The biggest risk we run in Baltimore, with a front-row seat to greatness, is that somehow we will take Lamar Jackson for granted. Just a few days before his 28th birthday, Jackson showed 24 million (or so) viewers on Netflix just what greatness is.
To summarize his three-touchdown performance on Christmas, you only have to pick two plays. First, an unbelievable fake-out of Will Anderson Jr., holding on to the ball for more than eight seconds with nothing but air between him and the Texans sack artist only to find Isaiah Likely in the end zone. Next, a 48-yard run that saw him reach over 21 mph for a score.
Jackson is a better passer than he’s ever been, and his speed on the ground is still elite. It was a definitive message that Jackson should be considered one of the MVP front-runners, if not the favorite. But, whether it is voter fatigue, various narratives that diminish his achievements or other odd twists of semantics, plenty of people seem unconvinced of Jackson’s credentials.
As Jackson himself would say: Pause.
I feel regretful that I wrote a few weeks ago that it didn’t matter if Jackson wins MVP. Although I stand by the larger theme that the Ravens and Jackson playing their best means more than the award (and, by the way, they are playing their best right now), it would feel criminal as things stand if somehow Jackson is shortchanged for a season that by many measures is his best.
So here’s a Reality Check for the MVP race, a discussion Jackson should be dominating, along with measured responses for hot takes that fail to capture what the Ravens’ QB is doing:
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1. It’s Josh Allen’s time!
OK. How? As great as Allen’s season has been, it is almost devoid of superlatives against his peers.
Jackson is the league’s leader in passing touchdowns (39), passer rating (121.6) and net yards per attempt (8.18). Jackson has more rushing yards than Allen, too. Allen’s best argument statistically is his 11 rushing TDs to Jackson’s three, but by total TDs he still has to score five this weekend to match Jackson’s 42. The Ravens also have the league’s best red-zone offense, thanks in large part to Jackson’s arm.
Is Allen more clutch than Jackson? They have the same number of game-winning drives this season (two). Jackson’s Ravens demolished Allen’s Bills 35-10 when Baltimore’s secondary was still widely considered one of the most porous in the league.
Truly, just go to Pro Football Reference’s stat leaderboards. You will find Allen atop none of them, but Jackson is everywhere. Jackson is also atop Pro Football Focus’ quarterback board as the highest-rated player (93.5). Allen is third behind Joe Burrow. Neither Jackson nor Burrow got the benefit of playing against a division of tin cans like Allen has in the AFC East. The Bills have one more win than the Ravens, but no one else in the division has a winning record, and it includes the Jets and the Patriots, two of the worst teams in the league.
I’ll go a step further: Allen has never had a season as good as Jackson is having.
Jackson already has more passing touchdowns than Allen has ever had in any single season. Jackson has a higher touchdown rate, a higher passer rating, a higher QBR and a lower interception rate than any season Allen has ever had. Jackson’s passer rating would be the second highest in NFL history, and his 0.33 expected points per drop-back would be fourth since at least 2010.
While some analysts have decided it’s a fallacy that Jackson must win MVP because he was MVP last season and got even better, it’s not just relative to his own seasons. Right now, Jackson’s season is that much better than his peers, too — which is why he leads so many categories that Allen simply does not.
Jackson’s best competition is not Allen. His season should be statistically compared to all-time greats.
2. Lamar Jackson can’t be MVP because he has Derrick Henry!
I’ll give Josh Allen this: Derrick Henry is a better teammate than anyone on the Bills roster. But for every analyst shouting that Henry is a mark against Jackson, or even that having a teammate of Henry’s caliber is disqualifying, here’s a question:
Is it possible that Henry has benefited just as much as Jackson, if not more, from the partnership?
In Henry’s best season when he ran for 2,027 yards, 954 of those yards were before contact. This season, he’s run for 1,023 of his 1,783 yards before contact — an average of 3.4 YBC per run, with 73 fewer attempts than his career year. That’s a reflection of great blocking by a line that has improved this season and great play-calling by Todd Monken, who has in many ways exceeded last season’s achievements. But it’s also about sharing a backfield with Jackson.
On the Titans last season, Henry was the only weapon for defenses to target. He saw eight-man boxes at a 35.3% rate and averaged 3.3 yards per carry, per TruMedia. On the Ravens, Henry is still seeing eight-man boxes at a 31.5% clip but averaging 6.2 yards per carry — because defenses have to respect the dual threat of Jackson, the “pick your poison” component of the offense. Jackson is incredibly deceptive at handoffs, effectively running run-pass options that utilize Henry’s threat and his own legs well. Even when the Ravens keep the ball on the ground, defenses can’t be sure who is running it.
It’s also worth pointing out a stat that means a lot more than it actually says. Jackson’s time to throw is 3.15 seconds, the league’s longest. If you watch Jackson’s tape, it represents just how much time he gives his receivers to develop their routes. Jackson’s jukes in front of Anderson against the Texans weren’t even his best time-buying sequence this season — that has to go to when he fumbled a snap, scrambled to his right and stiff-armed Sam Hubbard before throwing a touchdown pass to Likely.
If you want to ding Jackson for his cast, remember that the most significant change to his receiving corps this offseason was losing Odell Beckham Jr. His receivers have been healthy and developed, but that has a lot to do with Jackson, who is the league’s best at buying time for teammates to get open.
3. Lamar doesn’t get it done when it matters!
If the only standard for greatness was who is holding the trophy at the end of the year, then I guess Patrick Mahomes would get MVP before kickoff of Week 1 every season — why bother even playing? In fact, there is not an active quarterback under 36 years old who has won a Super Bowl other than Mahomes, which should be a measure of how hard it is to reach the tier everyone thinks of when it comes to elite quarterback play.
We know the criticisms of Jackson, primarily that he has a 2-4 playoff record. That’s not what the MVP award is about. You could make a better case for Mahomes’ MVP chances than you could for Allen on the clutch-performer argument, given that Mahomes has had five comeback wins for a 15-1 season when his team has won by a single score most weeks. To Allen’s credit, the Bills beat the Chiefs and the Lions, games in which Allen was fantastic. But he’s had his share of weak games, too: against the Patriots, the Colts, the Texans and, yes, Baltimore.
I myself have criticized Jackson this season, from an abysmal home loss to the Raiders, to a miserable performance on the road in Pittsburgh. But, in a year when his defense has fallen from elite status, Jackson has raised his game and put together incredible efforts that solidified Baltimore as an offense-first franchise.
Without Jackson’s superhuman performances against Cincinnati, the Ravens probably would have lost to the Bengals twice. He demolished the Buccaneers, the Texans and the Chargers on the road. The Bills and Broncos couldn’t touch him at home. He finally dislodged the Steelers curse last week, acquitting himself mightily with three passing touchdowns and putting the Ravens in position to win the AFC North for a second straight year.
I still want to see Jackson succeed on bigger stages. I want to see a playoff win against Kansas City and, let’s face it, so does he. But, with the Ravens’ season on the brink, Jackson has been a huge force in pulling them back into the lead pack. With three victories in 11 days, Jackson has thrown for 10 touchdowns and a 73% completion rate (against two top-eight DVOA defenses on teams that are going to the playoffs). He has 839 yards of total offense in that span and just topped Michael Vick’s QB rushing record.
Jackson cannot change playoffs past. He can’t change his record against the Chiefs and Mahomes. He can only face what is in front of him, trying to keep Baltimore’s season going. And it’s hard to argue that anyone, especially in the last few weeks, has done that better.
The stakes were high. By winning and playing out of his mind, Jackson is changing the notion of how far the Ravens can go this season. If that doesn’t solidify an MVP case, I don’t know what does.
Baltimore Banner Jonas Shaffer contributed to this story.
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