They each had such glowing remarks about the other — Mike Elias of Anthony Santander and Santander of the Orioles at large.
Elias, the general manager, called Santander a hero for Baltimore. He noted how the outfielder was here when the new regime took over at the end of 2018 and how Santander played a large role in turning the Orioles from a laugher into a contender. Santander, meanwhile, wasn’t ready to look forward.
“I only have a chance to think about my broken heart,” he said shortly after the Orioles lost in the postseason, potentially ending Santander’s tenure here.
That’s all well and good. But what comes next is separate from sentiment. The decision ahead of Santander and the Orioles may well be the largest domino in determining how Baltimore’s offseason transpires.
With him, the outfield of Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser and Santander seems set for at least another year. Without him, there’s a larger question mark and more urgency in the free agent market.
When making that decision, Elias will set aside everything but numbers.
“I love the guy, personally,” Elias said shortly after the Orioles’ season ended with a wild-card loss to the Kansas City Royals. “I think everyone in that locker room does. But it’s Major League Baseball. We’ve got business coming up. There’s the time and the place for that, but it’s not here and now.”
The time will come soon enough. Teams have five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether to tender eligible players a one-year qualifying offer. Santander is a prime candidate to receive one — worth $21.05 million for 2025, according to ESPN — and it will be up to the outfielder whether to accept it.
Conventional wisdom assumes that Santander and his agency will test the open market rather than taking the one-year deal. Last year, for instance, only seven players received qualifying offers. All seven declined it in favor of free agency.
Santander is coming off the best season of his career. He slugged 44 home runs. Although his batting average (.235) and on-base percentage (.308) left something to be desired, he finished with a career-high 102 RBIs.
As a result, his market value may never be higher. An average annual salary of around $21 million isn’t out of the realm of possibility on a multiyear contract from Baltimore or another team. And, should Santander decline the qualifying offer, the Orioles will receive a compensation pick in the draft to soften the blow.
Still, “you take away 44 homers, that’s a big deal,” manager Brandon Hyde said. “That’s a heck of a year. So I’m really happy for Anthony. It’s somebody that we care deeply about, somebody that was in my first spring training in 2019 and saw him switch hit right away. I had no idea who he was, and it’s been a fun ride with him.”
If Santander departs
If the ride ends here, the question ahead of the Orioles is: How do they replace a player who produced at that high a level?
The answer may start with Heston Kjerstad, the outfield prospect who has played parts of two seasons, but it may continue with the signing of an additional bat for the middle of the lineup.
Kjerstad is limited to playing in the corner outfield, and due to the deep left field at Camden Yards, the 25-year-old’s most clear place at home would be right field. In a small sample, the left-handed hitter has shown a knack for power and average, finishing his 39 games for Baltimore in 2024 with a .253 average and a .745 OPS.
Given that Kjerstand is relatively unproven — even with tremendous minor league success — Baltimore may be motivated to look at a free agent who could provide thump. Perhaps they look at Christian Walker, a first baseman, to supplement the lineup. A right-handed outfielder (to provide a platoon split with Kjerstad) of interest could be Hunter Renfroe, who has a player option with Kansas City worth $7.6 million. Additionally, a major splash in the outfield would be Teoscar Hernández, Mark Canha or Tyler O’Neill.
Or the Orioles could look to re-sign Austin Slater, a lower-value pending free agent whom they added ahead of the trade deadline. Slater, Canha and Renfroe didn’t perform at high levels in 2024, while Hernández and O’Neill impressed. But, should it be a platoon role, the Orioles may feel confident in finding a bounce-back candidate.
If Santander accepts the qualifying offer
If Santander sticks around for an additional season, the Orioles maintain a switch-hitting power threat in the heart of their lineup while leaving the door open for Kjerstad to take over right field in the near future.
Santander’s return would be welcome, although there were parts of his game that drew concern. His 33.8% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranked in the 16th percentile. He squared up only 22.3% of the balls with which he made contact, per Statcast, which ranked in the 22nd percentile. And his on-base percentage was on the lower end among Orioles hitters with at least 400 at-bats.
Still, the positives largely outweighed those negatives; he led the team in RBIs and home runs and finished second in OPS+ (134; 100 is league average). And it would potentially give Kjerstad a full season in the majors to adapt and prepare for a larger role come 2026.
If Santander signs a long-term extension
With a new ownership group at the helm for its first offseason, it remains to be seen how much of a splash it is willing to make. On a New York Post podcast this month, Elias said the ownership group, which is led by billionaire philanthropist David Rubenstein, has “the wherewithal to allow us to run this franchise optimally.”
There was little indication whether that meant extensions would be coming, although Elias noted that there are multiple players he and the rest of the front office wish they had under contract for longer.
“I don’t talk about what we’re doing or not doing, but it would certainly be front and center for a front office to be working on those things,” Elias said of extending players. “But they’re not easy to line up on, and effort doesn’t always equate to results.”
Even if Santander declines the qualifying offer, he could re-sign in Baltimore for a deal more to his preference. For the soon-to-be 30-year-old, that could be a three- or four-year deal worth about $20 million a year — slightly lower in average annual value compared to the one-year qualifying offer but with long-term stability.
Should the Orioles seal that sort of contract with Santander, it might allow them to include Kjerstad in a trade package for another high-end starting pitcher. There would be more time to allow outfield prospects Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vance Honeycutt and others to develop before they’re required in the majors.
Whatever course of action, Santander appears to be the key figure heading into the offseason.
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