Montgomery County Public Schools enrollment dropped to a 10-year low.

Roughly 156,540 students attend county schools — a decrease of more than 2,600 kids since last year, according to preliminary data. While that’s less than a 2% drop, it’s part of a larger pattern of decline since the district’s peak enrollment in 2019.

MCPS predicts a more dramatic dive: a 9% dip from its 2019 peak to the enrollment forecast for 2031.

“This is an uncomfortable conversation for Montgomery County, because this has not been our experience for much of the past few decades,” MCPS Superintendent Thomas Taylor said.

The enrollment dive is part and parcel of big changes planned for Maryland’s largest district. The school system is in the midst of a boundary study for secondary campuses, and Taylor said he wants to expand that effort to elementary schools next.

Montgomery County is not alone in confronting enrollment declines. Districts across the country are confronting the consequences of lower birth rates and shifting demographic patterns.

“We’ve added a lot of housing, and we’ve added a lot of people, and we’ve grown very fast, but something else has changed,” Taylor said. “The percentage of households that have children has dramatically reduced.”

Fewer 5-year-olds

Montgomery County’s declines are driven by drops in kindergarten enrollment and international students.

The kindergarten data is straightforward to explain: Fewer children have been born in the county over the past several years.

The story of international student enrollment is more complex, with Taylor gesturing toward Washington but not going so far as to draw a line to the Trump administration’s aggressive approach to immigration.

“It may be causation, but it’s definitely correlation,” the superintendent said.

Maryland schools are funded based on enrollment, so fewer students in seats means less money flowing toward Montgomery County campuses.

In several cities across the country, school leaders have responded to enrollment drops by closing campuses — a painful choice that often devastates neighborhood families.

Taylor said it’s too soon to tell if those tough choices are in the county’s future.

“Not based on the projections that I have right now,” he said.

By 2031, the district anticipates enrollment dropping just below 150,000 students.