While a summer surge of COVID-19 cases in Montgomery County is waning, county health officials are bracing for another spike in cases.

“Kids are going back to school. People have returned from their vacations and they’re back in the office. And this is, historically, when respiratory diseases start to creep up,” Sean O’Donnell, the county’s deputy chief for public health services, said Monday.

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, last updated on Sept. 18, wastewater studies show that COVID-19 reached a “very high” level in the county. Anne Arundel was the only other Maryland county that reached that level during the same period.

Despite these numbers, county data indicates that infections appear to be on the decline.

Across the country, a new variant known as XFG dominated infections between June and September, according to CDC data. According to state data, the positivity rate for PCR tests for COVID-19 in the county peaked near 20% at the beginning of August, and has decreased to nearly 11.5% as of Monday.

As of Tuesday, 23 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 in Montgomery County, according to county data. That’s a considerably lower caseload than in mid-August, when county hospitals were treating an average of 35 COVID-19 patients at a time.

On guard

While this summer’s variant may be on its way out, local health officials still worry.

“Probably everybody has somebody they know right now with COVID,” Dr. Kisha Davis, the county’s health officer, said during a Sept. 17 media briefing.

Davis said the latest vaccines, equipped to combat the new XFG variant, were not released to the public until after the first wave of new infections started.

There’s also no way to perfectly capture the number of COVID-19 cases in the county, which is why wastewater data is an important tool, O’Donnell said. Much like the flu and other common respiratory infections, COVID-19 may cause minor symptoms. Often it’s only people who need medical attention whose cases get reported.

O’Donnell said how the county copes in future with COVID-19 could depend in great part on herd immunity.

He hopes herd immunity grows each year and that strains of the virus become less virulent. “But we can’t say for certain that will always happen,” he said.

Viruses like the one that causes flu go through years of strong strains and years of weak, less infectious strains, and this is how COVID-19 could evolve, he said.

In the meantime, local health officials agreed that the best way to combat the virus is to keep up-to-date on vaccinations, as new versions are created to be more effective against new variants.

“Now is a good time to get the vaccine,” Davis said. She noted it’s relatively easy to access in Maryland. “The biggest issue we have is people from D.C. and Virginia coming here to take up slots.”

While Trump administration directives have led to confusion about whether states can provide COVID-19 vaccinations, Gov. Wes Moore issued a statement earlier this month vowing to protect vaccine access for Marylanders.

“We will do everything in our power to ensure they have access to life-saving medicines like vaccines,” Moore said.

State law requires that anyone over the age of 3 has access to flu and COVID-19 vaccines without a prescription.

Davis advised those who have recently contracted COVID-19 to wait four to six months after their infection date before receiving the new vaccine, in order to maximize its effectiveness.