The Maryland state government’s budget problem was already bad and it got a little worse on Tuesday, with analysts now predicting a nearly $3 billion shortfall.
That’s the gap between how much money is coming into state accounts and how much is planned to be spent, on programs ranging from providing health insurance for the poor to supporting public schools to policing the state’s highways.
The shortfall is the worst that the state has seen in two decades, David Romans, the legislature’s top nonpartisan fiscal adviser, told a group of lawmakers on Tuesday. He cautioned them to be mindful and work to limit spending while keeping savings accounts full.
Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike responded, through public meetings and press conferences, with warnings of tough decisions ahead and vague ideas about how to close the gap. Here’s what we learned — and what we didn’t learn — from an afternoon of money talk in Annapolis.
Why did the deficit grow?
Just last week, the state’s economic experts weighed in with an updated forecast of how much money is expected to go to the state’s general fund, which makes up about 40% of the state’s budget. Over the current budget year and the next, they bumped up their estimate by about $260 million — not enough to make a dent in the gap, which was estimated at $2.7 billion for next year.
Lawmakers got some additional information Tuesday at a meeting of their Spending Affordability Committee, which, as the name implies, sets recommendations for how much money the state can afford to spend.
There were a few tweaks upward and downward on both the income side of the budget and the spending side. But the biggest change was that the Department of Health needs $350 million more per year to cover costs of its Developmental Disabilities Administration.
The department had been underestimating the costs of providing services to clients in those programs, and now needs $350 million more each year. Romans called the inaccurate estimates “a pretty staggering miss” and encouraged lawmakers to hold hearings to investigate.
A spokesperson for the health department did not respond to questions about the inaccurate estimates.
That need to spend $350 million per year, coupled with other adjustments, is pushing the projected deficit to $2.95 billion.
The overall state budget is about $64 billion.
How does the state close the deficit?
Each year, the state is required to have a balanced budget.
Just like a household or business budget, Gov. Wes Moore and lawmakers have a few options: raise more money, spend less money, or a combination of the two.
No one who has a vote on the budget has yet to propose a comprehensive solution.
The only hints that the Democratic governor has given ahead of his budget unveiling in January is that he has a “high bar” for raising taxes, and that he wants to make some changes to the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future, the state’s ambitious and expensive public education plan.
What do Democrats want to do?
Del. Ben Barnes, who chairs the House of Delegates Appropriations Committee, said during the spending affordability meeting that he has a “high bar” for any rollbacks to the Blueprint.
Investing in students, teachers and schools “will lead to better results and outcomes,” the Prince George’s County Democrat said. “It would be a shame to roll these back just three years in.”
Senate President Bill Ferguson, meanwhile, noted during a press conference that the state’s spending is driven by higher costs for important programs like Medicaid health insurance, child care scholarships, supporting people with developmental disabilities and providing health care to people who are incarcerated.
The state can’t just cut or end those programs, which help vulnerable people. “We’re not throwing people off Medicaid,” said Ferguson, a Baltimore Democrat. Instead, Maryland will have to find cuts in other places.
Ferguson, who also has echoed the “high bar” language around taxes, was asked if that bar is being met.
“I think we’ll know more in January. ... Looking in a crystal ball, Maryland has a really, really tough moment ahead,” Ferguson said. He added that officials will need to make “strategic choices.”
Some ideas to raise money that have been floated — but were not discussed Tuesday — include enacting corporate tax reforms, increasing taxes on high earners, expanding the sales tax to cover services and legalizing online gambling.
What are the Republican ideas?
Democrats hold nearly three-quarters of seats in the legislature and can easily outvote Republicans. But Republicans still have a voice and will attempt to influence the budget discussion.
During an online press conference with reporters, Republican leaders charged that the state’s budget has grown much faster than the economy has, leading to an unsustainable situation. They cautioned against tax hikes, saying they’d be counterproductive and would drive away businesses and residents.
“Maryland’s fiscal ship is much like the Titanic, headed for the iceberg,” said Del. Jason Buckel, an Allegany County Republican who is the House minority leader. Buckel pressed for the governor to start sharing his budget plans sooner rather than later.
Buckel and other Republican leaders suggested cuts, including: eliminating the Blueprint’s plans for prekindergarten for 3-year-olds; rolling back the allowed out-of-classroom time for teachers to do planning and development; slowing down the rollout of other parts of the Blueprint; making “across the board” cuts in state agencies; limiting state employee pay raises; and enacting unspecified policies to spur economic growth.
The Republicans said they wouldn’t support layoffs or furloughs of state workers to save money.
Sen. Justin Ready, a Carroll County Republican who is the Senate minority whip, said the state can fix its problems with commonsense practices and restraining growth of government spending. The budget deficit, he said, “is an entirely self-inflicted wound.”
When will this all get sorted out?
Expect plenty more discussion from politicians in the weeks and months ahead. Moore submits his proposed budget to lawmakers by Jan. 15. Then they’ll spend much of their session picking apart and reviewing the budget, making their own changes, before sending it back to the governor.
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