When state researchers predicted Maryland public school enrollment four years ago, they anticipated a rosier picture.

A 2021 enrollment projection report forecast annual growth of at least 1,500 students per year through the end of the decade.

It seems like their crystal ball was blurry: Enrollment data released last week revealed nearly all Maryland districts have actually shrunk.

“Admittedly, this fall was a bit of a surprise to us,” said Geoff Sanderson, Maryland schools’ accountability chief.

The state’s public schools have lost more than 11,000 students since last school year, a troubling sign for local education leaders whose funding is tied to how many students they serve. Fewer kids — and fewer dollars — could lead to laying off teachers, closing schools and cutting programs.

Politicians, district leaders and researchers are now searching for answers to explain the stark drop. They’re looking for more data on immigrant students and birth rates, along with other possible explanations for why projections were off base.

“There’s so much information we don’t yet have,” said State Board of Education President Josh Michael.

Maryland’s public schools now serve roughly 880,000 students.

Superintendents are already sounding the alarm, writing to Gov. Wes Moore in anticipation of a budgetary hit and asking him to help stabilize their funding.

The state is bracing for a $1.4 billion shortfall, an economic squeeze that could influence Moore’s response.

“The state’s current budget outlook really presents us with some simple arithmetic and some stark choices,” said Christopher Meyer, a Maryland Center on Economic Policy research analyst. “We’re either going to have to make some pretty deep cuts to public services — like education, like health care — or we’re going to have to raise the revenue.”

Asked for comment on whether the governor would consider the superintendents’ request for stabilized funding, Moore spokesperson Rhyan Lake did not directly answer, but said the governor has made education a priority of his administration.

Fewer babies and immigrants

Declining birth rates are driving lower enrollment in schools across the country. Fewer babies means fewer kindergartners to replace graduating seniors.

Roughly 70,000 babies were born in each of the school years 2019 and 2020 — kids now old enough to enter school. By contrast, more than 77,000 babies were born in each of 2007 and 2008. That cohort is getting ready to graduate from high school.

The other factors at play are harder to quantify. But officials say it’s likely that decisions made in Washington — about immigration policy and the federal workforce — are bleeding over and impacting Maryland’s campuses.

Principals say the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown is hurting schools, as families are fearful that ICE activity near campuses could lead to their separation.

“With what’s going on with ICE, some of our students, we just don’t know where they went. People are afraid,” said Brenda Wolff, the vice president of Montgomery County’s school board.

At the state level, Michael has similar questions about immigrant families. Are these children living in Maryland and just not enrolling in school?

“Never has there been an administration in the era of mass public schooling where we have treated immigrants this way, and so we just don’t have any modeling for it yet,” said Michael, who is also executive director of the Sherman Family Foundation, a financial supporter of The Banner.

Definitive answers are tough to come by.

A child’s designation as an English learner will sometimes be used as a proxy for whether they’re from an immigrant family, but it doesn’t mean they are in the country illegally.

Some preliminary data suggests a drop.

Montgomery County Public Schools experienced one of the steepest declines in enrollment this year, losing about 2% of its population. Superintendent Thomas Taylor said part of the reason is fewer students coming from other countries.

“It’s troubling to see the influence of the marketplace, and the influence of geopolitical events, and how they unfold locally here in Montgomery County. But those things are having an effect,” Taylor said.

For decades, Montgomery County Public Schools’ growth was tied to its large foreign-born population. In recent decades, the majority of new immigrants to Maryland have settled in either Prince George’s or Montgomery counties.

As of October, Montgomery County’s public schools welcomed just 111 newcomer students — defined as children who are brand-new to the country or are returning to the United States after years spent abroad.

By the same point in the 2023-24 school year, Montgomery County Public Schools had welcomed more than 400 newcomer students.

In Baltimore, school leaders say they’ve added far fewer Hispanic students this year than usual.

Statewide data suggests a slowdown, with public schools overall serving thousands fewer students who are learning English as a second language, according to estimates from the Public School Superintendents’ Association of Maryland.

“The decline in enrollment is likely due to these chilling effects of anti-immigrant policies and the expansion of immigration enforcement,” said Sophia Rodriguez, a New York University professor who has studied these issues.

Leaders of the immigration advocacy group Casa are urging school officials to tell families about the measures they have in place to ensure their safety.

“Youth should be focused on their education, not deportation,” said Shannon Wilk de Benitez, Casa’s education director.

Jobs, housing and homeschool

Other political factors may be factoring in, too. Maryland is losing federal jobs faster than any other state, as the Trump administration slashed positions traditionally viewed as stable employment.

Maryland was already losing residents to other states at a high rate in recent years.

“It’s entirely possible that losing 15,000 jobs could have contributed to families having to relocate for other jobs,” Meyer said.

Taylor said skyrocketing housing costs could also be pushing families with young children away.

On top of that, far more families chose to homeschool their children after the pandemic. More than 42,000 kids now learn at home, compared to about 28,000 in 2020.

Private school growth has been far less dramatic since the pandemic. The percentage of Maryland students attending private schools has fluctuated between roughly 12% and 13% since 2017.

State and local leaders will be watching enrollment trends closely, knowing a shrinking student body can trigger painful choices.

Montgomery County officials, so used to enrollment growth and stability, are discussing the possibility of school closures — something they haven’t had to confront in 40 years.

“It’s been so long since we’ve had a really substantive change in our enrollment — downward,” Taylor said.

Banner reporter Antonio Planas contributed to this story.