HOUSTON — The Ravens’ Week 18 objective is clear: Win and stay home.
Thanks to their own dominant victory over the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs’ win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wednesday, Baltimore can win the division and earn a home playoff game by beating the Cleveland Browns in their regular-season finale. (Week 18 game dates and times are expected to be announced Sunday night.)
With a victory at home against the Browns, the Ravens (11-5) would repeat as AFC North champions and likely earn the conference’s No. 3 playoff seed.
A loss to Cleveland would leave the Ravens in need of help in the form of a win by the Cincinnati Bengals over the Steelers. While the Ravens and Steelers would both finish with an 11-6 record if Pittsburgh won next week, the Steelers would own the tiebreaker by having a 4-2 record in AFC North play compared to the Ravens’ 3-3 record.
If the Ravens lose to the Browns and the Bengals lose to the Steelers, the Ravens would be locked into the AFC’s No. 5 seed. Their top wild-card competition would be the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos, both of whom enter Week 17 with 9-6 records. Even if the Chargers and Broncos finished 11-6, the Ravens would own the head-to-head tiebreaker against both.
As the No. 3 seed, the Ravens would likely earn a rematch against the Chargers, whom they beat in Los Angeles in Week 12, 30-23. After the Kansas City Chiefs’ win Wednesday over the Steelers and the Ravens’ win over the Houston Texans, the Chargers have about 61% odds of earning the AFC’s No. 6 seed, according to The New York Times’ playoff simulator. The Steelers have about 22% odds, and the Broncos about 13% odds.
As the No. 5 seed, the Ravens would likely earn a rematch against the Texans. After Wednesday’s loss, Houston — which has already clinched the AFC South — has a 99% chance of earning the No. 4 seed, according to the Times.
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