Maryland Gov. Wes Moore enters 2025 in an unenviable position: He’s staring down a multi-billion-dollar budget deficit, has an ambitious public education plan to pay for and does not yet know what a second Donald Trump presidency will mean for the state.

This trifecta of tests presents challenges for the Democratic governor, who will have to make tough governing decisions as he eyes re-election in 2026 and a potential national political future.

“No matter what, every action he takes at this point — it has to be geared toward re-election in 2026,” said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland.

Eberly, who teaches a course on Maryland politics, said the next two legislative sessions are critical to Moore’s short- and long-term political future.

“Unfortunately for him, he’s being faced with a political and budget reality that’s going to make that future much more challenging,” Eberly said.

Moore has yet to reveal much about how he plans to navigate the increasingly rough political seas. The governor’s office declined an interview request.

During a speech earlier in December, Moore made reference to storms gathering around Maryland. He clearly stated the problem ahead: A structural budget gap at a time when the state can’t depend on the federal government for help.

“I know these storms are daunting,” Moore told county leaders. “But in Maryland, we don’t run from the big challenges. We run toward them — and we come up with solutions together.”

Invoking the Navy rallying cry “Don’t Give Up The Ship,” Moore warned of tough decisions ahead. He suggested that the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future, a signature education improvement plan that’s straining the state’s long-term budget, may need some reworking. But he’s only offered one specific proposal, to pause a program to give teachers more out-of-class planning and development time.

Changes to the Blueprint alone won’t be enough to close the state’s budget gap, which is projected to be nearly $3 billion for the next budget year. It would balloon further in future years if left unaddressed.

Moore and state lawmakers are expected to spend the next three months focused on working their way out of the budget jam, whether by raising more money, spending less or some combination of the two. Any solution is likely to be painful.

The picture will become clearer by Jan. 15, when Moore is required to submit his proposed spending plan to lawmakers.

If raising taxes or fees is part of the solution, political wisdom says 2025 is the year to do it. In 2026, the governor and all 188 members of the Maryland General Assembly will be up for re-election. And no politician wants to face voters immediately after raising taxes.

Whoever Moore’s 2026 Republican opponent is, they surely will campaign heavily against any new or increased taxes. That’s even more likely to be the case if former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan attempts to return, as some have speculated.

Hogan won his first term in 2014 largely on a message that Democrats had over-taxed and over-burdened Marylanders. He was re-elected in 2018 and exited office in early 2023 leaving behind a budget cushion, thanks largely to federal largesse during the coronavirus pandemic and leaving state government positions unfilled.

“It could not play more into Larry Hogan’s hands if they had scripted it,” said Eberly of St. Mary’s College.

Rougher political seas

The challenges ahead represent a changing scenario for Moore, a first-time politician who’s had relatively smooth political seas so far.

After winning a tough Democratic primary in 2022, he coasted to an easy victory in the general election.

In his first two years, modest budget gaps were closed without much pain or drama, and Moore landed most of the priorities on his legislative agenda, including creating a paid service program for young people, plowing more money into impoverished neighborhoods and updating housing laws.

After Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed in a shipping accident last March, Moore was lauded for his steady leadership.

He can claim 2024′s election year as a win after enthusiastically backing Angela Alsobrooks, who won a seat in the U.S. Senate. He also campaigned for Democrat April McClain Delaney, who won a competitive U.S. House of Representatives seat.

He also raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Democrats and stumped for President Joe Biden, and later Vice President Kamala Harris, during the presidential campaign, focusing on young, Black voters.

And while Maryland is likely to lose the NFL’s Washington Commanders to D.C., the state is gaining an Air National Guard unit.

Moore’s political losses so far have been minor: Lawmakers agreed to boost the minimum wage, but didn’t agree with his proposal to make future increases automatic and tied to inflation. There was a brief tussle over funding for a program that pays private school tuition for some students. And legislators watered down some of his bills.

The governor has shown signs that he may be interested in taking bigger, riskier swings with his policy ideas. Last month, he announced support for allowing grocery stores to sell beer and wine, a popular consumer issue that’s been turned down repeatedly by the General Assembly due to liquor stores’ opposition.

He’s also strengthened his messaging on the state’s lagging economy, growing insistent that bold action is needed to boost business investment.

And with the House of Delegates and state Senate sometimes at odds in recent years over budget issues, Moore could be forced to forge compromise — or tell someone no.

Leaning on experience

Moore governs alongside a General Assembly with strong Democratic majorities in both chambers. Lawmakers want Moore to succeed, but they’re not a rubber stamp and have their own ideas about how to solve the state’s problems.

As Moore navigates his relationship with legislative leaders, he’s got some help: He recruited Jeremy Baker, who had been House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones’ chief of staff, to head up his legislative office. Baker is a State House veteran under two different speakers, and deeply understands not only policy and process, but what motivates all 141 state delegates in the House.

The prior leader of Moore’s legislative office, Eric Leutdke, a former Democratic majority leader in the House, remains as a senior policy adviser to the governor.

While Moore faces peril this year between budget woes and the Trump factor, it also presents opportunity. The third year of Moore’s term is perhaps his last best shot to enact big policy changes before re-election.

Moore has yet to hint whether he’ll be more ambitious than attempting to resolve the budget shortfall and taking steps to grow the state’s economy.

Jones said she and Senate President Bill Ferguson have regular conversations with the governor to “make sure the left hand knows what the right hand’s doing.” Jones said she appreciates having open that communication, but, as of Thursday, she didn’t have insight on Moore’s priorities for the year.

Moore’s efforts at closing the budget gap and making his mark in Maryland will be bolstered by his first two years in office and his dogged work on the campaign trail, said Ken Ulman, a former Howard County executive who chairs Maryland’s Democratic Party.

Making tough choices on raising money or reining in spending might have been harder in Moore’s first or second year, Ulman said. After all, he was a newcomer to elected politics and voters may have felt “they were taking a chance” on him. Now they know the governor, Ulman said.

“When you ask folks to make some sacrifices and you have a track record, and folks feel like they know you, sometimes they give you the benefit of the doubt if they believe you’re in it for the right reasons and working hard — and that’s what he has demonstrated,” Ulman said.

While Ulman acknowledges Moore may have some thoughts about 2026 or beyond, he believes the governor is laser-focused on the challenges facing him.

“I used to say: If you do a good job at the job at hand, then things in the future will take care of themselves,” Ulman said.

Del. Jason Buckel, the Republican leader in the House of Delegates, said he believes Moore recognizes the “massive role and responsibility” he has in solving the budget woes and setting the state on a stronger economic course.

“He can walk and chew gum at the same time, and maintain a national profile while focusing on being governor,” Buckel said.