The Orioles didn’t lose former MVP Jason Giambi in free agency, but they may as well be following the same principle that was made famous in the 2011 movie “Moneyball.”

“Guys, you’re still trying to replace Giambi,” said Brad Pitt, who portrayed then-Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane in the film adaptation of Michael Lewis’ book. “I told you we can’t do it, and we can’t do it. Now, what we might be able to do is recreate him — recreate him in the aggregate.”

Here Baltimore is, in a similar position, after the departure of outfielder Anthony Santander. There was little surprise when news broke Monday that Santander agreed to a five-year deal worth $92.5 million with the Toronto Blue Jays, according to his agency, Beverly Hills Sports Council. Santander’s impending departure was expected once the Orioles signed outfielder Tyler O’Neill last month.

But with the move now official, the Orioles are left in a similar situation as Beane with the 2002 A’s all those years ago, which has been immortalized by Hollywood. They can’t replace Santander. But they can — and are clearly planning to — recreate him in the aggregate through a combination of O’Neill and Heston Kjerstad.

Neither of those players by themselves match what Santander did last year: an .814 on-base-plus-slugging percentage, 44 homers and 102 runs batted in. At 30, Santander is still projected to be a significant offensive threat for several more years.

“I always felt he was the most important hitter in their lineup,” said a National League scout assigned to the mid-Atlantic region. “I think best-case, everyone maxes out and they match him up perfectly all year, then yeah, maybe you can cut it even and replace that [Santander’s production]. But I think it’s going to be tough.”

In relying on O’Neill and Kjerstad (and Colton Cowser, who became the everyday left fielder last season and likely continues that role), the Orioles went with a cheaper path. But it’s not without risk. Should O’Neill produce well in 2025, he can exercise an opt-out after one year of his three-year deal, leaving the Orioles short again. Should he underperform, Baltimore is likely stuck carrying a heavy contract ($49.5 million over three seasons).

With Kjerstad yet to reach arbitration, he’s under team control for multiple seasons and is an inexpensive — albeit unproven — option. There’s still risk there, of course, should he not develop the way the Orioles believe is possible.

Looking at past performances and an average of two projection systems, however, Baltimore can view its outfield mix in a positive light. In the aggregate, it could out-produce Santander. Here’s why.

The career splits

The benefit of Santander in the lineup every day is his all-around ability. As a switch-hitter, Santander had very little difference when facing right-handed pitching (.772 OPS) and left-handed pitching (.786 OPS).

The difference is much starker for O’Neill, especially recently. In his introductory press conference, O’Neill expressed belief he could perform better against right-handed pitching. But last year with the Boston Red Sox, O’Neill clobbered lefties, racking up a 1.179 OPS, while his OPS dipped to .693 against righties. In his career, there’s still a sizable OPS gap: .923 vs. .751.

Kjerstad, despite having limited time in the majors, has shown signs of being less platoon-reliant. The 2020 first-round pick has a .744 OPS against right-handers and a .766 OPS in left-on-left matchups. And when his minor league statistics are included, Kjerstad shows further signs of his ability, with an .819 OPS against lefties and a .917 OPS against righties.

To boil that down, Santander’s even split statistics give him a place in the batting order against any pitcher. But when manager Brandon Hyde fills out the lineup card in 2025, he can mix and match to his liking. O’Neill will be a staple against southpaws. That can allow Cowser more days off, avoiding left-on-left matchups, and it should give Kjerstad the opportunities he has been lacking in 2023 and 2024.

One way to get a sense of how these players might perform is to look at two of the main projection systems for Major League Baseball: Steamer and ZiPS. Both use past performances and aging trends to calculate a future stat line for players. FanGraphs helpfully averages the projections from both to create a full look at what could happen in 2025.

Baltimore’s outfielders aren’t expected to replicate Santander’s numbers alone, and it’s reflected in their projected wins above replacement for 2025. Santander, who is coming off a season in which he produced 2.9 wins above replacement, is projected to take a modest step back to 2.6 WAR next season, according to FanGraphs.

Kjerstad, who had only 114 plate appearances last year, is projected for 1.1 WAR, and O’Neill is listed at a projected 2.1 WAR. Adding them creates an apples-to-oranges comparison, given it would be one player (Santander) against two. But used in the correct situations with their splits in mind, the duo could accomplish something near the level of Santander.

And in the future? It could be more one-to-one if strides are made by the young Orioles.

“In a couple years or whatever, maybe he [Kjerstad] could replace Santander almost by himself,” said the National League scout. “But for this year, I don’t know. It’ll be a little tricky.”

Potentially more opportunities for Kjerstad

The conventional wisdom, given Cowser’s breakout 2024 season, is to assume O’Neill will feature heavily in an outfield that primarily includes Cowser in left field and Cedric Mullins in center.

But there is an argument to be made, as the season goes on, that Kjerstad could receive more regular playing time while at-bats for Mullins decrease. With Cowser’s ability to play center field and Mullins’ lack of success against lefties (.506 OPS vs. southpaws in 2024), a trio of Cowser, O’Neill and Kjerstad could prove preferable in those situations.

Kjerstad, of course, hasn’t featured enough at the major league level to truly project how he might perform over an entire season. But based on his small sample size with the Orioles — and his overall metrics through the minors — Kjerstad is seen within the industry as having the potential to become a platoon-proof hitter, while questions remain on whether O’Neill and Mullins will reach an equilibrium.

“I never felt like he [Kjerstad] was a serious platoon guy since he made a lot of contact regardless of what side,” said another National League scout who has tracked Baltimore’s minor league system. “He did a good job keeping his body compact and bat head within the zone. But he does chase a lot.”

In 2023 and 2024, Kjerstad chased 35.2% of pitches outside the zone. But he’s not alone in that high volume. Santander, for instance, chased on 33.8% of those pitches last year.

“There’s a lot of guys with chase on spin that still crush the mistakes in zone,” the second scout said. “Kjerstad can do that.”

Added the first scout: “Watching Kjerstad over the last few years, I feel that from a scouting perspective, he definitely has the ability to be an everyday guy and produce against both sides if given the opportunity, which is a big part of it, right? You gotta give him a chance, and that’s the tricky part of it, too. But I think he has the ability to do it — maybe not right away this year, but definitely at some point — to be a solid everyday guy.”

How the Orioles will complete their outfield puzzle remains somewhat of a guess. But with four players expected to be in the mix for regular at-bats — Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad and O’Neill — the group, they hope, will fill the void left by Santander.

It could work. It might not. That’s the gamble when following a “Moneyball”-esque approach, and that is what’s ahead for the Santander-less Orioles.