Over the last two decades, Union Bridge farmer David Burrier has worked with a broker to package around half a million of his soybean bushels to send to China.

China, the world’s top purchaser of soybeans, gets a large share of its beans from American farmers. Last year alone, China bought more than half of the soybeans exported by them, or $12.6 billion worth. The more than 12,000 Maryland families growing the beans have leaned on the foreign trade partner to keep both the demand and prices of their bushels from dropping.

This time last year, Burrier was already working on orders to China, which he said are placed by the millions through broker contracts at the start of September. But the leaves are changing and the beans are ready to be cut, and Burrier hasn’t heard a thing.

As the farmer enters his 50th harvest season, he joins an industry at the whim of a broiling trade war. China has stopped its usual orders and canceled deliveries, which has led to lower prices — threatening losses for the businesses selling one of Maryland’s most valuable crops.

“Now’s where the rubber meets the road,” Burrier said.

The country’s pullback is part of an effort to retaliate against tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by President Donald Trump. China responded with a 34% tax on American soybeans, among other goods. The added cost has made American crops less attractive than competitors’.

“The frustration is overwhelming,” American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland said in a public statement. Exports are surging in Brazil, and in Argentina, where more than 1 million tons of soybeans have been sold to China. In early October, 14 Democratic senators signed a letter to Trump criticizing an aid package to Argentina that they argue will further hurt American agriculture.

William Layton, a farmer in Vienna, Maryland, and former member of the United Soybean Board, said the longer it takes to strike a trade deal, the more farmers will be harmed.

“Without that demand, we have all this supply and prices are just in the tank,” he said.

U.S. soybean exports to China have plummeted since earlier this year, creating a surplus that’s difficult to sell, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. In response, the price of soybeans nationwide fell from about $13 per bushel in early 2024 to $10 now.

China has not purchased any American soybeans so far this fall, making the likelihood of soybean growers making a profit this year “almost impossible,” Layton said.

The industry has become more difficult, he said, as farmers need to grow exponentially more acres — sometimes up tens of thousands — to afford equipment and produce the bushels necessary to break even. Layton and other trade representatives spent years trying to nurture relationships in the global market and build up sales to China so that farmers can find more opportunities to sell their crop.

On Oct. 1, Trump wrote on social media, “Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for ‘negotiating’ reasons only, not buying. We’ve made so much money on Tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our Farmers.”

The bailouts aren’t new for Trump, who issued $28 billion in aid to soybean farmers during a tit for tat over tariffs during his first term, though the source of that money, the Commodity Credit Corporation fund, now only has $4 billion remaining, according to Politico. The outlet was one of several to report that the recent shutdown stalled aid and that the furloughing of some U.S. Department of Agriculture political appointees may be to blame.

Layton worries that with nearly half of USDA employees on furlough, farmers will not be able to get the loan assistance they need from local Farm Service Agency offices.

The USDA said in a statement that “the farm economy is in a difficult situation.” The agency described Trump as the “most pro-farmer President of our lifetime” and said he is using the tools available to make sure farmers can continue operations. “However, there is nothing new to share at this time,” they wrote.

The Maryland Department of Agriculture did not comment on whether additional state resources would be available for farmers in the interim.

Wendell Meekins, who leases land from 17 farms to grow soybeans through his R&W Farms business in Cambridge, said Maryland farmers are in better shape than those in other regions.

Although the crop’s contributed around $200 million to Maryland’s economy in recent years, the state grows only a fraction of those in the Midwest. Meekins sells most of his soybeans locally to Perdue Farms, Tyson Foods and Amick Farms, who use it for fuel, oils and animal feed — the latter is especially important since poultry is Maryland’s largest agricultural sector.

Meekins isn’t panicking. He believes tariffs will eventually lead to more money for U.S soybeans once China comes back to the table. “I can see the bigger picture of what this could do for us,” he said.

But farmers like Burrier aren’t sure they have time to wait.

He’s watched the number of businesses growing soybeans diminish over the years. Since 2002, he and wife Belinda have quadrupled the size of their farm to try and keep up with the market, growing to at least 1,200 acres. Burrier knows a bailout won’t save him or any other farmer — he wants a thriving market.

“Honestly, there’s not enough domestic demand to underwrite what we would lose,” he said.