A week into the Orioles’ offseason, it doesn’t feel right to say it’s gone about as expected, even as it has. Expectations are a funny thing. The more I think about it, the clearer it’s become that my own expectations for what they do this offseason are higher than ever.
The first 10 months of this year — from John Angelos selling the team to the current ownership group led by David Rubenstein and Michael Arougheti and the trade for Corbin Burnes shortly thereafter to the team’s flurry of July trades and second straight playoff ouster by sweep — have put to bed a lot of the modest hopes of the rebuilding years.
Given the homegrown core in place and the Orioles’ potential to win with this group, plus the financial backing that a team should expect in that position, there’s no reason for executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias to treat this offseason as anything other than an opportunity to improve his club, with no caveats. It’ll be February before we know whether he has.
Right now, between the Orioles’ early contract option and qualifying offer decisions, it feels as if at least this much is true: If you’re worth the money, they’re more than willing to pay it. That’s always been true to an extent, but it feels more unqualified than ever.
The qualifying offers for Anthony Santander and Corbin Burnes feel more procedural than anything, but with even the slightest chance Santander might accept it, you’re still putting yourself on the hook for potentially spending $21 million on a player. Those qualifying offers also open the door to more meaningful spending elsewhere, through the draft picks they’ll yield if the players sign multiyear contracts with other clubs.
They’ll receive a pick after the first round if the contract is worth more than $50 million — and Burnes’ surely will be — while a contract less than that would bring the Orioles a pick before the start of the third round. Those could be helpful because they’d offset the potential loss of a pick if the Orioles sign a player who himself received the qualifying offer from his old team. Speaking at this week’s general manager’s meetings, Elias said the Orioles are looking for a starter to fill out the rotation if Burnes doesn’t re-sign.
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If the Orioles want to shop at the top of the free agent market for qualifying offer recipients Max Fried or Sean Manaea, they’d lose their third-highest draft pick for that signing. Should Burnes and Santander sign elsewhere, the Orioles stand to have five first-day picks and thus less impediment to losing one — even if it turns out Santander signs for more than $50 million and they receive a pick in the 30s, only to dispense with it to sign a free agent.
That would be a loss but one that is worth it to add to the top half of the rotation for a playoff contender. And this even being a conversation speaks to just how far the goalposts have moved for this team. The Orioles’ signings in free agency have been sensible and prudent, the kind of high-floor, low-ceiling additions a team with only so much to spend makes to ensure it gets at least some return for it.
I’m sure every dollar still counts, but they’re not afraid to give players they think are worth it real money, and they showed that this week. In picking up the $8 million options for Ryan O’Hearn and Seranthony Domínguez, plus Cionel Pérez’s $2.2 million option, the Orioles were sensible in assessing the value these players would bring and contributing real money to keep them here.
Neither O’Hearn nor Domínguez is likely to play as meaningful a role as he did in 2024 again next year. Félix Bautista will return as closer, pushing Domínguez into a still-impactful setup role, while O’Hearn will probably not be the everyday player he was in Ryan Mountcastle’s absence. (That said, keeping him away from left-handed pitching wouldn’t harm anyone.) Pérez was extremely valuable and was worth the price. That Danny Coulombe, whose $4 million option was declined, was deemed expendable speaks to the confidence the Orioles have in Pérez, Keegan Akin and Gregory Soto, who will be the lefties in relief.
There was some displeasure at Coulombe being let go, which is understandable, as are the reasons they would have made that decision. But there’s a time and place not long ago in Orioles history when all of these options would have felt too pricey and likely been declined. That was because of ownership, yes, but also because the team wasn’t going anywhere anyway.
Now they clearly are — and the Orioles are acting like it. If that feels like faint praise, that’s because it is. It’ll take months to figure out how strongly they follow through on the hard part and spend real money. It’s just a relief we aren’t wringing our hands about these decisions and are looking forward to moves that match the team’s championship ambitions.
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