For much of the week following the May 3 Kentucky Derby, it appeared that Saturday’s 150th running of the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes would be one of its blander renewals.
It seemed Pimlico would end not with a bang but a whimper.
But, following last-minute maneuvering, the shine’s back on the middle jewel. There’s no Derby winner, that’s true, but we will see Journalism, the runner-up as the favorite in Louisville; and the popular, late-running Sandman, who was the second choice in the wagering that day and came in seventh.
Another Derby starter headed to Baltimore has a local connection. American Promise, winner of the March 15 Virginia Derby for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, will be piloted once again by Maryland native Nik Juarez. After a middle move to nearly even terms with the leaders in the Kentucky Derby, he faded to 16th of 19.
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Speaking of local interest, Pay Billy, stabled at Laurel Park most of his career, earned his way into Preakness with a win in Laurel’s Federico Tesio Stakes. The Improbable colt trained by Michael Gorham carries the hopes of some first-time owners, a congenial running style and an enticing 20-1 morning line.
Farther afield — much farther afield — is Heart of Honor. An Honor A. P. colt, he was bred in Great Britain. But, after a single start in his home country, he decamped to the United Arab Emirates, where he’s run five times since, including an achingly close near-miss second in the UAE Derby, a key Kentucky Derby prep.
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Trainer Bob Baffert, the all-time Preakness winner with eight in his collection, is slated to send out the lightly raced Goal Oriented, who’s 2-for-2 in his career. He won an allowance contest on the Kentucky Derby undercard but gets a major class test here.
Trainer Todd Pletcher, a Hall of Famer who owns eight Eclipse Awards, four Belmont Stakes wins and two Kentucky Derby triumphs, will try to fill perhaps the most glaring hole in his otherwise impeccable resume by getting his first Preakness win. His River Thames ran second in the Fountain of Youth and third in the Blue Grass, two key Derby preps, and Pletcher decided to pass on the Run for the Roses to await this spot.
The horse who narrowly beat him in the Fountain of Youth — Sovereignty — reigned supreme in Louisville, burnishing this one’s CV.
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Another Hall of Famer, Steve Asmussen, goes hunting his third Preakness triumph with Clever Again. The lightly raced son of 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah has won two of three and tuned up for Saturday with a four-length win in the Hot Springs Stakes.
Finally, on the far outside is Lexington Stakes winner Gosger. The speed figures say he’s not fast enough, but 3-year-olds can improve quickly, something trainer Brendan Walsh is banking on.

When the gates open at just about 7 p.m. Saturday, look for Goal Oriented, breaking from the rail under Flavien Prat, American Promise and Clever Again to be the early vanguard. That there are three early speed types reduces the likelihood that any of them will sneak away and steal it up front.
That also likely advantages horses with tactical ability such as Pay Billy, River Thames and Gosger. Journalism and Heart of Honor might be with this trio or just behind them, while Sandman will be farther away yet.
Journalism is the most likely winner: the most accomplished horse possessing the highest speed figures and with enough tactical ability to work out a good trip. He will need to be on at least your exotics tickets; the question will be whether he offers value in the win pool.
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The horse perhaps more likely to offer value to win is River Thames. Pletcher typically likes his horses to have five or six weeks between starts. Thus, he usually passes on Preakness with Derby-type horses; when he has run in both, as with his Derby winners Super Saver and Always Dreaming, they have not run well. Both of those runners finished eighth in Baltimore.
This time, though, despite having enough points to run in the Derby, Pletcher awaited Preakness. The time between races — his last start, in the Blue Grass, was April 8 — is ideal, his running style fits perfectly, and he’s just a length, spread between two races, from being undefeated.
Look for River Thames to be a major player at an enticing morning line of 9-2.
If any of the three speed horses hangs around to the end, it could well be Clever Again (5-1). His two starts as a 3-year-old have been excellent, and horses with a similar profile — a bit late starting, lightly raced types who mostly missed the rigors of Kentucky Derby prep season — have done well in Preakness in recent years.
What of Sandman? As a betting matter, he figures to take plenty of action, which isn’t ideal for a runner as dependent on a fast pace up front and a clean trip as he is. It would be no surprise to see him rallying late for a minor award, but at likely short odds, we’ll pass on him in the win spot.
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Looking for a horse to blow up the tote board? Pay Billy arrives with plenty of confidence, with four wins in five starts and the added benefit of racing close to home, where he can maintain his usual routine. He may simply not be good enough, but if he runs his race, he should be in a perfect spot with 5/16 of a mile left to run. Then he’ll be tested for class.
With value in mind, call it:
- No. 6 River Thames
- No. 8 Clever Again
- No. 2 Journalism
- No. 5 Pay Billy
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