Right now, interest in Maryland’s 2026 gubernatorial race focuses on two men, one of whom may not even be a candidate: Gov. Wes Moore and former Gov. Larry Hogan.

Both men have thrown fuel on the speculative fire. Moore, a Democrat in his first term, mentions Larry Hogan’s name when discussing theoretical Republican opponents. Hogan, who served two terms as governor, has dropped social media hints suggesting that he is weighing another campaign.

Only Hogan really knows what he wants to do next year, but The Banner commissioned a statewide poll on a possible matchup between the two.

In a survey of more than 900 registered voters, 45% said they would vote for Moore, while 37% said they would vote for Hogan. Another 14% said they were undecided. The poll was conducted by phone and web between Oct. 7 and Oct. 10 and has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

So there it is. In the early stages of this hypothetical horse race, Moore leads Hogan by 8 points. That deficit came as a surprise to Todd Eberly, professor of political science and public policy at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, who said neither side should feel overly great about their standing.

“For Hogan to be at 37%, he won reelection somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 points … that’s not a great number," Eberly said. “Moore’s number in the head-to-head isn’t fantastic, either.”

Hogan, through a spokesperson, declined to comment on the polling figures. Moore’s campaign responded with another attack on Hogan’s record while touting their own.

“No matter who runs as the Republican in this race it won’t change the fact that Governor Moore created more jobs in two years than the previous administration created in eight, made our communities safer with record funding for local law enforcement, and cut the teacher vacancy rate by 25% leading to improvements in reading and math scores in nearly every single grade across the state,” campaign spokesperson Carter Elliott IV wrote in an email.

It’s fair to wonder whether Hogan is being dragged down by the Republican Party brand, especially now given the partisan atmosphere of Donald Trump’s second term, when he’s made deep cuts to the federal workforce and threatened Democratic-controlled states and cities.

Democrat Angela Alsobrooks walloped Hogan in the 2024 U.S. Senate race in which concerns about access to abortion and Trump’s potential return to the White House were top of mind for Maryland voters. Hogan’s hand-picked successor, Kelly Schulz, lost badly to Trump-endorsed Dan Cox in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, only for Cox to get blown out by Moore.

While Hogan remains generally popular — he posted a poll from a Republican-leaning firm on social media in August that found he had a 75% approval rating for his performance as governor — another election loss would be tough to stomach.

“I think the last thing he would be interested in doing is running for governor and losing,” Eberly said of Hogan, who will turn 70 next year.

If Hogan’s name is taken out of the mix and voters are asked to choose between Moore and an unnamed Republican gubernatorial candidate, Moore’s support among poll respondents is mostly unchanged, moving to 47%.

But the share of respondents supporting the unnamed Republican falls to 29% and the share of undecided voters jumps to 21%.

Some Republicans want new blood, even if it’s difficult to imagine who that candidate might be.

“I would prefer somebody else,” said Kandy Portell, a Wicomico County resident and registered Republican.

That somebody should have “good Christian values,” be “against abortion” and “support the family as far as man and wife being married,” Portell, 51, said, before adding that she would still vote for Hogan over Moore.

It’s not just Republicans who want to see a new name on the ballot next year. Of all poll respondents, 36% said they would prefer to vote for someone other than Moore, whereas 38% said they would vote to reelect. Of Democrats polled, 20% expressed desire for a different choice on the ballot. That figure grew to 40% for unaffiliated voters.

“I have nothing personal against him — it just kind of seems like he’s not making much progress,” Barry Harris, 30, an unaffiliated voter in Baltimore, said of Moore.

Voters are mostly split on Moore’s job performance, and few could name a singular accomplishment of his tenure so far. More people disapprove of his handling of economic issues — utility bills, taxes, housing costs — than approve, according to the poll. Marylanders are overwhelmingly economically anxious — four in five say they’re worried about money.

Those anxieties, coupled with Moore’s somewhat tepid support, could open the door for a challenger to come forward and hammer these topics, said Steve Raabe of OpinionWorks, who conducted this statewide poll for The Banner.

That doesn’t mean an opponent would win, though. When you filter down to respondents who said they were almost certainly going to cast a ballot next year, Moore’s support is solid, and his lead in a hypothetical Hogan matchup increases to 14 points. Add the general Democratic anger around Trump in the state and it seems very likely that Moore will win reelection, Raabe said.

“We’ve got a history in our state of Democrats splitting their tickets, so they would be quite happy to do that if the right Republican came along,” he said. “But right now, there isn’t any sign of that going on.”

The Republicans who have thrown their names in the ring (party-switching Ed Hale Sr.), or have said they’re considering doing so (state Sen. Steve Hershey) don’t move the needle, and some voters have clocked that.

Take Charles Broida, an 80-year-old retired attorney in Montgomery County. The Democrat said he once voted for Hogan in a past governor’s race, but doesn’t see himself voting for anyone other than Moore next year.

“I don’t understand all the hullabaloo Wes Moore is getting in the media for being a presidential candidate. … I just don’t see it," Broida said. “But I would vote for him [for governor].”

Correction: This article has been updated to correct the spelling of Kelly Schulz' name.