Of course, everything would feel better if the Orioles had an ace.

Part of the reason I felt strongly that they’d end up either bringing back Corbin Burnes or replacing him with a pitcher of similar worth is because the value of Burnes last year was clear as day.

He was the one constant in a rotation that started and finished the year without Kyle Bradish and John Means, ended it without Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells, and missed Dean Kremer for a stretch. The Orioles needed every bit of the quality and reliability he brought.

So as the Orioles prepare to open the season without Rodriguez — a homegrown arm who still has top-end rotation talent — due to elbow soreness, that kind of stable center would certainly be welcome. If only because the perceived lack of it can make an incredibly promising season feel doomed from the start.

There’s no denying it would feel better if there was a true No. 1 starter to deflect those fears. It’s objectively true that losing Rodriguez for any meaningful part of the season is bad for the Orioles. Even feeling the way I do about the value of having an ace last year for the club, I’m not sure the impact of a Rodriguez injury is any larger or smaller due to the lack of one — which seems to be the conversation we’re all having.

On a basic level, the team’s sixth starter would be better if everyone in the rotation moved down a notch in the pecking order to accommodate a true No. 1 at the top.

Realistically, Tomoyuki Sugano was going to be in the Orioles rotation from the moment they signed him, so what we’re ultimately talking about is the difference between Charlie Morton — who is projected for 1.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs’ Steamer forecast — and someone better than him.

There were obviously candidates in the free agent market. The Orioles pursued many of them, and Burnes wasn’t the only one whose list of final options didn’t include Baltimore simply for its location. It doesn’t feel to me like the front office is comfortable further diminishing the minor league talent base in a trade again, given all the deals they made in 2024, so Garrett Crochet is wearing a Red Sox uniform and the Padres’ pending free agents remain in San Diego.

Based on the Orioles’ known pursuits, it feels clear they know the value of the top-end starters they did go after. I kind of agree with everyone who makes fun of the “we tried” aspect of these offseasons. It’s a low bar to clear.

But when the owner of the team comes out and explicitly endorses the general manager’s need for everything to pencil out value-wise for a long-term deal or trade and, perhaps more importantly, the outcomes of not executing them on the internal forecasts for the current club, we can also fairly assume the value of a top starter doesn’t exist in a vacuum.

If it did, they’d feel like they needed one and would have done whatever was possible to get it. Instead, they have accumulated a group of mostly good starters who, on most nights, are going to pitch to a level that lets the offense win the game for them. That doesn’t really change with or without Rodriguez, or with or without an ace.

And that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t feel better to have one — but they don’t.

Ballpark chatter

“If my bat is on plane and I’m catching it deep and still hitting it on a line versus if my bat is coming in steep, I’m not on plane for as long of a time, that’s just stuff that we worked on and creating better misses.”

— Adley Rutschman on his swing change 

The Orioles’ star catcher looks like he’s back to being that kind of player this spring, and it’s notable this is how he did it.

When he struggled a little in Double-A back in 2021, he was kind of in between swings and doing a lot of popping the ball up for a short spell. He decided to stay back a little more to catch the ball deep rather than attack it at the front of the plate and found his best form. Going back to what worked before is always a good choice.

On the farm

Levi Wells

Right-hander Levi Wells on Monday touched 100 mph in minor league camp, which is notable on its own. He’s one of a handful of Aberdeen pitchers I didn’t see last year, but reports were mixed on him

He boasts arguably the best raw stuff in the organization, and if you saw him on his best day the performance would back that up. But it happened so infrequently in a year when he had a 6.71 ERA and 1.64 WHIP that I couldn’t rank him for Baseball America. I was told this winter there is better ahead for him. Perhaps this is the start of that.

Further reading

🏟️ Lefties and the left field wall: You might remember last week when I said I was ready for the wall stories to end. I still am, but this is a good one on an under-discussed aspect of the dimension change for left-handed hitters from Andy.

🟠 Orange on orange! I am probably in the minority on liking the Orioles’ City Connect jerseys, but I don’t think that’s the case with the orange pants. Those will be cool, and everyone knows it.