifying offer being made to wait out free agency without much of a market — even players as productive as Santander. He would essentially be weighing whether making around $21 million for 2025 and then a likely shorter free agent deal beginning in 2026 would bring him more money than whatever deal materializes this offseason, which could be limited if he has the qualifying offer attached to him.

While the Orioles will gain a draft pick if he rejects the qualifying offer, the team that signs him would lose a pick, the placement of which varies based on the contract length and who signs him. That has severely hampered the market for such players.

That could be an incentive for Santander to accept, which would be a boon for the Orioles and give them another year for their right field replacement options to mature in the same way Colton Cowser has from 2023 to 2024. It would probably be good for Santander, too, even if it creates uncertainty down the road, to have another year of production in a comfortable environment.

The life of a slugger for hire isn’t for everyone. Here’s hoping the Orioles find a way to keep Santander from that path, even if it’s just for a year.

Ballpark Chatter

“I would say overall, there’s times my stuff has played and gotten me through some things, but all in all, my consistency has just been really terrible, and when you’re inconsistent, you put guys on base and things happen.”

– Craig Kimbrel after earning the loss Sunday

As a long-view Kimbrel guy whose perspective was that it often wasn’t going to be fun but over the course of a full season he’d provide exactly what’s expected, I have to say this lengthy rough stretch for him has been challenging. He’s being used sparsely and not as the closer, which is what happens when a closer doesn’t have it. And even as the full-season stats are basically fine, a bullpen that features a luxury item you’re not comfortable taking out of the garage is a bullpen that’s not operating at full capacity. The Orioles’ pitching coaches have done a very good job on so many fronts this year. Getting Kimbrel back on track for October is their largest challenge.

🚀 The Talent Pipeline

The Orioles didn’t just add to their major league roster at last month’s trade deadline. They also added another promising pitcher in Patrick Reilly, a 22-year-old right-hander who came over from the Pirates for Norfolk utility man Billy Cook. Reilly had a 1.16 WHIP and 3.38 ERA with 108 strikeouts in 88 innings at High-A Greensboro, and he hasn’t allowed an earned run since the trade in 7 1/3 innings over two appearances at Double-A Bowie, striking out nine with a 1.09 WHIP. He seems like a nice blend of present-day ability and upside, given his high pedigree (Vanderbilt) and high-level stuff that he’s working to harness.

Stats

.824

Ryan O’Hearn is one of four key Orioles, along with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Ryan Mountcastle, who has hit just one home run since the All-Star break. But rather impressively, he still has an .824 OPS in that span. Henderson, too, is faring well with an .811 OPS, while Mountcastle and Rutschman are at .673 and .661, respectively. Others are picking up the slack, to be sure, but it’s fascinating to see which players can still contribute in what’s turning into a lengthy power drought.

📰 For further reading

⬆ Level up! This is a fascinating look from Andy at how swinging a slightly larger bat has helped fuel Cowser’s second-half tear. (The Baltimore Banner)

📈 Power rankings: It’s best to take power rankings or anything of the sort for what they’re worth, which isn’t a ton. That said, it’s interesting that there’s such pessimism in some parts around this Orioles team as they’re first in MLB’s power rankings this week. (MLB.com)

🔧 Fixing Trevor Rogers: As good as Zach Eflin has been, it will probably be the Trevor Rogers trade that defines this deadline for the Orioles. Here, again from Andy, is how the team is looking to make him as good as he recently was. (The Baltimore Banner)