For the first time in a couple years, an update about the state’s financial footing wasn’t dire.

The state is slightly behind expectations for the current budget year but can expect revenues to grow slightly for next year, according to the latest round of financial forecasting.

But news delivered by the Maryland Board of Revenue Estimates on Thursday comes amid great uncertainty driven by the federal government — including financially damaging budget decisions and a potential shutdown looming next week.

“This actually feels like a big win for us,” said Comptroller Brooke Lierman, a Democrat and member of the board.

If not for the recent federal tax cut and policy bill known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Lierman said, the state would have expected additional money to come into its coffers. But the act, dubbed OB3, delivers tax breaks to corporations and others who will now pay less money to the state.

Instead, the state is forecasted to take in about $19 million less than expected for the roughly $26.6 billion general fund, a relatively modest gap that could be managed without the need for more tax hikes.

And for the next budget year, the general fund is expected to grow by a few hundred million dollars, to $27.1 billion.

Even so, the state’s top financial managers warned that perilous times could lie ahead.

For starters, the federal government could shut down as soon as Wednesday, as Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill are locked in partisan budget battles. That could leave federal employees out of work or stuck working without pay, along with money being stalled for federally funded projects.

And soon, federal employees who took the so-called “fork in the road” deferred resignation option will end their work. The state does not yet have an estimate of how many employees are affected.

This is all on top of the financial fallout of increased tariffs and changes to immigration policies and benefits programs, like Medicaid and food stamps.

“It goes without saying: These are incredibly uncertain times for Marylanders who rely on federal employment and who rely on federal benefits, as well as for our broader state economy and state budget,” Helene Grady, Gov. Wes Moore’s budget secretary and another revenue board member, said Thursday.

Grady praised the governor and state lawmakers for passing a state budget that leaves plenty of cash in savings, “which positions the state well to navigate the uncertainty that we’re describing for the months ahead.”

That budget deal included a difficult and unpopular combination of spending cuts and $1.6 billion in increased taxes and fees to close a budget gap that topped $3 billion. High earners are paying more in income taxes, a new tax was enacted on information technology and data services, and taxes were increased on cannabis sales, among other revenue generators in the budget.

Treasurer Dereck Davis credited those budget decisions for keeping the state’s finances sound.

“Those are not easy decisions to make,” the Democrat said. “No one wants to raise taxes.”

Republican lawmakers who voted against the budget deal remained unimpressed.

“Our state’s fiscal picture looks ‘OK’ right now for one simple reason — Democrats in Annapolis raised taxes and fees on hardworking families and small businesses in the last legislative session,” state Sen. Stephen Hershey, a top-ranking Republican leader and potential gubernatorial candidate, wrote in a statement.

“We cannot tax and fee our way to prosperity,” state Sen. Justin Ready, the No. 2 Republican, wrote in a statement. “What we need are policies that actually grow the economy, encourage job creation, and keep Maryland families here.”

House of Delegates Speaker Adrienne A. Jones, a Baltimore County Democrat, expressed optimism amid uncertainty.

“I know [President Donald] Trump’s attacks are far from over,” she wrote in a statement, “but Maryland’s strength comes from our fiscal stability and our values. I am confident we will be able to weather future fiscal storms in a responsible way.”