The federal government shutdown will darken an already bleak outlook for Montgomery County, where tens of thousands of employees were put out of work overnight.

Recent economic turmoil has already fueled concerns that the county — and the broader region — may lose its highly trained and educated workforce, including from the National Institutes of Health and nearby medical research firms and nonprofits, especially those connected to the United States Agency for International Development, which the Trump administration dismantled and merged with the State Department.

The region’s public and private sectors are intertwined, and a brain drain would strip Montgomery County and the region of the talent that has long attracted large employers.

Anthony Featherstone, executive director of the workforce development organization WorkSource Montgomery, said it’s too early to know whether the region is losing its talent base.

But he’s concerned.

“I can say that is a threat — that we lose a lot of the talent that we have, not just in Montgomery County but the region,” he said. “That is definitely a threat.”

The warning signs have been flashing, particularly in Montgomery County.

Researchers at the D.C.-based Brookings Institution have said the county is the “center of gravity” for regional economic troubles and home to some of its “biggest pain points.”

And they said a shutdown would only compound the problems.

“If there is a government shutdown and if the directive from the administration is to use the government shutdown to further mass layoffs, that is going to exacerbate the trends that we are seeing, obviously,” said Amy Liu, a senior fellow at Brookings.

Montgomery County lost a greater share of its federal workforce and its private sector jobs than any other county in the region from June 2024 to June 2025, according to a recent Brookings report on warning signs for the regional economy.

The county also had by far the biggest jump in mass layoff notices.

While private sector growth has plateaued regionally, Montgomery County was one of only three core counties where private sector jobs decreased.

What’s more, the number of active for-sale home listings in Montgomery County doubled from June 2024 to June 2025.

These trends have prompted worry about Montgomery County’s ability to retain the scientists, health professionals and researchers who’ve lost or left their federal jobs since January.

Where those workers end up is unclear.

Brookings researchers noted the importance of the NIH and the Food and Drug Administration, which have been the largest employers in Montgomery County. They pointed out that private sector jobs were declining in the county. In counties where the private sector is growing, jobs in health care were a major factor.

The emerging goal for policymakers and economic development professionals has been to keep talent in the region. But, as the number of federal employees losing their jobs or accepting buyouts has grown, the labor market has tightened.

Companies in Maryland’s life sciences industry are navigating a changing policy landscape, and some are taking a “measured approach” to hiring, said Kelly Schulz, CEO of the Maryland Tech Council.

Schulz said it’s crucial for the state to retain the “exceptionally talented individuals with deep institutional knowledge and scientific expertise” who lost their jobs because of federal spending cuts.

“It is vital to keep them in Maryland, and having a predictable policy landscape that incentivizes life sciences research and innovation is critical to achieving that,” said Schulz, who served stints as the state labor secretary and commerce secretary under former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan.

Despite concerns, county and state economic development professionals are hopeful the region will weather the storm.

Featherstone pointed out that Montgomery County’s life sciences and health care companies and organizations are still hiring. Among county employers, the biopharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has posted the third-highest number of job openings over the last several months.

Various government agencies, academic institutions and other organizations have pushed to connect former federal workers and contractors with new jobs.

The Maryland Tech Council has enrolled former federal scientists in biopharmaceutical lab courses as part of a workforce training program. The hope is to give them a competitive edge when job hunting.

The Bioscience Education Center at Montgomery College recently held a networking and job fair. The county granted priority hiring status to former federal workers. The county and the state have sought to lure former federal workers to teaching roles.

The county has also opened a career center in Wheaton to help former federal employees and contractors find new jobs.

But these efforts haven’t tempered concerns about people leaving Montgomery County or the broader region.

Brookings researchers used home sales as a proxy to gauge how many people may be exiting the area, and they found a “big jump” in the number of homes on the market.

Ten of the 11 counties studied by Brookings saw active home sales increase more than 50% in the last year.