A month ago, the Ravens left Cincinnati with a 41-38 overtime win and a sigh of relief. It was a game-of-the-year instant classic: 79 total points, 962 yards, two epic quarterback performances.
It was also a game the Ravens’ secondary would just as soon forget.
“I feel like the offense kind of willed us to that win,” Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton said Tuesday. “We’re not proud of that game, and it’s something that we learned from, and we want to come back and improve on, and we have the opportunity to do that and right our wrong.”
Added cornerback Marlon Humphrey on Monday: “We felt like we should have lost. ... We won the game, but we did not play well, especially the secondary.”
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow went 30-for-39 for 392 yards, five touchdowns and one crucial late interception. Usually, that would be enough; of the eight quarterback performances in NFL history with at least 390 passing yards, five passing touchdowns and 75% accuracy, and one or no interceptions, according to Pro Football Reference, only one ended with a loss — Burrow’s.
His misfortune was that Lamar Jackson was even better. The Ravens’ star quarterback went 26-for-42 for 348 yards and four touchdowns and rushed 12 times for 55 yards as he won his fifth game in six head-to-head starts against Burrow.
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As the Bengals (4-5) come to Baltimore for “Thursday Night Football,” all eyes will again be on the AFC North’s two biggest names. Jackson has the Ravens (6-3) on a historic offensive pace and in line to contend for a division crown. Burrow has Cincinnati keeping its hopes up for a late-season surge and a spot in the playoffs. Here’s what to watch in the teams’ Week 10 matchup.
1. The Ravens are used to injury uncertainty over Tee Higgins; the wide receiver has played significant snaps in just six of their divisional meetings since 2020. But Higgins’ ailing hamstring, which has him doubtful for Thursday’s game, could be a pivotal factor.
In those six games against the Ravens, Higgins has a combined 41 catches for 497 yards and six touchdowns, including an 83-yard, two-score performance in Week 5. Since star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s arrival in 2021, Higgins’ mere presence alongside him has been the difference between an all-powerful Burrow and a rather ordinary one.
With Higgins and Chase on the field, the Bengals have averaged 6.8 yards per play against the Ravens, according to TruMedia, which would rank second in the NFL this year. With just Chase on the field? Just 4.9 yards per play, which would rank 26th. Burrow’s aerial attack has soared with the dynamic duo and flagged without it.
If Higgins is inactive, Chase should be easier to handcuff. While the three-time Pro Bowl selection lines up everywhere for Cincinnati — wide left, wide right, in the slot — the Ravens could shade their coverage his way on obvious passing downs, limiting Burrow’s throwing windows and forcing him to look for secondary options.
“They have some other guys, too,” coach John Harbaugh said Tuesday, pointing to wide receivers Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton, a third-round pick who was held out of Sunday’s game after reportedly missing a team walk-through. “He’ll be ready. He’ll be out there. He’s fast, but Tee Higgins is one of the top receivers in football.”
2. Running back Derrick Henry finished the Ravens’ overtime win in Cincinnati with 15 carries for 92 yards (6.1 per carry) and a touchdown. But, over the game’s first four quarters, the Bengals had the league’s leading rusher bottled up.
Henry entered overtime with 11 carries for just 30 yards, with only two runs of at least 5 yards. The Ravens struggled to pave running lanes for Henry, who averaged just 0.18 yards before contact per rush in regulation, his worst rate in any game this season. (That changed in overtime, of course, when Henry helped put the game away with a 51-yard run; he wasn’t touched until he was 36 yards downfield.)
Cincinnati committed to stopping the run early, even if it meant ceding opportunities to Jackson in the passing game. Of Henry’s 13 non-goal-line carries, 11 came against a single-high defense, with a safety lurking near the box as an extra defender in the Bengals’ run fit.
“They’re a good defensive unit,” center Tyler Linderbaum said Tuesday. “Sometimes that’s going to happen running the ball. You’re trying to grind the ball all game and then hopefully break a big one in the fourth quarter. ... Obviously, when you have a back like Derrick, big plays can happen, just like that.”
Although Henry was dropped for a safety after a blown block in the second quarter, he was effective in short-yardage situations, rushing for four first downs or touchdowns. And, if standout defensive lineman B.J. Hill is sidelined by a rib injury, the Bengals could struggle to replicate their Week 5 success. Without Hill on the field, Cincinnati’s run defense has posted a success rate of 47.9%, which would be the lowest of any team in the past decade.
3. All three Ravens losses this season have been filled with penalties: seven against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1, 11 against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 and seven against the Cleveland Browns in Week 8. Thursday night’s game could be full of flags, too.
Referee Clete Blakeman, who hasn’t officiated a Ravens or Bengals game this season, heads a crew that leads the NFL with 16.1 flags per game and 142.5 penalty yards per game, according to the NFL Penalties database. Blakeman presided over two Ravens games in Baltimore last year, calling one penalty on them in their Week 3 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and calling seven in their Week 17 blowout of the Miami Dolphins.
Overall, the Ravens have lost 602 yards on 69 penalties this season, while opponents have lost just 432, giving them an NFL-worst 170-yard deficit. The Bengals, meanwhile, have been flagged an NFL-low 41 times for 335 yards, the second fewest in the league.
4. After Thursday’s game, the Bengals will end the season with road games against the Los Angeles Chargers (5-3), Dallas Cowboys (3-5), Tennessee Titans (2-6) and Steelers (6-2) and home games against Pittsburgh, the Browns (2-7) and Denver Broncos (5-4). According to FTN, it’s the NFL’s 12th-easiest remaining schedule, a slate accommodating to a late-season run.
A Ravens win Thursday, then, would be doubly significant. According to The New York Times’ playoff simulator, a regular-season sweep of Cincinnati would drop the Bengals’ chances of making the playoffs from about 42% to about 33%.
The Ravens, meanwhile, already heavy favorites (95%) to make the playoffs, would become a virtual lock (99%) with a 7-3 start. Their odds of hosting a wild-card-round game as the AFC North champion would rise from about 65% to 73% with a win — and fall to 46% with a loss. The division-leading Steelers have about a 26% chance of winning the division.
5. Recent history suggests a Bengals upset is unlikely.
Under Harbaugh, the Ravens are 21-3 (.875) at home in prime-time games. On Thursday night, they’re 8-0 under Harbaugh, including a 34-20 win over the Bengals last November.
Since 2019, AFC North teams in divisional prime-time games are 2-11 on the road. They’ve also lost seven straight Thursday night games since October 2015.
“It definitely feels different on a short week for any opponent,” Harbaugh said Tuesday. “I like the fact that you play a team that you have a little more familiarity with, but that’s a two-edged sword, too, because they have a lot of familiarity with us. Every game is different. Every game is unique. You just try to take it as it comes, attack the circumstances as they present themselves, and that’s what we’ll try to do and do our best.”
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