There’s no ignoring the value of Cedric Mullins in center field for the Orioles. Even as Mullins slumped at the plate at times this season, his steady presence in the field bailed out Baltimore’s pitching staff, enthralled fans and prompted excessive use of a much-loved meme: “I can’t escape him!”
Throughout Mullins’ career, manager Brandon Hyde has lauded the center fielder for his Gold Glove-caliber defense.
But Mullins has been a finalist just once, in 2022, and he missed out that season on the coveted defensive award. And again when Gold Glove winners are announced Sunday night, Mullins will not be in consideration.
Was he snubbed?
No. Not this year.
As consistent as Mullins has been in center field, he wasn’t one of the best defensive outfielders, according to MLB’s Statcast metrics. That doesn’t mean there aren’t questions about some of the finalists — the New York Yankees’ Juan Soto, with a negative-1 fielding run value, per Statcast, is a finalist in right field — but for the most part the center fielders up for recognition are deserving based on advanced statistics.
The selection process, according to Major League Baseball, is based on voting by managers and up to six coaches from each team (and they can’t vote for players on their own clubs). The votes account for 75% of the selection, while the SABR Defensive Index makes up the rest.
SDI draws on multiple measures of defensive statistics, tracking batted ball locations and data from Statcast, Sports Info Solutions and STATS Perform.
The 2024 SDI has yet to be publicly updated for games after Aug. 11. But, for the first portion of the season, Mullins was credited with negative-2.3 SDI, ahead of only Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge among regulars.
Using Statcast, which has more up-to-date figures through the end of the season, Mullins was rated more positively but wasn’t near the top of the majors.
Mullins finished the season with a fielding run value of 3 — ranking 18th in the majors among center fielders with at least 750 innings. It’s a metric that captures a player’s overall defensive performance by accounting for different measures, such as range and throwing, and weighting certain stats to create a scale that allows players from all positions to be compared to each other.
Mullins has great range, but his arm has long been a weak point. For his throwing, Mullins was credited with negative-1 run value.
To break it down further, Statcast ranks Mullins’ range (outs above average) at a 3, good for 25th among center fielders. He received his worst rating on shallow balls he has to break in on, with a negative-2 rating. Still, Mullins finished with a success rate of 91%, 1% better than what was estimated by Statcast’s measures.
The three American League center field finalists received more favorable Statcast figures. The analytics gave Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox a 12 fielding run value, Jake Meyers of the Houston Astros also received a 12 despite a poorly rated arm, and the Toronto Blue Jays’ Daulton Varsho, who played only 672 innings in center, led all center fielders with a 17 fielding run value.
All three players ranked at or near the top on the SDI midseason fielding report, as well.
Mullins has finished in the top five of the majors in outs above average twice in his career, in 2021 (10) and 2022 (9). He was a snub in 2021, not even named a finalist, and he missed out on winning a Gold Glove in 2022 to Myles Straw (13 outs above average).
The Orioles’ Colton Cowser and Ryan Mountcastle, meanwhile, deserved their Gold Glove finalist nominations, according to the midseason SDI rankings. Cowser led American League left fielders with a 5 SDI, and first baseman Mountcastle was third in AL SDI at 3.9.
They could become the first Orioles Gold Glovers since Ramón Urías won for his work at third base in 2022.
Mullins, though, missed out on the award again. The advanced metrics may show he wasn’t deserving, but the eye test — an unscientific model — says Mullins is still a joy to watch.
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