Maryland has just five years to meet the first of its ambitious climate deadlines, and, so far, its attempts to slash greenhouse gas emissions have fallen short.

That’s the finding of new analysis by a team of researchers from the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, whose modeling indicates that the state is well behind the pace needed to scrub 60% of its atmosphere-warming emissions by 2031.

Maryland’s contributions to climate change continue to fall, but, according to the new modeling, the state will have reduced greenhouse gas emissions 42% by 2031 compared to 2006 levels — well below the 60% goal set in law. This marks a setback from an analysis released by the same researchers just three years ago, when they found that the state was on track to cut emissions in half by the 2031 deadline.

Part of the holdup is due to President Donald Trump’s rollback of federal climate programs, especially to Biden-era climate initiatives and federal incentives for electric vehicles.

These Trump administration policies have put a big dent into adoption of electric cars. And states like California and Maryland have delayed EV sales mandates.

As a result, emissions from Maryland’s transportation sector, its largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, are projected to decline at a slower pace.

Three years ago, the University of Maryland team had projected that the state’s transportation sector would see a 38% decrease in emissions by 2031. Today, that projected drop is just 23%.

Maryland Environmental Secretary Serena McIlwain, who chairs the climate commission, told members at a meeting Monday that the findings aren’t surprising. State leaders understood that it would be challenging to reach these goals even under a federal administration supportive of climate science.

“Federal rollbacks are actually setting us back and making our job harder. We knew that,” she said. “That also makes our job on this commission even more important.”

Kathleen Kennedy, who led the University of Maryland research team, told commissioners Monday that her analysis only accounts for explicit federal policies, not hypothetical ones. That means that political stances, like Trump’s general opposition to offshore wind, weren’t factored in.

Even so, Kennedy’s team found that Trump is only partly to blame.

Some changes compared to the 2023 analysis are a result of updated data, not policy shifts, Kennedy said in an email.

When researchers looked at these questions three years ago, they hadn’t expected data centers to suck up so much power.

Data center demand is a primary reason for the delayed retirement of the Brandon Shores coal-fired power plant, a large source of climate-warming carbon dioxide outside of Baltimore. It’s also one reason researchers are expecting generation from natural gas — another fossil fuel — to climb.

At the same time, renewable power sources like solar and wind haven’t taken off in Maryland as much as researchers expected.

In all, Kennedy’s team found that, without the Trump administration rollbacks, Maryland still would be in worse shape than previously thought: on track for a 45% reduction in emissions by 2031.

To Kim Coble, the commission’s co-chair and executive director of the Maryland League of Conservation Voters, the analysis shows that the state’s progress has suffered from both federal rollbacks and a lack of follow-through on the state’s climate ambitions.

That Maryland has this far to go is “a profound data point that should be motivating and frightening all in the same breath,” Coble said.

Though emissions tied to the power sector also see lesser declines under the new modeling, the impact of Trump’s attacks on offshore wind might be understated.

Maryland leaders still hope that wind turbines off the Eastern Shore will one day put a big dent into electricity generation emissions, but the Trump administration and its support for a local anti-wind lawsuit have thrown that entire industry into jeopardy.

Kennedy said in an email her modeling assumes that Maryland’s only permitted offshore wind farm, sited off the coast of Ocean City but tangled up in court for now, will come online eventually.

According to greenhouse gas tracking by the Maryland Department of the Environment, also presented at Monday’s meeting, the state’s emissions are down 32% compared to 2006 levels.

On that score, researchers found a silver lining.

Within two decades, the University of Maryland team expects, the state will have made up for some recent setbacks. Even considering Trump’s actions, Maryland will have cut greenhouse gas emissions 64% by 2045, double today’s progress and a result effectively unchanged from the last time the research team crunched the numbers.

That would still leave Maryland short of the mark.

Under state law, Maryland’s net greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 should be zero.