So, uh, what are we supposed to call this, exactly?

When the team was bad on purpose, as was the case from 2019-2021, it was charitably called rebuilding or, more cynically, tanking. The Orioles were trying to strengthen their farm system and build the infrastructure to compete down the line, and wouldn’t you know, the corresponding reward for not having a team good enough to win on a nightly basis was a higher draft pick. Given how inexpensive a bad roster can be if you really try, that’s what they did.

Then, in 2022, it felt like those days were coming to an end — and they officially did when Adley Rutschman was called up in May — and the team surged through the second half to finish with a winning record. That was their competing phase.

And then things clicked in 2023, and the Orioles played some great baseball, pretty much all year, to win the AL East with 101 wins. This kicked off their contending era, even as they were swept out of the playoffs that year. The next season was much better on paper when they were even hotter, only for injuries and bad luck to cause a second-half collapse and another playoff sweep. But the contending era still applied entering this 2025 season, which I will take the opportunity to skip describing for the sake of my sanity.

I’m a firm believer that the contending era will continue in 2026 — the core is too talented and the opportunities to add to it too obvious for the team to stink again next year. But the massive trade deadline sell-off means we’re in for two months of not contending. Far from it.

But what do we call it? First, let’s describe what we’re seeing. Offensively, the Orioles are top-heavy to say the least. In hockey, there are players known as grocery sticks. The forwards rotate through one side of the bench, and the defensemen cycle out the other door; in between are the players who rarely move and serve to separate the two. Hence, grocery sticks. (I was one.)

Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo effectively serve as grocery sticks for the Orioles’ lineup right now. Anyone before them is a good hitter. Anyone after them is not, and the Orioles’ best chance of scoring is to do so by the time those two come up each time through.

On the mound, the rotation is… fine? Maybe even good. Trevor Rogers continues to be awesome. Tomoyuki Sugano and Cade Povich have stacked a couple of good starts in a row, and overall, the group has kept the Orioles in more games than they’ve lost. But the bullpen is an adventure. We aren’t talking the “get turned around in the woods and have something to laugh about later” kind of adventures, either. They’re currently specializing in the kind where you make one wrong turn and are plummeting off a cliff. The Orioles have lost a handful of games in that fashion and there’s no reason to expect that to change going forward.

A lot of that feels reminiscent of the rebuilding years. The idea of tanking would make a little more sense if there wasn’t a draft lottery. But with the seventh-worst entering Monday, the Orioles will have a high pick regardless.

It still feels like there’s a need for expectations to be recalibrated, because what’s happening now simply isn’t what we’ve come to expect over these last couple of years since the rebuild ended. Those high expectations have been replaced with an Orioles team that’s a source of frustration, bewilderment and disappointment.

So, we had the rebuilding era. We had the two playoff seasons, and now we have an interlude within the contending era. Call it the consequences era — the result of things going as badly as they did, which now everyone must live with. If this August and September stretch isn’t motivation enough to ensure this is just a break from contending and not the end of it, I don’t know what will be.

Ballpark chatter

“Wait, is that Baumler?” — an NL scout in Aberdeen on Tuesday.

As minor league games roll on, focus can wane, both on the field and off. I was sitting behind home plate with a few scouts in Aberdeen on Tuesday when Carter Baumler, the Orioles’ fourth-round pick in 2020 whose career has been derailed by injuries, came in to pitch.

He’s fallen off the map as the years progressed, but that seems like it should change given what we saw. His fastball was in the 96-99 mph range with good plane, and his secondaries were improved as well. It was a short relief outing — that seems to be his role now — but he has a 2.73 ERA with 10.9 strikeouts per nine and a 1.14 WHIP in 26 1/3 innings this year. Worth keeping an eye on now.

By the numbers

135

Adley Rutschman returned from the injured list on July 28 and has been as close to himself as we’ve seen in at least a year. He has a 135 wRC+ (35% above league-average) with an .859 OPS, eight extra-base hits and five walks against just seven strikeouts in 12 games. Sign me up.

Pretty much every member of the Orioles core has an obvious mitigating circumstance (injury, etc.) for why this year hasn’t been up to the high standards they’ve set, except Rutschman, pre-oblique issue. Him performing as everyone has come to expect is going to be a welcome sight down the stretch, should it continue.

Talent pipeline

Trey Gibson

Trey Gibson’s promotion to Triple-A Norfolk this weekend is well deserved as the 23-year-old right-hander has dominated Double-A this year with 11.7 strikeouts per nine and a 1.55 ERA for Chesapeake. Given he started at High-A Aberdeen, he’s also the rare (if unprecedented) three-level starting pitching prospect in the Orioles’ system.

A handful have pitched at three levels for innings coverage this year, but for the Orioles to promote a prospect pitcher twice in one season hasn’t occurred since the pandemic. Gibson’s stuff and execution warrant that, and I bet Nestor German (3.55 ERA, 11.7 strikeouts per nine, 1.07 WHIP in his last five starts) will join in on that exclusive list soon.

For further reading

🤔 Why no call? Good job by Danielle to get Mike Elias to talk about why Dylan Beavers and Samuel Basallo aren’t here yet. It won’t be long, but it’ll still feel overdue when they arrive, and it needed to be addressed.

🎟️ Ticking price changes: Kyle did a really good job capturing the segment of fans disappointed by the Orioles’ ticketing policy change.

🛤️ Road to The Show: Jeremiah Jackson is someone I always heard good things about on my visits to Chesapeake this year, and Andy did well to explain why the long-time minor leaguer finally broke through to the big leagues this summer.