Dylan Beavers is defying a lot of recent Orioles trends by transitioning to the majors as well as he has.

Beavers’ .918 OPS in his first 15 games is the best start to an Orioles career since Gunnar Henderson had a .953 OPS in his first 15 games back in 2022. The list of players who have scuffled since is a long one, featuring Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and so many others.

All of them have had to adjust to how they were being pitched in the majors, with big league fastballs and pitch shapes and locations combining to represent a stark change to what they were seeing at Triple-A Norfolk.

The lack of that feels notable when it comes to Beavers.

It helps that pretty much all he did this year at Norfolk was related to being on time for the fastball. He told me earlier this summer that he went to work in the winter to be able to hit fastballs far better than he did last year, when velocity challenged him. He had to be diligent about not drifting backward as he started his swing, which allowed him to better barrel fastballs and still adjust to off-speed.

He hit .312 with a .462 slugging percentage on four-seamers, two-seamers and cutters at Norfolk and is carrying that to the majors, with a .407 average (and .322 expected average) with a .519 slugging percentage against that pitch group since his promotion.

In an obviously small sample, Beavers leads all major league hitters who have seen at least 200 pitches this season in batting average on heaters. For context, Aaron Judge his hitting .405 with an .862 slugging percentage on fastballs in a sample that’s 10 times larger.

That has allowed Beavers’ elite swing decisions to take hold. He’s holding his own on non-fastballs (though he’s probably going to see more breaking balls going forward), and because Beavers is in a good place with the fastball, he’s been able to translate his approach to this level. When Orioles prospects typically start to scuffle in the majors, they end up in between on their approach and are vulnerable to strikes around the edge of the zone. That puts them in disadvantaged counts and leads to more strikeouts.

This is a tough cycle to get out of, but Beavers hasn’t entered it. He’s chasing just 19% of the time, with the league average at 28.4%, and is also not being overly punished on pitches at the edge of the zone. He’s working good counts and taking his walks, with a 15.8% walk rate after coming in at 16.3% at Norfolk. That’s also distinguished him some; Cowser walked nine times in his first 15 games, too, but had just five hits in that span. No one else in this era has been close to that level.

I’ll caveat this by saying none of this means Beavers will be a better player than any of the ones who came before him. While my work with him over the years has created a high level of conviction in Beavers as a player, the league is going to adjust to him, and then we’ll see how things go. There’s also some overperformance baked in right now relative to Beavers’ expected numbers.

But it’s notable that right as we have conditioned ourselves to see young players struggle to adjust to the majors when the Orioles call them up — and Samuel Basallo is dealing with that concurrently — Beavers has succeeded so much. It’s a blueprint others can follow.

On the pod

Paul is back from Paris and we will be hopping on the podcast this week to talk about everything that’s happened in the last two weeks, including Basallo’s extension, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells’ returns, and more*.

*Paul sets the rundown, so this is just a guess.

Ballpark Chatter

“I look at the guys making the mistakes and it’s guys who are kind of fighting for their careers in a lot of ways, you know? And they’re trying to prove that they’re major league players and they’re not Triple-A guys. So, my emotions go from frustration to more empathetic.”

Interim manager Tony Mansolino on the Orioles’ errors Sunday.

I read this with mixed thoughts, to be honest. Mansolino absolutely has the right perspective here, and it’s a familiar feeling for those who have followed this team for a while.

The early rebuilding era was lousy with instances of this, and a handful of players made it through. All I’ll say is there’s less of an impetus for the Orioles to find good players right now, which means even as these fringe players are trying to prove themselves, it’s hard to reconcile those efforts with the club’s future. They’re set at a lot of spots. So, it’s hard to be as empathetic as Mansolino, as weird as that sounds.

By the numbers

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Kade Strowd has been a success story out of the Orioles bullpen, with a 1.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 17 big league innings. His peripherals are troubling, as he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters and is issuing more walks than you want, but he isn’t giving up a lot of hard or elevated contact. Most notable is that he throws five pitches regularly — a cutter that’s his primary pitch, and a four-seamer, sinker, curveball and sweeper all used between 12-17% of the time. Such a wide arsenal out of the bullpen isn’t normal, but the way the Orioles develop pitchers, it might start being so here.

Talent Pipeline

Enrique Bradfield Jr. will spend the last month of the season at Triple-A Norfolk to end a stop-start summer one step away from the majors.

The 2023 first-round pick has missed time with hamstring issues twice, but ended his Double-A stint with a .779 OPS, thanks to a 15.4% walk rate, and perhaps most importantly, lowered his ground ball rate from 50.2% a year ago to 43.4% across all levels this year. He’s making the quality of contact that the Orioles hope for and could be ready for a test in Baltimore early next year.

Further reading

Brandon Hyde speaks publicly: I can’t imagine what the last few months have been like for Brandon Hyde, who shared a little of his perspective last week on the start to the Orioles season that cost him his job. I’m sure he has plenty more to say, and I’m very interested in hearing it.

Basallo’s extension: Danielle had some good insights on the timing of Basallo’s deal, including the pertinent question of why he didn’t wait. Honestly, I like his answer.