Above all else, the Orioles’ last few seasons have hammered home the idea that high-level starting pitching and an abundance of major league-caliber arms are the separator, with an outsize influence on how the team performs.

And, because we know they’re expensive, both in terms of real-life dollars and prospect value in trades, the most effective way to accumulate them is to develop them yourself.

It’s been a long road toward that for the Orioles, but the progress is apparent and approaching Baltimore, both with recent draftees and the fruits of their burgeoning international program.

The first two years of this series highlighted future rotation pieces and eventual trade chips, and gave early breakdowns of the Orioles’ top young pitching prospects. And we’re back for Year 3, using firsthand observation, data analysis and insights from the pitchers and their coaches, along with opinions from professional scouts who cover the Orioles, to provide as much information as possible about these prospects.

First up is Trey Gibson, a strikeout artist who is carving up Double-A just two years after signing as an undrafted free agent.

Where did he come from?

Gibson had a dominant outing at one of the biggest high school showcases in the country, the WWBA World Championship in Jupiter, Florida, in October 2019 to hop onto the Orioles’ radar. He was sitting in the low 90s and throwing four pitches for strikes — which would make anyone take notice — but he wasn’t selected in the pandemic-shortened, five-round MLB draft in 2020 in part because of a high bonus request to sign him out of his commitment to Liberty University.

He pitched well for the Flames as a freshman, striking out over a batter per inning in 13 starts, but struggled as his stuff backed up as a sophomore. The Orioles thought he might be an early-second-day pick given his body, pitch mix and durability, but Gibson didn’t pitch as a junior. He popped up in the Cape Cod Baseball League that summer after the draft, and Orioles scout Donovan O’Dowd recommended they dig deeper on him. Gibson signed as an undrafted free agent, making him an adjacent member of an impressive crop of pitchers the Orioles added from the college ranks in 2023.

What do the numbers say?

That Gibson strikes hitters out at an elite rate, for starters. That’s been the case for his entire professional career, and he’s improved as he’s climbed the minor league ladder. He was a beneficiary of the Orioles’ tandem starter program in 2024, using the shorter outings to build his velocity and get more comfortable in his delivery and routine.

It proved effective, to say the least. Between Low-A Delmarva and High-A Aberdeen, Gibson had a 3.72 ERA and a 2.99 FIP, and struck out 11.5 batters per nine with a 1.23 WHIP. He struck out 40.4% of the batters he faced in 38 2/3 innings back at Aberdeen this year before earning his bump to Double-A Chesapeake, where after striking out six in seven innings of shutout ball at Richmond Wednesday, he’s punched out 31 in 26 1/3 innings with a 2.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Between the two levels, he’s struck out 13.6 batters per nine with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 65 innings.

Since the start of 2024, Gibson leads all Orioles pitching prospects with at least 100 innings with 12.6 strikeouts per nine. His swinging strike rate has climbed from 13.6% a year ago to 15.1% this year, and his walk rate has stayed about flat.

What does he throw?

Take it away, Trey.

Those breaking balls are just part of the package for Gibson, whose repertoire is made up of pitches with movement profiles that are individually unique. He has good life to his four-seam fastball, which last year averaged 94.5 mph and after Aug. 1 averaged 95.5 mph as he built up in the tandem starter program.

Gibson attributed that to “the sequencing of my body feeling better each time I went out on the mound,” building on some of the early instructional tenets the Orioles had thrown his way immediately after he signed. They emphasized being more vertical and using his legs more, moving down the mound harder and throwing his entire arsenal harder, which has helped it all play up.

He also has added to that arsenal. He pitched with a hard cutter, a mid-80s slider and low-80s curveball that graded out as potentially plus pitches in 2024, and he has added to that since. Double-A Chesapeake pitching coach Jordie Henry said last year, at the end of the season in Aberdeen, his approach with Gibson was unlike anyone else he’s ever coached.

“I’d never done this before, but it was kind of an exploratory pitch design phase in the offseason where we had like three new pitch options on the table,” Henry said. “It was the gyro slider/‘death ball,’ two-seam and then a new changeup. We tried all of those grips starting in September, and then in the movement camp he went to and throughout the offseason, and really just found some grips we thought would work. When he initially tried all of them, there was something there with all of them.”

They decided to have Gibson rep each out in the winter and decide what would stick in spring training. The death ball — which is a hard, more vertical slider — beat out the changeup and is growing to be a solid part of Gibson’s arsenal. He’s also working to integrate the two-seam in the second half of the season, and he is executing all of them in the right spots, which is helping lead to his strikeout success.

“I think the biggest difference between Trey last year and this year is probably he knows how to use his arsenal a little bit better,” Henry said. “He’s got a full arsenal already. … He’s got a lot of options and had a lot of options last year. It’s learning when to use what against either-side hitter, in certain situations, and then getting the cutter down in the zone. He had a little bit of an issue getting into certain two-strike locations or situational locations when he needed a ground ball, certain things like that. I think he knows when to use what pitch, and he’s locating some of his tertiary pitches a little bit better.”

What does the future hold?

Probably more pitches, knowing both Gibson and the organization he’s pitching in. But, in the near term, Gibson plus future Arms on the Farm candidate Braxton Bragg, Nestor German and Levi Wells in the Chesapeake rotation represent not only the Orioles’ most promising wave of pitchers in a while but also a developmental challenge I’m fascinated to see them tackle.

The Orioles’ Triple-A rotation is typically a mix of prospects and major league depth options, and that limits the ability to move prospects up with enough innings available to continue their development. There’s also not a huge track record of pitchers moving quickly from Double-A to Norfolk. Brandon Young pitched 60 2/3 innings at the level on both sides of Tommy John surgery. After the pandemic, Grayson Rodriguez had 79 2/3 innings at the level in 2021 before starting the next year at Norfolk. Beyond that, it seems like the 90- to 110-inning threshold was enough for the likes of Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott to move up after they joined the organization.

Gibson could push close to that level this year and potentially be a candidate to join the Orioles by the end of 2026, but that’s getting ahead of ourselves. His future, however quickly it happens, is one in which his pitch mix, ability to hold velocity and starter’s frame will give him a chance to stay in the rotation, with a very high floor if he has to pitch out of the bullpen, given the quality of his stuff.