Welcome to Ravens Reality Check, where we line up the national media’s Monday morning hot takes and spray them down with the garden hose to cool them off.
I opted for a preemptive strike on Sunday afternoon by targeting takes that had yet to emerge, which might say more about my own fraying brain cells than anything else. My take was that Lamar Jackson hasn’t been taken seriously enough as MVP frontrunner given the quarterbacks he’s been beating head-to-head (plenty of folks were lining up last week to preemptively crown Jayden Daniels).
There are a number of pundits out there who agree, namely the ex-player panel of FS1′s “The Facility,” who commented that Jackson looks better and more in control than last season, when he won the award for a second time. Said LeSean McCoy: “I never thought I’d see a better Lamar Jackson because he’s been so good. But this Lamar Jackson? He looks like the best player in football.”
The Ringer’s NFL podcast was similarly high on Jackson. Said Sheil Kapadia: “I think this is the best Lamar Jackson has ever played, which is a crazy thing to say about a guy who’s won two MVPs. I think he’s easily the MVP through six weeks.”
Where it’s interesting is where the opinions diverge on which Raven is the leading MVP candidate:
1. Derrick Henry is the MVP frontrunner!
Could the NFL have its first MVP running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012? “Good Morning Football” panelist Kyle Brandt thinks so. Comparing Henry’s 132-yard, two-touchdown performance to a scene-stealing cameo in the hyped duel between Jackson and Daniels, Brandt lauded Henry’s dominance atop the league’s rushers this year: “I just didn’t think it was gonna work out like this. It just has been so good and so badass.”
If you consider that Henry leads the league in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and has powered an attack that has outrushed opponents by at least 100 yards in six straight games, it’s compelling stuff. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky went even further on a breakdown of how Washington’s defense stacked boxes against the Ravens and Henry, concluding: “Derrick Henry won the football game before the ball ever got snapped for the Baltimore Ravens.”
That conclusion … seems a bit strong.
Henry’s presence is definitely a key reason why the Commanders, who prefer to play lighter sets with more defensive backs, stacked the box. Next Gen Stats shows he played against an eight-man box more than 62% of the time.
On the other hand, while Henry’s snap count has increased over the four-game winning streak, he still played just 63% of the offensive snaps in Sunday’s win. He was a terrific finisher on red zone possessions and a great closer, but it’s hard for me to say he was the most outstanding Raven on the field when Jackson threw for more than 300 yards. Let’s also give credit to Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews, who all reached season highs in receiving yards.
The relationship between Jackson and Henry is mutually beneficial, because Jackson saw more single-high safety coverages and man coverages due to Henry’s presence. To me, though, he’s still the Ravens’ best player, marrying the run and the pass and making them equally terrifying. I’m closer to the thinking of ESPN’s Mike Greenberg, whose take (after touting Henry as his MVP last week) was: “Derrick Henry is the reason why the Ravens will win the Super Bowl.”
2. The Ravens’ offense is the best in the NFL!
It’s hard to call this a “take” exactly, because by the numbers, the Ravens are, in fact, the best offense in the league by a few key metrics. They lead the league in yards, and they’ve scored just one fewer point (177 total) this season than the Commanders and Buccaneers, the two highest-scoring units in the NFL. They have the best yards per play average (6.9), and they rank first in passing and rushing DVOA.
The way a lot of sports shows discuss this topic, however, is largely qualitative. “This is a scary, scary, SCARY Baltimore Ravens team right now,” said FS1′s James Jones.
ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, however, touted the Detroit Lions over Baltimore after their 47-9 smashing of the Dallas Cowboys (admittedly a much bigger blowout than the Ravens’ weirdly tight 28-25 victory last month). Giving them the edge for having two good running backs, two strong wideouts and Sam LaPorta at tight end, Smith felt the Lions are “more dangerous.”
“Dan Campbell has those brothers playing like Rough Riders,” he said. “I’d have to give the edge to the Detroit Lions right now.”
3. The Ravens still have to prove it … against the Chiefs!
Hard to argue this one, too. I’m a believer in results over hypotheticals. I don’t like to lead discussions about “what if this Ravens team had played in Week 1?” because Baltimore had its chance to knock off Kansas City and couldn’t. As I wrote in the Sunday column, we know that Patrick Mahomes has Jackson’s number in the head-to-head matchups, including last year’s AFC championship.
That being said, it’s natural to wonder what a game between the Chiefs and the Ravens could look like in the postseason. The Chiefs got the benefit of a bye week to try to get a little healthier and keep their 5-0 start going, but they are without Rashee Rice for the year and Isiah Pacheco for a to-be-determined stretch. They’ve been eking out close wins and look relatively vulnerable for, you know, the Chiefs.
Orlovsky seems to dislike hypotheticals as much as I do, ranking the Chiefs his No. 1 team while creating a power ranking for “First Take”: “Kansas City is the best team in football, still. No one’s beaten them.” That gives them some credit, too, for how well they operate in the postseason.
FS1′s McCoy looked ready for a rematch, and implied that the Ravens’ momentum might pitch them over the top this time: “If Lamar keeps playing like this? Because they lost to the Chiefs by a toenail?”
Then again, Smith brought the cold water on “First Take,” raising a thought that probably haunts every Baltimore fan.
“There’s a lot of people who believe Baltimore could take Kansas City and should be able to,” he said. “My thing is this: If you don’t take Kansas City now, if you’re Baltimore, when will you?”
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