Grayson Rodriguez, by virtue of once being a decorated Orioles pitching prospect, only had two paths set before him.

He could fail to live up to those high expectations and have a career that serves as another reminder that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Or he could simply begin his career that way in Baltimore before going on to reach great heights elsewhere, and be the latest point of evidence for that old baseball adage about the fickle nature of pitching prospects applying more to this city than any other.

Tuesday’s trade, which sent the 26-year-old former first-round pick to the Los Angeles Angels for outfielder Taylor Ward, brings the latter into alarming focus.

It’s hard to get past what could be lost here. Rodriguez was drafted 11th overall in 2018 by the last front office and blossomed into the game’s best pitching prospect under Mike Elias’ group, debuting in 2023 and pitching to a 2.58 ERA in the second half of that year as the team pushed for the AL East title.

But a recurring lat issue, plus an elbow injury that ultimately required debridement surgery this year, mean Rodriguez hasn’t pitched for the team since July 31, 2024.

He won’t again, and it’s hard to even get to the implications for the 2026 Orioles without acknowledging how this trade could haunt them — and how the specter of similar deals that have backfired for the franchise makes that fear much worse.

Now, none of this baggage was packed by Elias or his front office. This group bears no responsibility for whatever you feel when someone mentions “the cavalry” or Matt Hobgood or Dylan Bundy or Hunter Harvey, nor did it execute any of the trades that reverberated for years after they were executed. Even so, we’re talking about an imposing burden.

There was Jake Arrieta, traded to the Cubs in 2013 only to become a Cy Young winner in 2015 and a World Series champion in 2016.

There was Eduardo Rodriguez, traded from the minors to Boston for key bullpen piece Andrew Miller at the 2014 deadline. Rodriguez would have been the best pitcher in any Orioles rotation over the last decade if not for Kevin Gausman, their 2012 first-round pick who had settled into being a fine mid-rotation starter here before the team attached him to Darren O’Day in a salary dump trade at the 2018 deadline. As evidenced by his 3.36 ERA this decade, two All-Star appearances and multiple years earning Cy Young votes, Gausman had more to unlock.

To varying degrees, the Orioles cut bait out of some combination of frustration and competing priorities. It didn’t feel like Arrieta was ever going to figure it out here, and the Orioles coveted Scott Feldman’s steadying presence as they made a run at a second straight postseason appearance that was ultimately unsuccessful.

Eduardo Rodriguez was someone the club didn’t want to part with, but he was frustrating some in the organization with a down year and slow return from a knee injury while Miller was among the game’s most dominant relievers.

Gausman wasn’t the ace the Orioles drafted him to be, but he was certainly good enough to get the Braves to take the roughly $11 million off the Orioles’ books as they tore things down in 2018.

I just don’t know where to drop my marker on the frustration-opportunism scale with this Grayson Rodriguez trade. I’ve always been a believer from the time I saw Rodriguez dominate a Delmarva matinee back in 2019. He felt inevitable to me, which is ironic because his path to Baltimore was so delayed, initially by a lat strain in the minors in 2022 and then a few days at the start of 2023 due to him being left off the opening day roster. Once he found his form, he was a key cog on that division title team, but a lot has changed since then.

He wasn’t available down the stretch in 2024 and for all of 2025, with the lat issue being the primary concern and bone spurs in his elbow also keeping him off the mound.

Elias said himself last week at the GM meetings that it was hard to count on Rodriguez for 2026. Building a rotation for next season was always going to be a unique challenge given Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are returning from Tommy John surgery, and Rodriguez made a third workload concern in the bunch.

But the Orioles lamented Rodriguez’s absence as a reason that their rotation lacked consistent quality through all of 2025, so sure they were that he could make the leap to reliable rotation-topper status. They know how good he can be — the explosive fastball, the uniquely effective changeup, the ability to mix pitches in the zone — and have always coveted club control, which Rodriguez has four more seasons of.

They still traded him, knowing what can happen if Rodriguez is able to get on a mound.

Ward is far more of a known quantity, especially when it comes to the 2026 Orioles. He hit 36 home runs with a .792 OPS last year, is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $13.7 million in his final season before free agency and adds a right-handed hitting outfielder that the club has been looking for.

He strikes out more than you’d like but also gets on base. He is a relatively low-risk solution to the Orioles’ outfield pursuits, albeit one acquired in an incredibly risky trade that also forces recalibration of the rest of their offseason plans.

Among the questions raised: Even without being able to count on Rodriguez, have they created too much work to do this winter in terms of bolstering the pitching staff? Is there a place for Ryan Mountcastle on a roster with Ward and Tyler O’Neill in the corners against lefties, Coby Mayo at first in those situations, and Adley Rutschman often the DH?

And if uncertainty over availability led to this trade, could they be looking to cover a bunch of O’Neill’s salary in a trade that doesn’t net anything meaningful but removes the opportunity cost of having O’Neill in the mix and allows them to still pursue a top outfield bat in free agency?

These are the questions that matter. They will determine how the Craig Albernaz era begins, how Elias is viewed as a win-now executive and how satisfied this ownership group led by David Rubenstein and Michael Arougheti will be in their hope for a winning club to bring life back to Camden Yards.

They’re also impossible considerations to make, given why we’re thinking about them, even as you add the context of Elias’ mostly favorable trade record, particularly with the Angels, who gave the Orioles Bradish for Bundy.

The Orioles traded Grayson Rodriguez. You can legitimately wonder if he’s even going to have a prime, but if he does, he’d be entering it the moment he dons an Angels uniform. And for that reason alone, any real question about what this deal means for the Orioles comes after the inescapable one.

Are they going to regret this?