No matter how the first half ended — with a five-game losing streak as part of a minor slide heading into the All-Star break — the reality for the Orioles is positive.
They’re leading the American League East by one game. They hold the second-best record in the American League. They watched as their players took center stage during the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game in Arlington, Texas, this week.
“I would be lying, if you told me in Sarasota, ‘You guys can be in first place on July 13 — take it or leave it,’ we’ll take that,” Mike Elias, Baltimore’s executive vice president and general manager, said last week. “But we’ve got to keep fighting. There’s a lot of season left.”
Of course, it’s not all sunshine and roses in Birdland. The losses of right-handers Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells and left-hander John Means from the starting rotation dented the Orioles’ depth. The bats slumped in early July, and left-hander Danny Coulombe’s absence has been felt in the bullpen.
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As we take stock of the first half — or first 96 games — our Orioles reporters answer pertinent questions.
Which better foretells the Orioles’ second half: The first 2 1/2 months of the season or the last three weeks?
Andy Kostka, Orioles beat writer: Since June 17, the rotation regression has been apparent. Baltimore’s starters hold a 5.60 ERA in that span — which is a sharp departure from the success of that unit earlier in the year. The losses of Means, Bradish and Wells appear to be taking a toll. As such, the last 21 games (during which Baltimore went 9-12) could be a sign of what the second half has to offer. The offense, without any major injuries, should find its groove again. But to restore the rotation — and thus jump-start a run for another AL East championship — a trade or two may well be necessary.
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Danielle Allentuck, Orioles beat writer: Look, I always say it’s better to go through a slump in the middle of the season than when it actually matters down the stretch or in the postseason. It’s true, like my colleagues say, that their pitching injuries are catching up to them, but this stretch was more about their lack of offense than anything else. I think if they can get the bats going again they’ll be just fine.
Paul Mancano: Audience engagement editor: If you want evidence of just how much the Orioles miss their trio of injured starters, look no further than the bullpen. Over the past month, O’s relievers have registered an unsightly 5.52 ERA, fourth worst in baseball. You could certainly point to the loss of reliable lefty Coulombe, but the injuries to Means, Bradish and Wells have caused a domino effect, leaving manager Brandon Hyde with few trustworthy options out of the ’pen. Adding a quality starter at the deadline could ease the burden, but it would behoove Elias to pick up another reliever as well.

Who helps carry the team most in the second half?
Kostka: There may be no more important player than right-hander Grayson Rodriguez down the stretch. Corbin Burnes is the ace everyone expected him to be, but the Orioles need the 24-year-old Rodriguez to hold steady during his first full season in the majors. Rodriguez has done well so far, with a 3.88 ERA, but he will be relied upon in many big games down the stretch.
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Allentuck: Craig Kimbrel. He’s been great for the most part, except for that one stretch earlier this season, and the Orioles, who have a tendency to play a lot of one-run games, are really going to need him to pull through. They don’t exactly have any other choice but to count on him — Coulombe is out until at least September, and Yennier Cano is much better served as an eighth-inning guy.
Mancano: Since the start of the 2021 season, only Aaron Nola has thrown more innings than Burnes. The four-time All-Star is capable of carrying a pitching staff, and the Orioles will need long, productive starts from their ace as they get into August and September.
Will the Orioles capture the AL East?
Kostka: They certainly have a chance. Last year, the Orioles caught up to the Tampa Bay Rays and held them off. This year, they’ve caught up to the New York Yankees and need to hold them off. It will be tight, but with a prudent pitching addition and the resurgence of the order, Baltimore can seal the division.
Allentuck: Before that last stretch, I would have said yes. Now, I’m not as certain. I still think it’s a yes, but I think it is going to come down to the wire.
Mancano: After a lackluster series against the Yankees to close out the first half, the Orioles won’t see them again until Sept. 24, when they begin a three-game set in New York that very well could decide the division. It’s clear the O’s are the deeper team, but the Bronx Bombers still have as much star power as any team in baseball. Ask me again on Sept. 27.
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For the Orioles to acquire a starting pitcher, which high-ranking prospect are you willing to trade?
Kostka: The Orioles’ stacked farm system gives them an advantage over some teams when attempting to swing a deal, but only if Elias is willing to part with talent. To me, the only untouchables should be infielders Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, who are ranked Nos. 1 and 2 in the farm system, per Baseball America. Catcher Samuel Basallo has a bright future but the Orioles have catching depth after the draft, so the No. 3 prospect could be dangled in a trade. Outfielders, such as Heston Kjerstad and Enrique Bradfield, could be moved because the Orioles have a glut of players at that position. Still, there are no easy decisions.
Allentuck: There’s a reason I’m not a general manager, because if I were I’d be willing to trade just about anyone. Obviously, Holliday is off the table. So is probably Mayo. As for Kjerstad, Basallo, Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby, I would part with one or two from that group if, and only if, I got a pitcher with one to two years of additional control. The Orioles have a new billionaire owner. In theory, they can just go out and buy in free agency to fill the hole of whomever they trade.
Mancano: Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad are off the table for me. Losing Basallo would be a gut punch, but given his iffy defense — and the fact that the Orioles just drafted four catchers — I’d consider moving him to acquire a high-level starter with multiple years of team control. The fascinating question for me is if the O’s would be willing to send out any of their top pitching prospects to get a starter. Teams trading arms usually like to get at least one in return, but Baltimore has long-term needs in the rotation. Would Elias really be willing to part with Cade Povich or Chayce McDermott if push came to shove?
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