Every year, it feels like change is looming. And this year, it finally arrived.

This year was my seventh putting together the Orioles’ top prospect list for Baseball America, and it’s had its phases, for sure. The first few years, headlined by the likes of Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle (and Yusniel Díaz), were top-heavy. Then, as the Orioles’ rebuild took hold and I was writing up elite-level, No. 1 overall prospects three years running in Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, with a host of future stars ranked below them, that was even more fun.

But it felt inevitable that, thanks to graduations and trades, there would be a year where the list would be unrecognizable from the year before. We have arrived at that year. The Top 10, which is out now at Baseball America, still has plenty of impact bats at the top, led by Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad. But there are a lot more question marks beyond them. And the broader Top 30, which is still being finalized, is unlike anything I’ve put together before.

Here are the four major takeaways from the project:

Don’t let the lack of a No. 1 prospects fool you.

I don’t have any say in how the overall Top 100 list at Baseball America goes, but it feels safe to say the Orioles’ streak of No. 1 overall prospects is going to end. That’s not to say Basallo or Mayo didn’t have good seasons. Basallo spent almost all of his age-19 season at Double-A — over four years younger than the average age at the level — and had an .820 OPS and 16 home runs with his wRC+ of 133, suggesting he was 33% better than the league’s average. He had his ups and downs but ended up hitting the ball harder more often and learned some valuable lessons.

Mayo, who had a .926 OPS at Triple-A Norfolk despite some challenges in the big leagues, also has nothing to hang his head over. In 2022 and 2023, he was challenged at a level at the end of the season only to come back and dominate it the next year. I believe the same will happen when he next gets a chance in the majors.

Both players are a tick below their predecessors at the top of this list for a handful of reasons, most notably the questions about whether they stick at their respective positions long term or end up at first base. It would have been a testament to the Orioles’ development group if the organization had a fourth straight No. 1 overall prospect. These two are still credits to the operation.

That group of outfielders in the middle is going to be the litmus test for this wave of development.

In Vance Honeycutt, Enrique Bradfield Jr., Dylan Beavers and Jud Fabian, the Orioles have four first-day draft picks with the skills to be difference-makers but various impediments to reaching those ceilings. Honeycutt, this year’s top pick, already has a to-do list this winter on adjustments to make his swing path more consistent and make more frequent contact to get to his considerable raw power.

Bradfield, the top pick from 2023, spent the year improving his line-drive rate, and as he further refined his swing decisions down the stretch in Bowie, he drove the ball more. That’s the name of the game for him — consistent, line-drive contact that allows him to get on base and cause chaos.

Beavers and Fabian are a bit older, finishing the year at Triple-A Norfolk. Beavers hit the ball harder earlier in the season, but he has work to do to tap into his power more consistently. Similarly, Fabian struck out less in Bowie but was challenged in Norfolk. As I’ve written before, these archetypes — contact skills with the need to add thump and thump with the need to make better contact — are the two buckets that recent additions to the farm system fall into. As the Orioles stop picking at the top of the draft, there’s a lot riding on their ability to get the most out of those skill sets and deliver well-rounded hitters to Baltimore.

Michael Forret leads a tremendous wave of homegrown pitching.

Chayce McDermott, acquired in a three-team trade in 2022, is the top pitcher in the org given his high floor and proximity to the majors. Forret being next as a homegrown arm is noteworthy. He wasn’t alone in consideration for that spot, though for all the reasons outlined in this Arms on the Farm installment, he ended up being the second pitcher on the list. Other homegrown arms in consideration for the Top 10 included Nestor German, Trey Gibson, Cameron Weston, Keeler Morfe and Luis De León.

I honestly don’t think I’ve ever written as many interesting pitcher reports in this process as I did this year, and there wasn’t even room in the Top 30 for all the pitchers I wanted to add. Imagine if guys who were traded like Jackson Baumeister, Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace were still around — the inventory of arms would be even deeper. Either way, the pitching department has taken off, and if the number of success stories on this list is any indication, this is only the beginning.

Basallo is going to be replaced by another international signee.

My blind spot in this rankings process is always the complex leagues, particularly the players who sign internationally and take a while to move up through the system. This cohort has been particularly challenged by the lack of short-season ball and the gulf in competition between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Delmarva, so it takes time for talent to show. And besides, it’s a lot easier to take the older, proven talent in the high minors over these faraway teenagers.

It was always clear in prior years that Basallo is different, and this year’s list has me thinking that when he graduates — maybe late next year, maybe in 2026 — there will be another Top 10 prospect in the organization produced through its international signing program. None made the Top 10 this year, but outside of recent draftees, some of the highest-ranked hitters in the organization are now international signees: Leandro Arias, Stiven Martinez, Aron Estrada, Thomas Sosa, Jordan Sanchez and Joshua Liranzo among them. Morfe and De León are the top international arms and have the stuff to take a leap as well.

There’s a mixture of high-floor players and high-ceiling ones. If any of the high-ceiling gambits hit, the Orioles will have yet another star to add to their roster. Basallo was an early success story. The rest are taking an appropriate amount of time, considering these players are signed at 16. Just like the pitching program, though, the results are starting to show.

Free agents to watch

Last week’s player highlighted here, Yusei Kikuchi, agreed to a three-year, $63 million deal with the Angels.

So let’s start a streak of getting players signed, starting with Austin Hays, whom the Orioles dealt to the Phillies in July for right-hander Seranthony Domínguez and outfielder Cristian Pache.

Hays wasn’t tendered a contract by the Phillies and is free to sign anywhere. Baltimore falls into the category of anywhere, and he certainly fits the right-handed hitting outfield profile they’re looking for. I really enjoy Hays as a player. Even with more at-bats potentially available if Anthony Santander doesn’t return, I don’t know that he’d sign up for the small part of a platoon considering Colton Cowser and Kjerstad will get the majority of playing time against righties. And for all his offensive talents, Hays and his 5.7% career walk rate aren’t exactly what the Orioles will be looking for as they try to stabilize the offense.

📫 Have a question? Write to me here.

📰 For further reading

👏 Buck Britton’s promotion: I’m going to use this section to shoot off takes about the last week. Buck Britton being on the major league staff is going to be awesome. He and Robinson Chirinos, combined with the new voices on the hitting side, are going to add some unique new perspectives to the coaching staff, and the Orioles will be better for it. (The Baltimore Banner)

🤝 Jacob Webb: The Orioles squeezed a lot of good innings out of Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb, the latter of whom wasn’t tendered a contract. They also acquired them both when other teams didn’t want them. They’ll be missed, but this team has shown they can find relief talent anywhere. Webb proves it, and that’s how he’ll be replaced. (The Baltimore Banner)

📋 Two more pitchers: After the 2022 season, I had Kade Strowd as a dark horse to be added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. His stuff is really, really good. Inconsistency caused the two-year wait, but he’s worth keeping if he’s made the improvements the club thinks he has. (The Baltimore Banner)