When word spread last week that Baltimore’s population had grown for the first time after a decade of decline, some in City Hall were quick to declare victory.

But those familiar with the city’s real estate market said the truth may be more directly linked to macroeconomic forces outside the city government’s control.

Soaring construction costs and mortgage interest rates have put the suburbs and other cities out of reach for more families. The city has long struggled to curb out-migration to the surrounding counties, with those who have left citing school quality, crime and square footage as driving factors.

“The cost of [Washington], D.C., and the D.C. suburbs have continued to go up and up, and Baltimore looks like a rental and homeownership bargain,” said Wayne Curtis, a veteran real estate agent who specializes in selling homes within the Baltimore Beltway.

It’s not just negative incentives driving the housing market. Several other factors have given Baltimore an edge, including widespread return-to-office policies that make living close to the office a bonus, growing preferences for more walkable neighborhoods and financial incentives for city homebuyers. Fewer homicides and fewer City Hall scandals may also be helping change opinions of the city.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau show a modest population gain in Baltimore, about a 0.1% increase. The uptick was primarily driven by the city losing fewer people to domestic migration, a Banner analysis found. The city lost about 50% fewer people to net domestic migration in 2024 than it did in 2023. The city’s population is now 568,271, about 750 more residents than in 2023.

Relative to its suburban neighbors, Baltimore boasted the lowest median home price of $225,000 in February, according to a monthly report from Bright MLS, a listing service that maintains a database of properties for sale.

Baltimore’s median home price hit a record high in July last year when it eclipsed $250,000, but the value still pales in comparison to Howard County, for example, where the median home price exceeded $600,000.

Last year’s macroeconomic trends appear to still be holding in 2025. The Trump administration’s efforts to slash the federal workforce has — so far — not clearly hurt the D.C. market, which includes parts of Maryland and Northern Virginia. Though listings were up last week 30% compared to the same week last year, the number of pending contracts also increased. The median list price was $620,000.

For some, living in Baltimore means a higher quality of life.

“I could never afford the type of house I live in now in Seattle,” said Washington native Jacque Gbalipre, who works with undergraduates at the Johns Hopkins University.

Gbalipre, who moved to the city in 2020, said she appreciates the commutable distance to work and the tight-knit feel of her neighborhood. “I want to be in this environment for the foreseeable future,” she said.

Live Baltimore, which has given grants to Gbalipre and other buyers, said today’s consumers — plagued by high mortgage interest rates and high construction and materials costs — may have more financial support in Baltimore than anywhere else in the region.

“We’ve been able to make homeownership affordable,” said Meghan McCorkell, executive director of Live Baltimore, the city’s marketing arm.

The city’s 279 neighborhoods, she added, offer enough housing diversity for everyone, whether it’s parents with school-aged children or older adults looking to downsize. And government officials have been working closely with nonprofits and the business community to rally around the message.

A collective focus on rehabilitating vacant homes and revitalizing neighborhoods also may be helping pull people into the city, said Krissy Doherty, a real estate agent with Northrop Realty.

With rent rates rising and becoming more unmanageable, more consumers are looking to buy, Doherty said, especially younger millennials.

It’s too soon to say if the population gains will carry over, but Curtis, the veteran Monument Sotheby’s International Realty agent, said it may well depend on the direction of the economy under a new White House that has been eager to shrink the federal government, a major employer of the Baltimore-area workforce.

Growth in the city’s Hispanic population in recent years may also be complicated by President Donald Trump’s immigration policies.

For now, he said, this generation of first-time homebuyers, with different priorities than their predecessors, may be helping to fuel the growth.

“Neighborhoods, restaurants, a lot of new development and, I think, the end of COVID has helped people,” Curtis said.

Many buyers, for example, are seeking amenities and entertainment options without having to drive, and are eager to live near their workplaces, Curtis said. Employers asking employees to come back to the office likely created more fertile ground for city homebuying.

And with a flood of support from the governor and real progress on making the city safer, Curtis said more people may finally be adopting a friendlier attitude toward Charm City.

“It could go either way,” Curtis said. “It will be interesting to see if we can make it a real option to choose from as opposed to something you’re sort of stuck with.”

Baltimore Banner reporter Greg Morton contributed to this story.