Trevor Rogers and Samuel Basallo.

Andy’s story from Monday’s game in Boston set the stage for how well things went for the Orioles’ battery, and the combination of the two has occupied my thoughts for much of the time since.

They are a Rorschach test of sorts as we look at both the Orioles’ present and future, what has been and could still be, and in their own ways represent the push and pull this front office is going to face going forward

Take Rogers, to start. A year ago, he looked like a lost cause after being traded from the Miami Marlins and was unable to find any form at Triple-A Norfolk. After an offseason of strengthening his lower half and using it more in his delivery, he recovered from an early-season injury to be among the best pitchers in baseball this year. On current form, few are better.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that this is who Rogers is now. He may not be this dominant forever, but the bad version of him feels like it’s gone. We can say that because we understand the physical issues that caused his stuff and performance to diminish over the years, and those are now behind him.

And still, the Rogers that’s flourishing is never going to be completely separated from the one who arrived here. That means we’ll always wonder if a reversion is coming and lament the lost time when he wasn’t this version of himself over the next year-plus before he reaches free agency.

Or will he? What started out as a podcast joke a couple months ago — that he, of all people, would be the long-term contract extension fans are clamoring for — feels like it might be a more serious idea worth exploring. It feels doable, even if this version of Rogers would probably warrant quite a free agent contract on the open market.

The Orioles can pay him more than he’ll get in arbitration. Even a meaningful raise from the $2.6 million he’s making this year will make him underpaid in 2026. He can also manage risk, given his health and the potential his performance will regress, by locking in something now. I understand why he wouldn’t, but there’s also a world where he and the Orioles align on something.

I’ve also wondered if Basallo might be the homegrown Oriole to finally lock in long-term with a contract here. He signed for $1.3 million as an amateur, which helps reduce that urgency, and by virtue of debuting just after he turned 21, Basallo could make unspeakable amounts of money if he reaches his considerably high ceiling by the time he becomes a free agent at 28.

But he could make more in the near-term if he lets the Orioles buy out some of those free agent years now, and they should have every incentive to ensure Basallo is here for as long as possible, because there’s no denying how special he can be.

Just a couple of major league games have demonstrated both the contact ability and hard contact ability he has. Given his inexperience and age, all of that is going to be challenged, probably soon. But the result is going to be, in many iterations of Basallo’s future, an elite, middle-of-the-order major league slugger.

So, what’s the problem? There’s not really one with either Rogers or Basallo, other than I guess precedent. Pitching is notoriously fickle. You want to enjoy this dominant spell from an Orioles starter without necessarily counting on it, because he could get hurt, or he could walk in a year. Those are all valid, but don’t really have anything to do with him pitching so well right now.

Same goes for Basallo. There’s the part where we know young players eventually struggle and typically come out of it, but there’s also a high level of conviction in how the Orioles prepare hitters for this point and how they ultimately come out of it as productive major leaguers. And yet, he’s another young player in an increasingly young lineup, and we’ve lived through that for years now: the excitement, the volatility, the potential, the frustration. It’s a lot of pressure on these players, and they all react differently, and all develop at this level at their own pace.

And again, that doesn’t have anything to do with Basallo (or Dylan Beavers for that matter) as an individual. He is incredibly promising, incredibly talented, and will be for a long time. Whether it’s an elite pitcher who is a year away from free agency or a 21-year-old with his whole career ahead of him, there are times to strip all that context away and just enjoy it.

I wish I could have done that last night. But if you’re getting this newsletter, you probably know by now that isn’t exactly my thing.

On the pod

Paul and I talked about the Beavers/Basallo debut weekend, the big week on the mound for Brandon Young and Dean Kremer, and I teased what is going to be a fun Arms on the Farm about Juaron Watts-Brown.

Ballpark chatter

“If we want to force the front office’s hand, or force things to happen in this organization, we’ve got to prove that we’re able to play winning baseball.” — Jordan Westburg after Sunday’s 12-0 win

There was a lot to unpack in what Westburg said Sunday. (The full quote is here.) He’s right about pretty much all of it, especially as he goes on to say they’ve been playing well overall of late.

But I’m not so sure they need to convince anyone of anything or force any hands about this team’s future. It might bolster the conviction level of the front office to fortify the roster if all their homegrown players end the year with representative stat lines or surge through September, but this front office believes in these players a lot — perhaps too much. What happens this winter will be because of that, no matter what.

By the numbers

3.86

Earlier this season, this space featured a note about how badly Dean Kremer typically fares in April and how much of an outlier that is. That continues to age well. He pulled his season ERA down below four with a great outing Sunday and has a 3.16 ERA with a 3.32 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP since May 1. But let’s pull it out further. Over the last four seasons, Kremer, he of the 5.89 ERA before May 1, has a 3.49 ERA and a 3.86 FIP in 480 1/3 innings after May 1. That’s a much better pitcher than anyone gives Kremer credit for being.

Talent pipeline

Luis De León, a 22-year-old left-hander at High-A Aberdeen, has been dominant of late. He pitched five hitless innings with nine strikeouts to combine with Jacob Cravey, Zane Barnhart, and Carter Baumler on a no-hitter Saturday, and since the All-Star break, he has a 1.11 ERA with 33 strikeouts and a 0.90 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings. De León has always boasted electric stuff, with the potential for an at least above-average changeup and slider, but his focus on quality strikes and getting his fastball to its best locations has made him nearly unhittable.

For further reading

😮 So close! There was, well, a lot to write about this weekend in Houston, and Andy did well with it all. I’d particularly commend his story on Brandon Young’s near-perfect outing.

🧢 The odd man out? I’m the Ryan Mountcastle guy in the room, so I was interested to see his take on his current situation. His struggles in the first two months happened and can’t be erased, but it feels like that’s an aberration. We’ll see how these next six weeks unfold.

💬 He said it best: Shoutout to Kyle for his continued commentary on the Orioles’ ticket plan changes.