The state has big plans to grow its Maryland Area Rail Commuter train service as riders flock back to it after a pandemic-era falloff.

The MARC growth and transformation plan, released Wednesday, charts five- and 15-year visions for more frequent train service across all three lines, along with a handful of new destinations, including an East Baltimore station.

It also includes a longer-term goal of extending the Brunswick Line to Cumberland, a small, Appalachian town in the skinniest part of the Maryland panhandle that’s enjoying a revival.

If funded, the bold and expensive plan could help MARC transform from a commuter-focused service to a reliable option for getting to concerts, sporting events and other happenings in the Baltimore-Washington region during traditionally off-peak hours. It comes as the state moves to supercharge housing construction around some MARC stations to create new pools of future riders.

The Penn Line, which operates on Amtrak-owned tracks between Baltimore’s Penn Station and Washington’s Union Station, is by far the most popular MARC route. It has seen a 52% daily ridership bump since January, according to the Maryland Transit Administration.

But officials see more potential growth on the MARC Camden Line, which runs from Camden Yards to Union Station, and the Brunswick Line, which provides service between Washington and Western Maryland and West Virginia. The lines have seen 66% and 85% ridership jumps since January, respectively, according to agency figures.

The Camden Line, in particular, has “untapped” potential because of the central location of its northernmost station. Baltimore’s Camden Station sees a 27% average increase in trips when the Orioles are playing a home game, the plan states.

Here are highlights from the plan’s three phases:

5 years

• Higher-frequency service on all three lines during weekday peak hours, including Camden Line trains every 30 minutes or better
• More off-peak and weekend trains, including hourly Penn Line trains and select, limited-stop trains every half hour
• A new hourly bus line in place of the Camden Line, which now provides commuter service Monday to Friday only for off-peak and weekend trips
• A new bus service between Hagerstown and the Monocacy train station on the Brunswick Line
• Estimated cost: Roughly $400 million.

15 years

• Penn Line trains between Martin State Airport in Middle River and Washington every 20 minutes or better during peak hours and 30 minutes or better during off-peak times
• Weekday Penn Line service extended to midnight and weekend service until 1 a.m.
• New weekend trains on the Brunswick Line between Frederick and Washington
• Penn Line trains extending into Alexandria, Virginia, and a pilot extension to Wilmington, Delaware, that would connect MARC riders to Philadelphia’s SEPTA rail service
• New stations in East Baltimore and Elkton, and select Penn Line trains serving the Camden Station thanks to a new rail connector
• Estimated cost: Roughly $1.8 billion.

And beyond

• Penn Line service to Wilmington, Delaware, every two hours during peak times and Brunswick Line service in both directions during peak hours
• Off-peak and weekend Camden and Brunswick lines service every hour or better
• Extension of the Brunswick Line to Hancock and Cumberland
• Estimated cost: $4.4 billion.

The plan has potential limitations, however.

Amtrak and CSX Transportation, the freight rail company that owns the tracks on which the Camden and Brunswick lines operate, plan to increase service levels in the coming decade.

“Any reduction in track capacity may increase the risk of delays for MARC and limit the potential to expand MARC services,” the plan states, though it later notes that the MTA’s proposed expansion considers Amtrak and CSX’s goals.

Interference with Amtrak and CSX trains has historically been a leading cause of MARC delays; both have increased the access fees to use their railroads in recent years.

Such interference would be fully remedied only by the MTA acquiring its own railways for MARC, an idea the agency has toyed with but that would be pricey — it would require negotiating right-of-way purchases or even laying new steel track.

Speaking of pricey — this plan comes in at a steep $13.7 billion overall, after adding costs associated with each phase to the $7.1 billion in “baseline” spending necessary to maintain current MARC service levels long term. The baseline would pay for things such as new trains and assisting Amtrak and CSX with bridge and track improvements.

Given the state’s budget reality, that’s a tall order. The plan says Maryland “will need to identify funding and financing” but offers little else besides mentioning that the state could pursue federal funding, seek “private contributions” or try to leverage property tax revenue raised through future station-area development.

Though MARC ridership is up overall, especially since many federal agencies revived in-office work requirements this year, ridership figures lag behind those from before the pandemic. Monthly ridership surpassed 500,000 in April for the first time since 2020.

Maryland is also trying to boost transit-oriented development around some MARC stations, a plan that could create thousands of new residential units in walking distance to train stations. Beyond that, more than 26,700 residential units are being planned in and around the greater MARC corridor, according to the MTA.