“Entertainment Tonight” was on the TV over the drinks cooler at my local pizza joint when the political ads started rollin’ like cannoli.

Larry Hogan is weak on abortion, said one

Angela Alsobrooks took tax breaks she didn’t deserve, said another.

Vote this way. Vote that way. You can’t afford to get it wrong, said them all.

September and October are the season for political advice in an election year. Either the Democrat from Prince George’s County or the Republican from Anne Arundel will succeed Maryland’s retiring senior senator, Ben Cardin.

It’s OK to pick by following your instincts. But this time you’ll need a degree in poli-sci to suss out all the wrinkles and permutations. Decide based on each candidate’s record and actions? Sure. Stick up a metaphorical wet finger to gauge the electoral winds? OK.

Or, you could bet the parlay.

If you’re not a gambler, betting the parlay means predicting the outcome of multiple contests, point spreads or individual performances. Correctly pick the Ravens beating the Commanders, the Orioles over the Royals and Navy knocking Air Force out by 14 and you could win big on a small wager. Crazy, I know.

You’ve got one vote in the Senate race. The prize is democracy, organized the way you want it.

Here’s a look at three factors to consider if you want your best bet at winning that prize based on your choice between Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s county executive, and Hogan, the former two-term governor.

And if you’re still not sure, email me, because I’d love to hear what’s holding you back.

Scenario #1

Harris and Hogan

Vice President Kamala Harris beats former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, but Hogan wins in deep-blue Maryland, making him the 51st Republican senator.

First up is reproductive rights. Hogan says he won’t vote for a national abortion ban, but as governor, he blocked funds to expand abortion access. And a GOP-controlled Senate presents a Harris presidency with a roadblock to judicial appointments that could expand or shrink those rights, including the U.S. Supreme Court.

A Maryland Republican in the Senate majority could be better than two Democrats, Alsobrooks and Sen. Chris Van Hollen. U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia was in a similar spot, and the conservative Democrat used his leverage to shape his party’s priorities far beyond his influence as a lawmaker — even after he shifted to being an independent.

Hogan’s best chance to benefit his constituents would be if his party wins the Senate and sets the agenda. As a Republican in a Democratic-controlled Senate, he rarely would be in Manchin’s spot.

There’s no parallel in the House, where U.S. Rep. Andy Harris is Maryland’s lone Republican in Congress. His Democratic colleagues say he helped secure money for the Key Bridge replacement — even though it’s still not secure. That has as much to do with the chaos driven by the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus, which Harris now leads.

You also have to wonder if today’s GOP would tolerate independence in the Senate less than the Democrats. We’re a long way from the days when U.S. Sen. Charles “Mac” Mathias, a liberal Republican from Maryland, stood up against his party over Vietnam and President Richard Nixon.

Scenario #2

Maryland, the tipping point

Alsobrooks’ ads feature Democratic consultant James “Ragin’ Cajun” Carville warning that without Maryland, there is no path to a Democratic Senate.

Maybe.

A Hogan win won’t affect the balance of power if Democrats lose incumbents Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Or maybe it will.

Democrats are sure to lose in West Virginia, where Republican Gov. Jim Justice has a 30-point lead over his opponent in the race to replace Manchin. But if you study polls posted by FiveThirtyEight and the Cook Political Report, you’ll see Brown is up by as much as 4 points.

Democrats are unexpectedly competitive against incumbent Republicans in Florida, where Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is within a point of Rick Scott, and Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred is right behind Ted Cruz. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is a point ahead of Deb Fischer, potentially taking away a Republican seat.

If Democrats keep Ohio or limit their losses to just two seats and win in Florida, Texas or Nebraska, the Senate would be 50-50 in January. A Harris victory would give Tim Walz as vice president the deciding vote.

If Maryland goes Republican, the Democrats need one more seat. But in a Senate where Walz presides, the pressure on Hogan would be even greater. How will Hogan, never known for having a thick skin, deal with that?

Scenario #3

Trump wins

Maryland won’t go for Trump — it’s just not a competitive state. But if you vote for Trump, the question is, just how much do you hate Hogan?

Many Republicans who vote for the former president are likely to dislike Hogan because of the way he handled the COVID pandemic in Maryland — sensibly and, while not perfectly, better than many other governors did — and also because he’s been clear he doesn’t support the former president’s return to the White House.

So, if Trump gets back into power, how much payback can Hogan expect for disloyalty? Trump is not known for suffering critics gladly, and while he did endorse the former governor, Democratic Maryland is likely to suffer with a Republican who is cut out of the conversation on White House orders.

If the Democrats take back the House and the Senate winds up tied, it won’t be long before they try to hold Trump accountable for high crimes and misdemeanors — past, present or still to be committed.

Charges might originate in the House Oversight Committee, headed by Democrat Jamie Raskin. The constitutional scholar from Montgomery County is less likely to use the committee for political grandstanding than the current committee chair, Republican James Comer of Kentucky. But House Democrats have already impeached Trump twice, and it’s no long shot there will be a third.

Hogan often talks about his father, Larry Hogan Sr., and how he was the first Republican in Congress to support Nixon’s impeachment.

If he wins, he might just be asked to follow his father’s example.

You can’t really bet a parlay on the Senate race. Gambling on elections is illegal in Maryland, for now.

Even if you could, you should vote your conscience and beliefs.

What are the odds, after all, that you’ll come out a winner if you don’t?