Lamar Jackson has more losses than wins over his playoff career, a history the quarterback is better off not remembering. The only defeat Jackson said he still thinks about is the last one: the Ravens’ AFC championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs nearly a year ago. The details he offered Tuesday were nonspecific.
“We lost,” he said. “That’s it.”
As the third-seeded Ravens prepare for Saturday’s AFC wild-card-round game against the sixth-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers, their star quarterback is just trying to move on. Jackson’s career 2-4 postseason record matters but only so much. His memories matter even less. Jackson can’t change the past any more than he can predict the future.
All Jackson can do this week is continue to build on an NFL Most Valuable Player-worthy regular season. Not having Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers available would be a challenge. A staunch Steelers defense won’t make things easy, either. But, if the NFL’s best offense has left any clues this season, it’s that this Ravens attack and this version of Jackson are better positioned than they’ve ever been to avoid playoff potholes. Here’s why.
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They start fast
In the 148 playoff games played since 2018, teams have scored an average of 12.3 points per first half. In the Ravens’ six playoff starts with Jackson, they’ve averaged just six:
- 2018 wild-card round vs. Los Angeles Chargers: No points at halftime
- 2019 divisional round vs. Tennessee Titans: Six points
- 2020 wild-card round vs. Titans: 10 points
- 2020 divisional round vs. Buffalo Bills: Three points
- 2023 divisional round vs. Houston Texans: 10 points
- 2023 AFC championship game vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Seven points
This postseason, though, the Ravens seem better equipped to start fast. They finished third in the regular season in first-half scoring (14.8 points) and ranked first in yards per play (6.9) and fourth in expected points added per play (0.10), according to TruMedia.
Although the Ravens had an uneven start at Pittsburgh in Week 11, where they trailed 9-7 at halftime, they scored 17 first-half points in their Week 16 rematch. And, overall, no one has opened games hotter against the 14-team playoff field than the Ravens.
They averaged 15.6 first-half points during the regular season against other playoff teams, well ahead of the second-place Minnesota Vikings (14.2). They averaged 7.4 yards per play, well ahead of the second-place Denver Broncos (5.9). And they averaged 0.15 EPA per play, well ahead of the second-place Los Angeles Rams (0.08).
They can storm back
The Ravens’ slow starts have put them in playoff holes — some big, some small. Most, though, have proved insurmountable for Jackson and previous offenses:
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- 2018 wild-card round vs. Chargers: Trailed by as much as 23-3 in the fourth quarter before losing 23-17
- 2019 divisional round vs. Titans: Trailed by as much as 28-6 in the fourth quarter before losing 28-12
- 2020 wild-card round vs. Titans: Trailed by as much as 10-0 in the second quarter before winning 20-13
- 2020 divisional round vs. Bills: Trailed by as much as 17-3 in the fourth quarter before losing by the same margin (Jackson left the game at the end of the third quarter with a concussion)
- 2023 divisional round vs. Texans: Never trailed
- 2023 AFC championship game vs. Chiefs: Trailed by as much as 17-7 in the fourth quarter before losing 17-10
This season, the Ravens haven’t often faced deficits; they’ve trailed by at least a touchdown in just eight games. Only the Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles and Chargers have faced at least a six-point deficit for less time than the Ravens (1 hour, 56 minutes, 2 seconds of game clock).
But few regular-season offenses hit back harder than the Ravens’. When down by at least a touchdown, they averaged 7.6 yards per play, 3.2 points per drive and 0.31 EPA per play, all league-best marks. When trailing in the second half by any margin, they averaged 6.7 yards per play (fourth), 2.8 points per drive (eighth) and 0.22 EPA per play (sixth).
Not every comeback was completed, of course. If the Ravens’ early-season losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns were primarily casualties of a collapsing defense, their late-season losses to the Steelers and Eagles were due in large part to an anemic offense that scored just two total touchdowns.
Still, Jackson proved his resilience throughout the season. The Ravens twice came back in the second half to beat the Bengals, relying heavily on Jackson’s arm. They overcame early double-digit deficits against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chargers to win handily. And the Ravens were inches away from having a shot to stun the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Overall, Jackson averaged 0.22 EPA per drop-back when trailing — a modest step back from his success in 2023 (0.35), when the Ravens almost never trailed during the regular season, but still one of the NFL’s best marks. He completed 60.3% of those passes for 14 touchdowns, one interception and 7.7 yards per attempt, good for a 107.0 passer rating.
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Jackson avoids trouble
Jackson has rarely looked like the best version of himself in the playoffs. Turnovers have had a lot to do with that.
Jackson has committed nine turnovers (six interceptions and three fumbles lost) in six playoff starts, tied for the second most of any player since 2018, according to TruMedia. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes also has nine turnovers — but in 18 games. Former New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady had an NFL-high 10 turnovers in that span — in 11 games.
Jackson has had some bad turnover luck, but most of his trouble has been self-inflicted. According to Pro Football Focus, Jackson’s turnover-worthy-play rate on drop-backs has jumped in each of the past three postseasons: from 1.9% during the 2019 regular season to 4.1%; from 3.6% in 2020 to 4.8%; and from 2.5% last season to 5.3%. (For context, only two regular starters this season, the Atlanta Falcons’ Kirk Cousins and Tennessee Titans’ Will Levis, finished with a turnover-worthy-play rate above 4% in 2024.)
This regular season, Jackson kept the ball out of harm’s way at an elite clip. He led the NFL’s starting quarterbacks in turnover-worthy-play rate (1.4%) and threw an interception on just 0.8% of his attempts, the NFL’s second-best rate, behind only the Chargers’ Justin Herbert (0.6%). And, after losing four fumbles over the season’s first seven weeks, he lost just one over the next 11.
“I think Lamar has just been intentional about playing as well as he can across the board, and that’s a big part of it,” coach John Harbaugh said this season. “There are so many things that go into playing the quarterback position. ... Across the board, I think he just tries to be the best he can, do the best he can [in] every aspect of it.”
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