In October 2023, Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin saw into the future. Or maybe he was just looking back into the past.

Days before a comeback win over the Ravens in Pittsburgh, according to cornerback Patrick Peterson, Tomlin had told his team that, “when it’s a dying moment, they will try to burn the house down.” Late in the game, with the Steelers trailing 10-8, the Ravens came after quarterback Kenny Pickett with a heavy blitz. Pittsburgh was prepared. Pickett hit wide receiver George Pickens down the right sideline for a go-ahead 41-yard touchdown with 1:17 remaining.

Pittsburgh would hold on for a 17-10 victory, its second straight win in a streak that’s now reached four. The Steelers have won eight of the past nine meetings overall, with an average margin of victory of just four points. Since 2020, when Pittsburgh’s new chapter of dominance in the rivalry started, the Ravens have outscored the Steelers 97-80 over the first three quarters of their games. But, in the fourth quarter and overtime, they’ve become a fire hazard, allowing 85 Pittsburgh points and putting up just 38.

“It’s not like, ‘Oh, we were just unlucky,’” Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey said Tuesday. “You got to play disciplined football. I think Tomlin wants to just keep the game close, keep the game close and then win it at the end, and, honestly, that strategy works pretty well when they play us.”

Saturday’s game at M&T Bank Stadium is one of the rivalry’s biggest in recent memory. With another Ravens loss, the Steelers (10-4) would claim the AFC North title and a top-four seed in the playoffs. A win, meanwhile, would clinch a playoff berth for the Ravens (9-5) and lift their chances of a second straight division title to about 53%, according to The New York Times’ playoff simulator. It would also give quarterback Lamar Jackson just his second victory in six career starts against Pittsburgh.

As the Ravens prepare to play their second of three games in an 11-day span, here’s what to watch in their Week 16 matchup.

1. Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken got hands-on at Wednesday’s practice. During a ball security drill early in the workout, Monken ran over to the Ravens’ wide receiver group for a quick demonstration of the Steelers’ fumble-hunting tendencies. Either they’d look to rip the ball out, Monken said, or they’d try to punch it out.

“I’ve been here for three games [against the Steelers], and we’ve turned it over eight times. We’ve fumbled it seven times,” Monken said after the practice. “If that doesn’t tell you that [it’s] a priority, I don’t know what is.”

Ball security has dogged the Ravens against Pittsburgh. Since 2020, they’ve lost 10 fumbles in nine games against the Steelers — and just 32 fumbles in 72 other games over that span.

In a rivalry with games almost always decided by one score, several of those Ravens turnovers have proved costly. According to TruMedia, the Ravens have lost 42.7 “expected” points against Pittsburgh since 2020 because of fumbles. The Steelers? Just 10.6 points on their three fumbles lost against the Ravens.

Among the lowlights: In a 2020 game in Baltimore, Jackson lost two fumbles in the red zone. The Steelers won 28-24.

In a 2021 game in Baltimore, center Bradley Bozeman flubbed a shotgun snap near midfield to quarterback Tyler Huntley, who recovered the fumble, only to lose it himself on a strip-sack by outside linebacker T.J. Watt. The short field turned into a field goal for Pittsburgh. The Steelers won in overtime 16-13.

In a 2023 game in Pittsburgh, running back Justice Hill had a ball punched out by defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi after a short catch midway through the second quarter. The Steelers, trailing 10-0, turned the turnover into their first scoring drive of the game. By the time outside linebacker Alex Highsmith strip-sacked Jackson late in the fourth quarter, Pittsburgh was ahead 14-10. The Steelers won 17-10.

And, in Week 11 this season, running back Derrick Henry lost his first fumble since December 2022 on the Ravens’ opening drive, raked out by outside linebacker Nick Herbig. Just before halftime, tight end Isaiah Likely lost his first career fumble, ripped out and recovered by former Ravens inside linebacker Patrick Queen. Both came in Ravens territory. Both led to Pittsburgh field goals. The Steelers won 18-16.

2. No defense has flustered Jackson as consistently as the Steelers’. And few defensive fronts can get on him as fast as Pittsburgh’s, either.

Herbig, Watt, Highsmith and defensive lineman Cameron Heyward all have at least 12 quick quarterback pressures (three seconds or less) this season, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, giving the Steelers four of the NFL’s top 53 quick-pressure creators. Herbig is tied for 16th with 18, while Watt is tied for 28th (15).

In Jackson, the Ravens have one of the NFL’s best escape artists. But not every broken play turns into a good play. Jackson was just 4-for-12 for 34 yards when pressured in Week 11, according to TruMedia, and took two sacks.

The Ravens’ best answer for the Steelers’ pass rush might rest in their play-calling — specifically, more plays that don’t let Pittsburgh get home. The Steelers’ secondary has struggled against quick-strike throws, ranking 25th in the NFL in expected points added per play on passes delivered within 2.5 seconds of the snap. In Week 11, Jackson went 7-for-10 for 57 yards on those shorter drop-backs.

“Screen game, quick game, ability to check the ball down, get through your progressions are a huge part of it,” Monken said Wednesday. “We’ve got to continue ... to incorporate all of those aspects into our passing game so that we’re not ‘big little’ — either big play, or we’re second-and-10. … And we’ve been good at that for most of the year. We just got to continue to do it this week.”

3. The Steelers’ passing attack changed for the better when Russell Wilson replaced Justin Fields as their starting quarterback in Week 7. But the viability of a Pickens-less offense is unclear.

Pittsburgh’s top wide receiver was ruled out of Saturday’s game because of a lingering hamstring injury, leaving the Steelers short on skill-position playmakers. Pickens leads the team in receptions (55), receiving yards (850) and catches of 20-plus yards (16), and he had a game-high eight catches for 89 yards against the Ravens in Week 11.

The Steelers have struggled mightily in their 275 snaps without Pickens on the field this season. Their offense would rank last in the NFL in yards per play (3.9), last in success rate (the percentage of plays with positive expected points added), last in explosive-play rate and 29th in EPA per play, according to TruMedia.

Wilson hasn’t fared any better without his favorite target. The offense has averaged just 3.7 yards per play with Pickens sidelined since Fields’ benching. In Pittsburgh’s 27-13 loss Sunday to the Eagles, Philadelphia’s elite defense opened the game by forcing five straight three-and-outs.

“No specific player changes things too dramatically,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said Thursday of Pickens’ potential absence. “The quarterback, obviously, missing a game, that would be the most dramatic for any team, and then you kind of work your way through. A player of that caliber [Pickens] is a factor, but they still have other really good players that they’ll be playing with, just like we will if some of our guys don’t play.”

4. The Ravens might not have to worry about Pickens on Saturday. But the officiating could still be an issue.

Bill Vinovich, the referee in last season’s Super Bowl, will officiate Saturday’s game. Although Vinovich and his crew are not a flag-happy bunch — their per-game total is about average, according to NFLPenalties.com — defensive-pass-interference calls have not exactly been ignored.

Over 13 games this season, Vinovich is second in the NFL in DPI penalties (21) and first in assessed penalty yardage (358). That might not be good news for the Ravens, who are third in the NFL in DPIs (13). That also might not be good news for Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who’s second in the league in DPIs (six).

“You can never say that this crew calls this [penalty] more — I’ve learned that,” Harbaugh said Thursday. “I’ve learned that by going down that road: ‘They call more holding. They call more pass interference. They never call defensive holding.’ Whatever it might be, and all of a sudden, the next thing you know, flags fly or they don’t fly. …

“The bottom line, really, is, just play the technique as best as you can the way it’s coached in every circumstance, and the penalties should come down. They really should by playing good technique, and we’ll be chasing that in this game for sure.”

5. After the Los Angeles Chargers’ win Thursday night over the Denver Broncos, the Ravens’ potential road to the AFC’s top wild-card spot is a little easier. The Chargers and Broncos will enter Week 17 with 9-6 records, and neither has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens.

With a win Saturday over Pittsburgh, the Ravens’ chances of earning the AFC’s No. 5 overall playoff seed — and a likely road matchup with the AFC South champion Houston Texans in the wild-card round — would fall from about 49% to about 41% as their hopes for a top-four seed rise, according to the Times’ playoff simulator. Their chances of earning the No. 6 seed would also dip from about 11% to about 4%.

With a defeat, however, the Ravens would be locked into a wild-card berth if they reach the playoffs. A loss to Pittsburgh would make them the heavy favorites to earn the No. 5 seed (about 65% odds). It would also open the door for the No. 6 seed (about 26% odds) and another potential rematch against the Steelers in the wild-card round.