According to Fortune magazine, nearly half of the states in the union, including Maryland, are “effectively in a recession.” Realtor Samantha Zarnes, whose territory covers Anne Arundel County, saw the early signs — in potential facial lines.

“In January, the woman I get Botox from said that when they announced the tariffs, within the first 30 days, a lot of people canceled their memberships,” she said.

A recession indicator is defined as an economic trend that shows spending in certain sectors has slowed. Even the legendary and presumably well-paid Amy Poehler joked during her recent “Saturday Night Live” hosting gig: “That’s right, I am a podcaster now, and if that’s not a recession indicator, I don’t know what is.”

Though podcasting was not an indicator for the several Maryland residents I spoke to, they all had their own recent signs that it was time to do without things.

Many Maryland employees have faced some serious choices living in a state that is losing federal workers faster than any other. I knew it had gotten bad when one of my good friends, a government worker, canceled her ever-reliable, annual, fancy birthday trip after she was furloughed. She’s since been laid off.

For me, it’s been canceling my weekly farmers market visits for local cheese and exotic mushrooms, and instead sticking to the Lidls and the Safeways I’m used to. It’s not the first time I’ve found myself cutting back. But it’s admittedly scary.

“We have lived through big events and think, ‘This is the topper. We couldn’t feel more uncertain and scared,’ and then something else happens and we think, ‘This is even worse!’” said Elizabeth MacBride, a University of Maryland-educated business writer, consultant and co-author of the upcoming “Capital Evolution: The New American Economy.”

One Maryland woman, part of a “two federal-employee household,” started canceling streaming and digital subscriptions back in January, despite her family’s using them daily. That turned out to be a smart move when she was laid off a month later. The family has since cut landscaping, vacation and trips to the local farmers market, where she got her expensive “bougie yogurt.” “I didn’t get a pedicure all summer, where I would have [normally] had at least three,” said the woman, who asked to remain anonymous because her husband is still employed by the government.

Anne Arundel County resident Heather Cassity, a small-business owner, and her husband, a federal employee, are both military veterans. At the start of this presidential administration, she said, “we adopted a whole new way of life in this household,” canceling travel, needed home repairs and ”all extra expenses. No apps, streaming and subscriptions with the exception of two, Amazon & YouTube TV, which will be the next to go,” Cassity wrote in an email.

They’ve also diversified their investment portfolio and borrowed against their life insurance to pay off high-interest debt. “Are we safe? That remains to be seen. Our goals for the foreseeable future — spend less, save and earn more,” she wrote, adding that they now read The Banner through their local library. Good choice!

“Traditionally in a recession when people are worried, spending on big-ticket items like cars and furniture goes down, and luxuries like vacations and expensive meals also go down,” MacBride said. “Prices are up. People are nervous.”

But not so nervous that they stop needing a treat, though that might sound counterintuitive. “During really emotional times, people spend more on small and affordable luxuries,” MacBride said. ”We learned this after 9/11, or when we went into sharp recessions. Lipstick sales went up and also alcohol sales.” That makes sense. If things are terrible, it’s sometimes nice to be pretty and a little blurry.

Some affected purchases are a lot larger than lipstick, though. Zarnes said the real estate game has changed, especially since June, when she noticed a slowdown leading into what is usually her busiest season.

“Last year, a buyer would call and say, ‘Hey, I wanna buy a house,’ and within seven to 10 days, we’d have a contract. It was quick, bada-bing, bada-boom. Now, I find that seven-to-10-day window could be three weeks, four weeks where they start the process, and rather than respond in 24 hours, they say, ‘I’ll do it this weekend, or ‘We’re out of town, we’ll get back to you.’ The urgency isn’t there.”

In the monthly networking events she hosts for women in business, “the general consensus was that everybody was saying they don’t have any business,” Zarnes said. “It’s not just Realtors. We’ve heard it everywhere. ‘I’ve got nothing. I’m dry.’”

The former federal employee whose husband is still working understands the buckling down of expenses. “Everything is so high. For local business, we are your clients, or at least a lot of them. What part of your economy do we make up? We’re the ones who are treating ourselves to massages, going to your boutiques, getting our hair cut. The effects will trickle down for years.”

It also affects the most basic needs like food prices, which are up 30% since February 2020, according to MacBride. Frozen french fries are one of her favorite treats. “In the past I would have grabbed the nicest bag, but now I find myself standing in front of the freezer, looking at the bags, thinking ‘Which one is giving me more ounces?’”

Monica Resa of Severna Park has been more budget-conscious since 2022, when grocery prices began rising — and they haven’t stopped since. She’s stayed creatively frugal with an eye on retirement by participating in free activities like hikes, game nights in with friends and avoiding eating out — “really just tightening my food budget, which is only $120 a month.”

Wise strategies like this are “one of the few things that gives us a sense of control in this type of economy,” MacBride said. “You may lose their jobs through not fault of their own, but you can control where you shop, what you buy, maybe putting a little more in the bank.

“Control what you can control,” she said, “and let go of the rest.”

What are your personal recession indicators? Let me know in the comments.