As the Ravens return to Owings Mills this week for the final month of the regular season, an AFC North title has never seemed less likely.

The Steelers (10-3) are two games ahead in the division standings and have already beaten their rivals in Pittsburgh. Not even a 4-0 finish may be enough for the Ravens (8-5) to secure their second straight crown. According to The New York Times’ playoff simulator, their chances of winning the AFC North entering Week 15 are just about 30%.

So where do the Ravens stand as the postseason approaches? We asked reporters Jonas Shaffer and Giana Han, columnist Kyle Goon and “Banner Ravens Podcast” co-host Paul Mancano to break down the team’s next four weeks.

What’s the Ravens’ biggest concern over their final four games?

Shaffer: The pass protection, which has been shaky in their past two losses. In Week 15, the Ravens will avoid star Giants defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence (nine sacks) and outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari (six), but outside linebacker Brian Burns (seven) can still be a force. In Week 16, the Ravens get the Steelers, who should have Alex Highsmith (four sacks in seven games) back to team up with fellow outside linebackers T.J. Watt (9.5) and Nick Herbig (4.5) and defensive lineman Cameron Heyward (eight).

In Week 17, the Ravens will face the Houston Texans’ fearsome defensive end duo of Danielle Hunter (10.5 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (9.5), who ranked first and sixth, respectively, in ESPN’s pass rush win rate among edge rushers entering Week 14. And in Week 18 the Ravens will end the regular season against defensive end Myles Garrett (11 sacks) and the Cleveland Browns, who’ve ranked near the top of the NFL in pressure rate even after trading Za’Darius Smith.

Han: Can kicker Justin Tucker stabilize this season? The offense hasn’t been scoring like it did to start the season, and while I think there’s a chance the Ravens bounce back after time to rest and study, it sure would help to have the Tucker of old. It’s hard not to look at how his struggles correlate with the team’s losing margins. In addition to leaving points on the field, his misses have been momentum shifters. Even from the press box, I can feel how M&T Bank Stadium deflates after a miss. Imagine being his teammate. The Ravens might have some tight games down the stretch, and Lamar Jackson might be able to do it all … but he can’t literally do it all and make those kicks for Tucker.

Goon: Lamar Jackson and his wide receivers aren’t really jelling lately. If you look back at their past two games, especially, tight end Mark Andrews has remained a go-to guy. Wide receiver Zay Flowers booms in one half, then busts in another. Rashod Bateman is quiet most weeks and just got hurt. Nelson Agholor has had more than one catch in just two games this season. Diontae Johnson … well, that situation doesn’t look good. Jackson hasn’t helped matters himself, making early off-target throws in his past three games before settling down. The passing attack of the past three weeks isn’t going to cut it if Baltimore wants to keep this offense rolling into the postseason.

Mancano: The offense’s disappearing act scares me more than anything. When Lamar Jackson and his weapons are in sync, as they were against the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals (twice), they’re unstoppable. But their performances against the Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles revealed the floor to be lower than initially thought. Beating the New York Giants and Browns (and even the Texans) won’t impress many, but this offense can change some narratives by thumping Pittsburgh in two weeks.

Which is more likely: the Ravens starting a new offensive lineman or a new kicker?

Shaffer: A kicker. The Ravens’ offensive line is competent enough, their play-calling is creative enough and quarterback Lamar Jackson is mobile enough that it’s hard to imagine left guard Patrick Mekari or right guard Daniel Faalele playing himself out of the starting lineup imminently. It’s clear John Harbaugh values this group’s continuity and has seen enough progress to forge ahead.

Justin Tucker, however, doesn’t have the same kind of cover. The Ravens have made clear that the infrastructure around him is stable. If Tucker keeps missing kicks in a division race this tight, the Ravens will have no choice but to find a replacement, even if it’s for only a week.

Han: The Ravens may say they’re open to “turning over every stone” on the kicking market, but they don’t sound that open to the idea of replacing Justin Tucker. They’ve also been quick to praise their offensive linemen — but I think a change is more likely to be made up front, especially with all the unit’s penalties. Left guard Patrick Mekari was never intended to be an every-down starter, and he’s the No. 1 offender when it comes to penalties. The only problem is, like the Tucker situation, are the alternatives truly better? It’s at least easier to test things along the line in practice than it is to try out a new kicker and declare him better than Tucker.

Goon: I’m not so sure Justin Tucker deserves the stranglehold on his spot that he seems to have, but everything about the Ravens’ messaging says he’s their guy for the rest of the season, for better or for worse. That makes the offensive line seemingly more ripe for changes. Patrick Mekari has been the Ravens’ best guard, but it’s worth wondering how long he can hold up physically in a season in which he’s already well surpassed his career high for offensive snaps. Right guard Daniel Faalele’s Pro Football Focus grade has been mediocre, and when the line struggles, he’s often the weakest link. If Andrew Vorhees or Ben Cleveland ever breaks through this year, it feels like it might have to be in the next week or two.

Mancano: Offensive lineman. Andrew Vorhees was making strides before his ankle injury, and while Patrick Mekari has held up well at guard, the team needs to start thinking ahead. Vorhees, 25, has the potential to start in 2025, while Mekari is set to enter free agency after this season and is probably best utilized as a super-utility lineman.

Which underperforming player or unit is most likely to bounce back?

Shaffer: Brandon Stephens. Tre’Davious White has cut into his playing time at outside cornerback in recent weeks but, over the past two games, Stephens allowed just three completions for 34 yards on five targets, according to PFF. Some of the deep-ball misfortune that afflicted him early in the season has started to even out. Ravens pass game coordinator Chris Hewitt on Tuesday called Stephens “sticky” and said “he’s always right there at the catch point, and it’s a quarterback throwing a perfect ball” to beat him deep. There aren’t a lot of quarterbacks remaining on the Ravens’ schedule who can do that regularly.

Han: I would like to think inside linebacker Roquan Smith can finish strong. He hasn’t been bad — he was third in the NFL in tackles entering Week 14 — but he hasn’t been the amazing Pro Bowl player he was last year. Hopefully, as coordinator Zach Orr steadies this defense, he can unlock Smith — or Smith can find something within himself to take his game to another level. His chances of doing so are high. Smith has consistently been a good player over his career, and his return to “force multiplier” status is critical to this team’s success.

Goon: The boom-or-bust performances of Nnamdi Madubuike have surprised me. It doesn’t feel like anything is wrong with him, but the fluctuating health of his fellow defensive linemen has allowed opponents to double-team him. We saw he still has breakout potential when he crunched Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow for three sacks in Week 10. But Madubuike can be better, and I suspect that, as Travis Jones returns to full strength, the Ravens could see the dominant version of him that showed up last season.

Mancano: Roquan Smith. After a disastrous first two months, the inside linebacker’s stock has been ticking up ever so slightly with each passing game. Smith has been asked to cover more ground than he ever has while holding the hand of first-year starter Trenton Simpson. The two-time All-Pro may not find himself on any honors lists after the season, but he can at least inspire more confidence in this linebacking tandem before the playoffs start.

Do the Ravens need to go 4-0 for Lamar Jackson to be named MVP?

Shaffer: Probably. If his main competition is indeed Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, Jackson’s Most Valuable Player case will need to be bulletproof. He was an underdog to win his third MVP award entering this past week, according to Las Vegas, and the toughest defense the Bills will get over the next four weeks is a depleted Lions unit. The Eagles get the Steelers in Week 15 and a bunch of pushovers.

The Eagles could end the regular season on a 13-game streak, and Buffalo could enter the postseason with 11 wins in its final 12 games. If the Ravens can’t win their division with Jackson, it might not matter what stats he’s racked up.

Han: Most likely. Jackson’s always had to work hard for every ounce of respect because he plays the game so differently. And losses tend to color how a performance is perceived. He’s up against steep competition from players on teams that have better records. At least, with games against the Steelers and Browns remaining, Jackson has two good defenses he could have statement performances against. But beating the Giants and Texans won’t be nearly as impressive as Josh Allen’s victory over the Kansas City Chiefs was. It’s also hard to win MVP if you don’t win your division, and the Steelers are making a real push for the AFC North.

Goon: The narrative argument for Josh Allen (and perhaps the voter fatigue for Jackson) would indicate that, yes, Jackson has to nail all four of these performances to win MVP. But, for once, I take up Jackson’s general indifference to the award, because it feels irrelevant compared with the team’s need to win. Disappointingly, it feels as if Jackson hasn’t played up to his MVP level in the past three weeks. His QB ratings against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia were his lowest since the Week 2 loss against the Las Vegas Raiders, and his gaudy numbers against the Los Angeles Chargers were somewhat a function of extraordinary catches by his receivers. It would be nice to see Jackson reach the heights he once hit, especially in October. If that nets him a third MVP award, that’s nice, but it’s definitely a secondary concern.

Mancano: No, but the Ravens can’t lose more than one game down the stretch. Recency bias plays a huge factor in how these honors are decided. Last season, Jackson made his strongest push for the award by stringing together impressive wins against the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins in weeks 15 to 17. Jackson needs to leave voters with a strong final impression before they reach for their ballots.

Call your shot: Do the Ravens win the AFC North? And what will their playoff matchup be?

Shaffer: The Ravens could (finally) beat the Steelers and go 4-0 over these next four weeks and still lose out on a division title. That’s the hole they’ve dug for themselves. According to the Times’ playoff simulator, winning out gives the Ravens only about a 62% chance of claiming the AFC North crown. The Ravens would need Pittsburgh to drop two more games — a road trip against the Eagles and home matchup with the Chiefs are most likely — to secure a top-four seed.

That’s a lot to ask for from a Ravens team this inconsistent. It’s safe to assume a playoff rematch in Pittsburgh in the wild-card-round awaits.

Han: There is a chance. The Steelers are up two games, but they have the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs all in a row. That trio also makes up their three-games-in-11-days challenge; the Ravens, meanwhile, get the Giants, Pittsburgh and Texans. The Steelers are the toughest matchup for the Ravens, but the Ravens might be the Steelers’ easiest matchup in that stretch. I feel like the Ravens will drop at least one of their final games because this is the team that already lost to the Browns and the Raiders. In that case, I think the Steelers win the division — and then play the Ravens a third time in the playoffs.

Goon: The Ravens will not win the division. It’s not a lost cause, but the door is nearly closed. Even though the Steelers haven’t looked dominant, they rarely defeat themselves — a habit Baltimore has yet to shake. I would bet on the Ravens winning three of their final four games and getting a wild-card berth. Depending on the Chargers — who have a flimsy quality, even though they have a soft schedule — the Ravens can shoot for a road game against Houston over a rematch in Pittsburgh in the wild-card round. We’ll see what happens in their Week 16 matchup, but they don’t appear to be over their Steelers demons yet.

Mancano: Until the Ravens prove they can beat the Steelers, I can’t pick them to win the division. Whether it’s mental or not, Pittsburgh always manages to get the worst out of Baltimore, and given the way things are trending, I’m predicting yet another nerve-racking battle between these two teams come the postseason. Stock up on Tums.