I don’t think we’re ever going to run out of occasions to talk about do-overs for the Orioles’ 2024 trade deadline. Mike Elias has been clear that he overdid it a bit in reinforcing the pitching staff, sacrificing a pair of hitters who could have helped down the stretch in Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers for lefty Trevor Rogers. And I will be big sad until further notice about the trade that sent Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace to the Phillies for Gregory Soto. But here’s a what-if that I think feels relevant to where things are this winter, where the Orioles keep doing things and it’s broadly considered insufficient: If they’d executed those deadline trades this winter instead of in July, would this offseason be considered more of a success than it is now?

I say this as I look at projections and see Zach Eflin leading the rotation in wins above replacement and remember that he was really good for the Orioles after they sent three good prospects to the Rays for him ahead of the deadline. Eflin had a 2.60 ERA — albeit with a 3.94 FIP — and a 1.12 WHIP in nine starts and is comfortably a No. 2 starter. He’s not an ace, but if the Orioles’ winter haul included him, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, it would probably feel like they did a much better job reinforcing the rotation than it does now in this post-Corbin Burnes world.

Similarly, trading Austin Hays for Seranthony Domínguez would have felt like a move that was additive to the bullpen now. The Soto and Rogers trades would still be harder to see upside of, given the long-term sacrifices made, but Rogers would be a fine reclamation gambit now as opposed to the underwhelming in-season addition he proved to be. When considering this winter’s moves — signing Sugano and Morton, plus outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez — they’re basically regarded as doing a lot with a little impact (by many, not necessarily me), and folding last summer’s trades into that batch of acquisitions might only move the needle slightly.

The point is they’ve all happened with an eye toward helping the 2025 Orioles win games, which if you’ll humor me, is how a team gets to the playoffs, where the Orioles will ultimately be judged. I’m not sitting here saying that this is the right way to do things. The list of first-round playoff losers is lousy with “smart” teams that win somewhere between 84 and 94 games each year and don’t have the horses to compete in October. The Orioles absolutely could have them in the form of their homegrown core, and they could break through that first-round ceiling in a unique way with the money they’re spending on quality depth.

There’s almost a comfort in the ongoing analysis that the Orioles, once chastised for not doing anything, are now simply doing the wrong things. OK. Any time the consensus has polarized around one thing the Orioles should do for optics, or to fit a narrative, or because it’s what they’re supposed to do at this stage in their competitive cycle, they don’t. Look at literally all the top prospects they haven’t traded. Look at literally all the free agent pitchers they’ve let sign elsewhere.

And yet look at all the trades they made in July. Look at the money they’ve spent this winter. Combine those two together and the Orioles have done a lot to improve the 2025 roster compared to where it would have been without those moves. You might even say that what they’ve done has made it so an ace actually would put them over the top, which would make those clamoring for one correct in their assessment, even if it discounts everything else that’s happened so far.

Free agent of the week

Jeff Hoffman

This segment felt like a better idea before the Orioles completed most of their business by early January, but I have been thinking lately about Jeff Hoffman, a reliever most recently with the Phillies who many teams are reportedly considering transitioning to a starter’s role. The Orioles were reportedly interested in former Yankees closer Clay Holmes as a starter, and while they have more starters now than would seem to fit in a five-man rotation, having someone with that kind of high-quality stuff who can pitch in a variety of roles would help add a little more upside to the pitching staff. He’d probably prefer a clearer opportunity to start than exists here, but there may not be a better place to add 40 or so innings to last year’s workload and slowly transition out of the bullpen than Baltimore.

📰 For further reading

😳 Ripken breaks up with IronBirds: This was a fascinating read on the future of the IronBirds now that the Ripken family sold the team to Attain Sports, the company that owns Bowie and Frederick. We’ll be lucky to have Orioles affiliates so close no matter how it shakes out, and it seems like there’s plenty unsettled before we know for sure where they are in the long term. (The Baltimore Banner)

😡 More MASN problems: The Orioles keep making good steps toward modernizing and improving their business operations side. Still, another MASN lawsuit, this to certify the rights fees paid to the Nationals through 2026, was a reminder that these things take time. I believe it will be a bright day for everyone in the B&O Warehouse if they sell MASN and remove these headaches once and for all. (The Baltimore Banner)

🤔 Some solid advice: Andy had some good ideas here about how the Orioles could quickly improve the fan experience at Camden Yards. (The Baltimore Banner)