Let me start by saying I reserve the right to change my mind on this.

Coming off two spring trainings where I’ve ended up being as worked up as I possibly can about Grayson Rodriguez not making the opening day roster in 2023 and Jackson Holliday enduring the same fate last year, it doesn’t feel like we’re due for another round.

Saying this has the makings of a drama-free camp out loud probably ensures that won’t be the case, but I’m quite looking forward to the possibility of it.

The circumstances are hard to replicate a third time in a row, which has a lot to do with this forecast on my part. In each of those cases, there was an avenue for a highly touted young player to step into a role on the major league team out of camp that ultimately didn’t happen. My issue was less with the possible ulterior motives (service time manipulation) and more with the way the team publicly presented the opportunities for the players — effectively putting the ball in Rodriguez’s and Holliday’s respective courts — and then made the choice that best suited the team despite that.

This time around, there aren’t really any parallels. The only way a healthy Heston Kjerstad gets left off the team is if he has a disastrous spring, and even then he may come north with the club. Same goes for Holliday, to be frank. Coby Mayo doesn’t have an obvious pathway to an everyday role, and I suspect he’ll be tasked with playing first base regularly at Triple-A Norfolk no matter what happens with those above him on the depth chart. Samuel Basallo isn’t ready.

I suppose it could be frustrating if Cade Povich gets squeezed out of the rotation, considering how high the team is on him and how well he pitched in September, but that feels a little more understandable given the experienced depth above him. If he makes the roster, it will be on merit. If he doesn’t, it probably won’t have a lot to do with him.

But even if the landscape for such decisions wasn’t so fallow, I like to think it wouldn’t be such a big deal this time around. Not because my stance on the players has moved at all. And certainly not because of the feedback I get from club officials; I mostly just appreciate the periodic reminders that they are loyal readers.

I also haven’t come off my stance that even players who prove to not be ready need that experience in the majors to learn from. If anything, I believe that more strongly than I ever have. It’s more that the Orioles aren’t really in the place to accommodate that in the way they have been in past years, when the nightly outcomes came second to the long-term goals. Now, the short-term goals are to win as many games as possible to get to the playoffs and see what happens in October, and too much development time at this level can run counter to that.

So, no tantrums from me this spring — for now. I count on the Orioles to keep their end of the bargain and sustain this equilibrium over the coming weeks, though.

Free Agent of the Week

James McCann

I expect there will be some free agent movement this week as teams can start freeing up roster space using the 60-day injured list for their long-term absentees, and that could benefit the likes of John Means, as I’ve laid out here before. Besides him, only two former Orioles are unsigned: James McCann and Craig Kimbrel.

Kimbrel has probably pitched his last major league game, but McCann feels like someone with more to give. He’s in a position to be judicious about where he lands, and it’s possible he’s simply holding out for an opportunity that works well for him and his family. But even as a potential veteran to help young catchers in camp, he is someone who should be reporting somewhere this week.

Talent Pipeline

The Orioles’ plans to build a new player development complex in Sarasota, Florida, give me another proverbial curtain to ask permission to peek behind. I want to learn how the club looks to sustain its status as a perennial contender going forward. I’ve been rebuffed on my attempts to get into the pitching lab in Bel Air, but maybe this will be different.

I will say this — having these resources in one place is going to be helpful for all involved. I’ve seen a mix of coaches, coordinators and front office personnel set up a portable TrackMan unit to track exit speeds using various weighted bats in an affiliate batting cage before. That’s the kind of curiosity at play here, and these resources are going to reward that and help drive outcomes that will help the Orioles for a long time.

Further reading

🔄 How does the rotation stack up? Danielle’s breakdown on the rotation illustrates well that there’s a lot of depth here. I remember thinking last year that simply having a lot of good pitchers in the big league rotation covered for the Orioles’ lack of usable alternatives in Triple-A. That won’t be the case this year, for better or worse.

🧐 Infield analysis: There’s a lot of room for improvement on the infield, as Andy pointed out. There seem to be candidates to provide it, which is good news.

🤞 Rooting for Mancini: I am incredibly happy for Trey Mancini to get another shot, and incredibly hopeful this works out for him.