Above all else, the Orioles’ last few seasons have hammered home the idea that high-level starting pitching and an abundance of major league-caliber arms are the separator, with an outsize influence on how the team performs.

And because we know they’re expensive, both in terms of real-life dollars and prospect value in trades, the most effective way to accumulate pitchers is to develop them yourself.

It’s been a long road toward that for the Orioles, but the progress is apparent and approaching Baltimore, both with recent draftees and the fruits of their burgeoning international program.

The first two years of this series highlighted future rotation pieces and eventual trade chips, and gave early breakdowns of the Orioles’ top young pitching prospects. And we’re back for Year 3, using firsthand observation, data analysis and insights from the pitchers and their coaches, along with opinions from professional scouts who cover the Orioles, to provide as much information as possible about these prospects.

We began this year with Trey Gibson, a strikeout artist now at Triple-A Norfolk, and Boston Bateman, a massive lefty who headlined the Orioles’ July deadline acquisitions. Now it’s Juaron Watts-Brown, another potentially important addition from last month’s sell-off.

Where did he come from?

A Hanford, California, native who began his career at Long Beach State — the alma mater of former Orioles manager Brandon Hyde — Watts-Brown pitched one season there as a redshirt freshman in 2022 and transferred to Oklahoma State, where his big strikeout numbers made him the Toronto Blue Jays’ third-round pick in the 2023 draft.

He split his full-season debut between two A-ball levels before reaching Double-A New Hampshire in 2025. The Fisher Cats were in Bowie facing Chesapeake when Watts-Brown was acquired for Seranthony Domínguez in a trade last month, and he came from the other clubhouse to join his new team during pregame work.

What do the numbers say?

Most striking about Watts-Brown are his strikeout numbers, which have been consistently high throughout his pro career. He struck out 11.45 batters per nine in 2024 and is at 11.62 this season. With Toronto, he struck out an eye-popping 14.95 per nine at High-A Vancouver in 37 1/3 innings before his promotion and that fell to 9.23 with New Hampshire, but that came down to pitch sequencing and hitters laying off his slider with two strikes.

Otherwise, it’s an unremarkable profile in which his lower WHIP this year (1.22) is indicative of a pitcher who can limit traffic when things are working, though his 6.27 ERA in four Chesapeake starts is much higher than his season ERA of 4.01 thanks to elevated home run numbers since the trade.

What does he throw?

Watts-Brown throws a very good slider very often. That’s his go-to pitch and has been since he started throwing it in the summer of 2022 with Falmouth of the Cape Cod Baseball League. It became a featured pitch at Oklahoma State.

“If I need a swing and miss, or with righties especially, to get them off the heater, it’s mostly fastball/slider to those guys,” he said. “I feel like that’s what I use it most for, obviously for punchouts as well. But I feel like it’s just a gyro slider that I get good extension on and it looks like my heater until it doesn’t, so it plays well.”

The pitch is in the 84-86 mph range. It has late horizontal and vertical break, and it misses a ton of bats. Since coming to the organization, Watts-Brown has used the pitch plenty — and mixed up his sequencing with it after hitters before the trade started counting on it as a two-strike offering and laying off — to make it a better weapon. He had 16 whiffs on the pitch on Aug. 16 against Erie, and he gets whiffs around a third of the time on it. It’s at least a plus pitch and is only going to feature more heavily as his career progresses.

“It creates a ton of chase, and he can throw it in any count,” Chesapeake pitching coach Jordie Henry said. “He’s got really good feel for it to throw it to any location and any side. Part of it is just the conviction and confidence behind it, but it’s got some approach angle things that pairs well with the line off the heater.”

The pitch came about to give Watts-Brown something between his four-seam fastball and curveball, and the fastball is an area of focus for him as the Orioles work with him. His fastball, in the 92-94 mph range, works well in specific pockets but is the source of most of the damage he allows — including three homers Aug. 16.

Watts-Brown said the pitch plays well in the corners of the strike zone and the emphasis has been getting it there, and he’s working to keep it in those good locations rather than simply throwing it in zone, given the hard contact that can occur over the middle.

He’ll also mix in a low-80s curveball that gets good depth to lefties and is working to develop a consistent kick-change.

What does the future hold?

As Watts-Brown was processing the trade and met with the coaches who will now guide his development, he found an alignment he enjoyed.

“They asked me where I saw myself as a big leaguer,” he said. “I said a starter, and they thought the same. That’s one where I’m glad that they agreed with me on that because it gives me confidence that I can go out there and not have to worry about getting thrown into the ’pen if it’s a bad outing. But also, on top of that, just the fact that I feel like I’m good on my mechanics. Now it’s just about getting my pitches a little more dialed in.”

That process is underway, though it hasn’t resulted in massive changes yet. The near-term goal is to keep his four-seamer in those good zones, but as Watts-Brown has gotten to know his new peers in the Orioles’ pitching program, he sees a potential path for improvement.

“One thing that they’ve had with righty starters, particularly pitching to right-handed hitters, is adding a two-seam,” Watts-Brown said. “We haven’t gotten that far yet. Do I think maybe it could be something I do down the road? Yes, just because if I have two different fastballs, one with vert and one with a little bit of sink or run, it’ll just allow my other pitches to play even better.”

In recent years, breakouts such as Gibson, Zach Fruit and Levi Wells have improved their results by adding that pitch. The conversation is happening behind the scenes for Watts-Brown with some bullpen tinkering, even if full implementation may be better suited for the offseason. Such a change would help raise Watts-Brown’s profile, though, in the interim, the work he can do on his changeup can serve the same purpose.

“That’s how you’re a big league starter, to have a good fastball you can put anywhere in any count,” he said. “And obviously the changeup development. It was an emphasis with the Blue Jays, but they’ve helped me a lot over the last few outings as far as getting me more consistent and confident with it.”

Watts-Brown started throwing a kick-change this season and occasionally would throw a few good ones, he said, but wouldn’t get the dive he wanted. The Orioles made a seam-shift adjustment to influence its movement pattern and make it more effective and consistent.

“The type of changeup he’s throwing is a little bit newer to him, going back to his time with Toronto, but all season it’s just been really inconsistent in shape, so we’re trying to dial that in a little bit and, while trying to dial that in, getting him to use it and battle in a game,” Henry said. “Right now, as inconsistent as it is and as little as he uses it, if he can get the shape and the usage right and start executing it, that’s kind of the [ingredient] that he’s missing, even though he has that pitch already.”

Put together, those are the developmental goals that would allow Watts-Brown to remain a starter. A useful fastball to pair with his fantastic slider would solidify a leverage bullpen role, but the slider alone makes it hard to envision him not carving out a major league role of some kind. By the start of next year at Chesapeake, with an offseason of work achieved, we should have a better idea of where that progress is.