There’s obviously nothing bad about Kyle Bradish returning to the mound tonight. It’s an objectively good thing for him, the Orioles and everyone who likes to watch good pitching.

But provided he gets through tonight and this season healthy, avoiding any kinds of John Means-like recurrences of his elbow injury, what stands out to me is just how little downside there is baked into this situation.

If Bradish is on the mound, the overwhelming evidence is that he’s going to be good. And if he’s not, unless we’re talking about a demonstrably different pitcher than the one we last saw, it would take a disastrous September to not slot him into one of the top two slots of the rotation come the beginning of next season.

You’ll remember that before he walked off the mound for the last time in June against the Phillies, he was arguably at his best — striking out 12.1 batters per nine with a 2.75 ERA, a 2.50 FIP and a 1.07 WHIP in eight starts. That was better in many ways than the 2023 season in which over 30 starts he had a 2.83 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and a 1.04 WHIP with 8.96 strikeouts per nine — all of which placed him fourth in the AL Cy Young Award voting.

And after he returned from a shoulder injury in 2022 — before which he had a 7.38 ERA —Bradish finished the season with a 3.28 ERA in 13 starts to set the stage for the 2023 breakout that was coming.

After his first 10 career starts, when Bradish made some changes to his approach to pitching and refocused on his routine, he’s pitched to a 2.93 ERA with a 3.28 FIP and a 1.08 WHIP. Bradish has pitched 279 1/3 innings since he returned from the injured list for that shoulder soreness on July 29, 2022. Of the 144 pitchers with at least 250 innings over that three-plus-year span, Bradish ranks 10th in ERA, 20th in FIP, and 14th in WHIP.

That’s the kind of pitcher the Orioles are getting back. It’s tricky to expect Bradish to be all that immediately after such a long layoff and such an arduous rehab process. It’s probably unfair to think he will be, but I remember sitting in Bowie last year watching him pitch after his platelet-rich plasma injection and marveling at how he was the same guy even then.

One of the things Bradish pointed to in his 2023 breakout was having both conviction in his stuff and an understanding of where it was on a given day; essentially, he was going to pitch with what he had rather than what he felt like his arsenal should be like.

I’ve gathered that his stuff is where it was before his surgery, and he fared well on his climb through the minors. I expect that to continue right as he left off, and honestly, it’s OK to me if he doesn’t. The Orioles shouldn’t change their offseason pitching plans one bit depending on Bradish’s form; another injury would obviously be a different story.

But it’s beside the point to say that if he is back demonstrating top-of-the-rotation capabilities then they can cross a starter that fits that mold off their shopping list. They saw what making the value play did this year and should be in that market regardless of Bradish’s September. Similarly, if he isn’t himself, you bet on the player that he will be and get yourself insurance no matter what happens.

An added bonus is instead of searching for meaning in these half-dozen or so starts he’ll get before the season ends, I’ll get to — beginning tonight — just enjoy the fact that he’s back in the mix. I recommend many do the same.

On the pod

Paul is in Paris, so we haven’t had a chance to talk through Samuel Basallo’s contract extension (which regular listeners will remember me speculating could happen before the trade deadline). We did, however, double up last week to discuss Félix Bautista’s future after the announcement of his shoulder surgery.

Ballpark chatter

“He’s hung in there through a lot of injuries and time off the field this year, and he’s struggled and he’s been disappointed in himself. It feels like he’s coming out on the other end at the moment.” — Interim manager Tony Mansolino on Colton Cowser

I think we’ve seen spurts of the real Cowser this year, and we’re in one right now. I also think there’s fair reason to be concerned about some aspects of his performance when he’s been healthy.

Overall, though, it seems like it could be risky business to write him off, and I’m not going to pick him as my 2026 Most Valuable Oriole selection, as I did for him this spring, but I’m not giving up, either.

By the numbers

.485

This piece in the Athletic on how many dominant left-handed pitchers there are across the game right now was great and drove home a key point about the Orioles’ season. They’ve had 11 games against opposing All-Star lefty starters — including seven in their first 32 games — and are batting .196 with a .485 OPS against them in 258 plate appearances. That’s worse than the rest of the league, which has a .220 average and .630 OPS against All-Star lefty starters. They’re All-Stars for a reason. They just were harder on the Orioles than the rest of the league.

Talent Pipeline

Jud Fabian

We might see Chayce McDermott in the bullpen at some point down the stretch, but if you’re looking for other prospects who can join the Orioles with Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers already in Baltimore, it probably comes down to outfielder Jud Fabian.

He’s back from a wrist issue but hasn’t regained his form offensively yet. Before the late-June injury, he had a .773 OPS with a dozen home runs while striking out at a 28.2% clip. He’s cut down somewhat on the strikeouts since his return but has just a .623 OPS in 23 games. Given Fabian is Rule 5-eligible this year, it feels like he should maybe be in the mix once he’s back in form. They could also, at this point, punt his roster fate until the fall.

For further reading

📊 Basallo’s future: This breakdown of the Basallo extension has some forecasts that show it’s fair value based on what he could do at both catcher and first base.

🧢 The scout who found him: Another good piece of Basallo content came from Danielle on how the Orioles scouted and stuck with Basallo. Koby Pérez has put together a good team of scouts, and Gerardo Cabrera, whose list of other big leaguers includes the Mets’ Francisco Rodriguez and Ronny Mauricio, is one of them.

😡 Cade Povich’s wife targeted: What’s unfortunate about the threat to Cade Povich’s wife, which prompted this story by Andy, is that only a small handful of such messages are ever outed. I can’t imagine how much of this type of abuse athletes and their families deal with, nor why anyone would behave like this. Andy did well to give a glimpse into its impact.