I probably would have received a text or two if it was Rōki Sasaki. That’s what I realize now.

Such wisdom, however, was not abundant as I finished my daughter’s bath, tagged out of bedtime for an evening of cookie baking and newsletter writing only to see an Orioles Instagram post in a foreign language that required further investigation.

Sasaki is still out there for someone to sign, and that someone could be the Orioles, but their first actual rotation acquisition ended up being 35-year-old Japanese star Tomoyuki Sugano on a one-year, $13 million deal that brings one of the most decorated pitchers in Japan stateside for the end of his career.

Aside from the highest commitment to the bit of not signing a pitcher to a multiyear contract — a move that would, to many fans, signal a yet-to-be-reached pursuit of a championship because the caliber of pitcher who warrants such a contract is higher than those who sign for one year — this deal is a lot of things for the Orioles.

It’s, for starters, a totally respectable value play on a pitcher who does a few things that they covet well. His resume speaks for itself, but this breakdown of Sugano’s arsenal by Marquee Sports Network analyst Lance Brozdowski is more what I’m talking about. He outlines a five-pitch mix that Sugano uses well to keep hitters off balance, with the cutter and splitter able to help him fend off lefties and a good sweeper to fend off righties.

Brozdowski points out there’s some room to refine Sugano’s fastball usage and utilize it at the top of the zone more — a characteristic the Orioles are cognizant of in amateur scouting as it’s a simple fix that yields immediate improvement — but the thing that stands out is obviously Sugano’s elite walk rates and the resulting low WHIPs.

This signing ultimately comes down to Sugano’s ability to adjust to the ball he’ll use in MLB, and whether he’s one of those guys who can move the ball around the strike zone and stay off barrels given his low strikeout rates. There are ways to quantify that, and the Orioles think the chances of him doing so are worth $13 million, so they’ve added him to a rotation mix that includes Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Albert Suárez before the eventual returns of Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells from elbow surgery.

That group still lacks a Corbin Burnes type at the top — and we’ll get to him later — but it feels like there’s a very sturdy floor to the Orioles’ rotation, with Chayce McDermott, Trevor Rogers and Brandon Young all potential first-half reinforcements before Bradish and Wells are healthy.

But the timing of this deal is somewhat notable. Many top free agent pitchers have come off the board, yes, but many remain, from Burnes and Jack Flaherty to Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta. I personally would be surprised if the Orioles don’t ultimately make a big move to address the top of their rotation. But the reality is prices have been high, and of all the things we’ve seen this front office under Mike Elias evolve toward in this new, moneyed existence under new owner David Rubenstein — trading top prospects away in bunches, taking on salary in trades, signing Tyler O’Neill to a multiyear contract — paying market value for a starting pitcher in free agency is a frontier it hasn’t reached yet. I bet the front office is still trying to cross that threshold, albeit on its terms.

Giving $13 million to a pitcher who is an unknown to anyone outside die-hard baseball fans and front office denizens certainly has plenty of risk. But it’s short-term risk, which is different than what a team takes on with a three- or four-year deal for a free agent pitcher.

We’ve come a long way from the Orioles cutting bait with Hanser Alberto over a few million dollars in the arbitration process because it would have been more than he was worth. Now, they’re choosing to deploy their resources in a way that, essentially, pays a premium for a one-year deal rather than putting themselves on the hook for tens of millions of dollars that could be sunk down the line.

After all, this is where the Orioles’ needs are. As impressive as it would be to sign Burnes for a deal worth well over $200 million that stretches beyond the end of this decade, addressing the 2025 Orioles is top of mind. This does that. I imagine that won’t be all the help this rotation gets, either.

Ballpark chatter

“Really, this boils down to ownership. When you have competitiveness in a market, ownership has to respond to compete with these fellow owners for elite talents. It’s something that normally when you’re new to it, it’s not as understood.”

— Scott Boras, Burnes’ agent

I can’t say I expected to be quoting agents, anonymous or not, much when I dreamed up this section. But here we are. Over the course of this century, Scott Boras has reportedly secured many fantastic deals for his clients by dealing directly with owners once he gets as far as he can with baseball executives. Chris Davis is the most notable local example.

It sure feels to me like he’s saying the Orioles’ top offer isn’t going to get Burnes back to Baltimore and asking Rubenstein to drive the market higher. If Rubenstein, Michael Arougheti and company really want Burnes so badly that they’ll bid over the market and over the front office’s head to get him, and they aren’t going to rein in spending in the latter years of that deal if it looks bad, then why not?

Free Agent of the Week

Jack Flaherty

The Athletic reported this week that the Orioles could turn their free agent pursuits to Jack Flaherty, who wouldn’t cost them a draft pick and was far better in 2024 between Detroit and Los Angeles than he was after the 2023 trade deadline in Baltimore. The report mentions that the Orioles understood Flaherty was worn down that summer, which is probably true. Whatever the reason, or reasons, it just didn’t go well.

If it’s up to me, I need to have a really good reason to run that back, because we’re talking about what would be a big bet on erasing the history the player and team have with each other and starting fresh. That’s not often how the world works.

For further reading

📣 Tyler O’Neill speaks: O’Neill said all the right things — and made some interesting points, too — as he was introduced Monday.

📋 Roster broke down: This is probably just my priors showing, as someone who thought the Orioles were talented enough to win in the playoffs despite their poor form leading up to it, but I look at the roster Danielle broke down Monday and kind of just nod. It’s not exciting or different, and that’s not a bad thing. Just a lot of quality.

⚾ Don’t expect a new hitting philosophy: We now have a clear picture of what the Orioles’ lineup will look like with O’Neill and Gary Sánchez signed, and manager Brandon Hyde had his say on what the philosophies driving the group will be, too.