As the Orioles’ lineup has filled with homegrown stars all over the field, all first-day draft picks and all but a handful from the college ranks, those graduations and some trades to supplement that group have left the farm system with a different complexion in recent years.

Entering what looks to be a pivotal draft in which the team has the largest bonus pool ($19.145 million) and seven of the first 93 picks, which is followed quickly by an MLB trade deadline in which general manager Mike Elias has the unexpected task of deciding whether to trade players off the current roster for prospects or younger talent, the strength of the system now resides elsewhere.

It’s definitely not as top-heavy a system as it was when those hitters from Elias’ first few drafts were there, but with the ramping production from the pitching program and international scouting operation, there’s a diversity of high-upside, higher-risk depth that arguably is exactly what the team needs in its current competitive state.

“We have a lot of our talent here in the big leagues that we had the last few years, and we had some trades, and we have some players that are working their way up,” said Matt Blood, Orioles vice president of player development and domestic scouting. “I think there are some that are lesser known than maybe some in the past, but we know that we want to constantly improve and we’re hoping that, through last year’s draft and this year’s draft, we’ll continue to improve as a farm system.”

The first few drafts under Elias were extremely successful and, depending on the trajectory of a handful of players and the team itself, could be viewed as historic. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday have solidified themselves as regulars here, with Kyle Stowers and Joey Ortiz starring elsewhere and Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad among those trying to establish themselves at the major league level still.

Those drafts, focused on the more knowable and predictable phylum of college hitters, fit the front office’s strengths and the team’s needs well. The draft model that guided Elias and assistant general manager Sig Mejdal so well in St. Louis and Houston was predicated largely on the predictive nature of college stats, which made them the least risky of the groups to choose from in the early rounds, given the youth of high school picks and the injury risks on the mound.

The Orioles also had a paucity of talent on the hitting side, particularly in the infield, when they took over. So their preferences matched the need, and those picks ultimately added the ballast to the farm system they were expected to, along with some serious upside.

Rutschman, Henderson and Holliday were all at one point the league’s best prospect according to Baseball America, and Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo, Ortiz and Connor Norby were top-100 prospects.

As that was all happening, the pitching program was coming to life with now-assistant major league pitching coach Mitch Plassmeyer and Director of Pitching Development Forrest Herrmann helping elevate that operation and integrate cutting-edge elements of pitch design, biomechanical analysis and other modern philosophies. Koby Pérez, one of Elias’ first hires, helped the team catch up quickly in the once-neglected international scouting space, adding top talents from the Dominican Republic to the system.

A combination of factors has led those two segments of the farm system to overtake the drafted hitters in terms of quality. There have been trades, with the likes of Matthew Etzel and Mac Horvath dealt at last year’s deadline, plus some slower development trajectories, given there’s not a need to accelerate players to the majors.

Although there are meaningful hitting prospects remaining from recent drafts, there are fewer of them than in the rebuilding days. Of the 23 Orioles minor league hitters who entered Friday with a wRC+ of over 100, which would be league average at their levels, just 10 were draftees. They include breakout prospect Nate George, plus Austin Overn and Colin Tuft from a 2024 draft class that has had its challenges, plus Dylan Beavers and Creed Willems.

Conversely, the international ranks have produced many of the organization’s top hitters this year, including Samuel Basallo, Jordan Sánchez, Yasmil Bucce and Joshua Liranzo.

Baseball America’s midseason update of the team’s top 30 prospects had 13 international signees ranked, including three of the 11 pitchers. And the overall pitching depth might now be the strength of the system. The 2023 crop of college pitchers, including Michael Forret, Trey Gibson, Braxton Bragg, Levi Wells and Blake Money, has stood out at every level this year, with international pitchers Luis De Leon, Keeler Morfe and Esteban Mejia at one point or another capturing the imagination.

Director of Player Development Anthony Villa said the diversity of the talent base in the minors is “super healthy for an organization” as he noted the changing complexion of the system.

With that change, however, comes a different risk profile. Many of the top college hitters the Orioles drafted have turned out to be productive major leaguers, as expected.

There’s far more volatility in international amateurs, who sign at age 16 (after often agreeing to terms years before that) and have tremendous physical and emotional development to carry out, to say nothing of their on-field performance. Same goes for pitchers, as evidenced by the spate of injuries on the mound for Orioles prospects this year, illustrating why the club is reluctant to invest top picks in the space.

But a farm system whose strength is in subsets of players with high ceilings but also quite low floors creates a lack of visibility into how exactly it can support the major league team in the future. These types are attractive in trades, given the value if they hit their ceilings, but outside a few players at the moment (Basallo, Beavers and 2023 top pick Enrique Bradfield Jr.), there’s a lack of certainty in terms of what they have on the hitting side.

This draft, and perhaps the deadline depending on the level at which they sell, could be a reason to add back that ballast to a portfolio of young players that feels increasingly high risk and high reward. Elias said it’s “very possible” and he hopes one of those first few picks is a pitcher, which would be the highest he has selected one for the Orioles. But, because he describes the draft as “the lifeblood of a franchise like ours,” Elias also suggested they may not deviate from what’s worked just because there are so many picks to make.