Local leaders say Trump administration policies will dent the county budget.

Montgomery County will take in $854 million less than expected over the next six years, county budget analysts now project.

At this point in the previous two fiscal years, analysts increased their revenue estimates — by $225 million in fiscal 2024 and $132 million in fiscal 2025.

“We’ll have to have some difficult conversations about what we’re able to fund moving forward,” County Council member Kate Stewart, who chairs the budget committee, said Monday.

“This is exactly what we’ve been talking about for the past 10 months, since last January when this federal administration — the Trump administration — took over,” Stewart added.

A White House spokesperson could not immediately be reached for comment Monday.

Revenue is still expected to increase each year, but this latest write-down could complicate budget planning. For fiscal year 2027, which begins in July, the county is expected to receive $100 million less in tax revenue than last projected.

The county’s total revenue in the current fiscal year is expected to exceed $6.6 billion.

‘Am I nervous?’

The budget analysts, in a report the council will discuss Tuesday, said most of the expected decline in property and income taxes is based on an assumption that federal policies will hurt the economy and potentially lead to recession.

Chief Administrative Officer Richard Madaleno said the county has tried to forecast how federal tax law changes, including tax breaks for the wealthy, will change local income tax revenue.

He also said the county’s reliance on a payment-in-lieu-of-tax program — used to incentivize housing developments in certain areas or of a certain level of affordability — have also reduced property tax revenue.

But Madaleno said the county’s outlook may change in the coming weeks. And he remained optimistic about the county’s fiscal future.

“Am I nervous? No,” he said.

The Maryland comptroller on Friday will release statewide revenue estimates. That new data could further change the county’s projections.

The projections could change again at the end of the year when the state Department of Assessments and Taxation releases its report for properties assessed this year.

Madaleno said that the write-down may also factor into conversations about pay raises for county employees.

The county government directly employs more than 10,000 people and it funds the budgets for the public school system and Montgomery College.

The county is also in contract negotiations with unions representing general employees and firefighters.

Spokespeople for the unions, UFCW Local 1994 MCGEO and IAFF Local 1664, couldn’t immediately be reached for comment Monday.