You don’t often get five straight games — and thus a chance to see a team’s entire rotation in order — to kick off the season. Now that we have for the Orioles, it’s hard to say exactly how much we should be putting into what we saw.

The first trip through the Orioles’ rotation is basically whatever you want it to be. The group has a 6.26 ERA with 20 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP in 23 innings, with only Zach Eflin completing six innings. It’s fair to say the rest of the Orioles starters weren’t very economical with their pitches, which at this early stage in the season is going to mean shorter starts as full workloads are built.

It’s whatever you want it to be, though, because based on expected stats in the small sample we’ve seen, the group is much better. The rotation’s 3.30 FIP (fielding-independent pitching approximates ERA based on what a pitcher can control: walks, strikeouts and home runs) and 4.06 xFIP (which normalizes for the league-average home run rate) are much more in line with what would be considered, well, good.

All that said, they seem to be outperforming the contact they’re allowing. Against Orioles starters, opponents are hitting .256 against an expected batting average of .282, slugging .378 against an expected slugging percentage of .464, and producing a .300 weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus a .341 expected weighted on-base average.

The divergence in these expected stats, and how one set tells one story and the other a different one, likely comes down to the amount of hard contact they’re allowing that isn’t leaving the park. They’re giving up hard contact at a 52.8% clip, and again, that’s the type of thing that can happen when you’re pitching to contact.

If the Orioles go 3-2 over every turn through the rotation the rest of the season, they’ll be a really good team. That’s a 97-win pace. They’re going to need a lot from their rotation to get to that point, though, and that puts a fair bit of pressure on the group that’s there now to pitch deep into games and stay healthy for the time being, because there’s not a ton of near-term alternatives.

Albert Suárez’s shoulder issue, with Kyle Gibson still ramping up and all of Grayson Rodriguez, Chayce McDermott and Trevor Rogers on the injured list, means the swingman Cody Poteet —recently acquired in a DFA trade with the Cubs — and rookie Brandon Young are the only rotation options on the 40-man roster at the moment.

That will change in a few weeks’ time when the first wave of reinforcements is available, but let’s call it like it is. Even if you think this rotation is going to hold up well enough for this team to get where it wants to go this season, things feel a little more tenuous than anyone would like right now.

Then again, the White Sox are going to be terrible, and their starters haven’t allowed a run yet this year. One turn through doesn’t meaningfully change what’s going to happen over six months. If the next one is better, though, it would certainly help.

Ballpark chatter

“Everybody in that room knows the risk you take when you go headfirst, but it’s also an instinctual baseball play, and he’s doing everything he can — I thought he was safe, too. He’s trying to beat the guy to the bag and he’s hustling. It’s just kind of a freak, unfortunate thing.”

– manager Brandon Hyde on Colton Cowser fracturing his thumb diving into first base

It was a tough weekend for my Most Valuable Oriole pick, but that’s not important. I think the Orioles are really going to miss Cowser and feel bad for him having to miss time for being hurt this week. Brandon Hyde is right in that there’s a known risk. If he is safe and doesn’t get hurt and it sparks a rally to win the game, we’re having a different conversation right now. In the moment, that’s a risk worth taking. It certainly doesn’t feel like that now, given the in-game and long-term outcomes. It’s just a bummer.

On the farm

Raul Alcantara

There wasn’t much of note from Triple-A Norfolk’s first weekend of games, but it’s a little interesting that lefty Raul Alcantara ended up starting a game, given he’s mostly been a reliever in his minor league career, save for 2023 in High-A.

He was a little wild, by the looks of it, but used his sinker/slider combo to strike out seven (with four walks) in three innings. I don’t know who, but there are going to have to be some unexpected contributors on the mound from Norfolk who end up having moments with the big club this year. He could be one of them.

By the numbers

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Tyler O’Neill has made a fantastic impression on his new club, with a home run and a 1.445 OPS in his first four games.

It should also be noted he’s struck out just once in 17 plate appearances, which after last year’s 33.6% strikeout rate is quite notable. That rate was even higher against righties as O’Neill struggled against same-side pitching, and it’s worth pointing out that he’s been producing this year mostly against righties. Still early, but that’s an encouraging sign for a player who is going to get more playing time with Cowser’s injury.

What I’m reading

🏔️ Meeting ‘The Mountain’: Danielle did a great job telling Felix Bautista’s story ahead of opening day. I commend it to everyone.

🤔 Is it possible? We should all be so lucky as to spend as much time on something and have it turn out as well as Paul’s analysis of hitting the B&O Warehouse did. What a fun project.

🚀 Torpedo bats: I saw first-hand a few years ago some work the Orioles were doing on bat fitting, and it’s been fascinating to see the whole segment of the game explode. I agree with hitting coach Cody Asche that it’s the next frontier for hitting — and yet another reason why being a pitcher is just a tough gig sometimes.