When Orioles manager Brandon Hyde announced the team’s All-Stars to a gathering of players and staff Sunday, he lauded the group for the first half it had and predicted it would be playing together deep into October because it would keep playing well and improving in the second half.

That’s the hope from the highest levels of the organization on down through the fan base, but focusing too much on how this team can and needs to improve — hand up on that one — discounts just how meaningful what it already has done is.

If this Orioles team’s aspirations to truly contend in October were easy to believe in, everyone would. They’re fun, they’re scrappy, they’re getting younger and more talented at every turn, and their success is largely rewarding those who stuck through the lean years to get here.

For those reasons, though, every game they win feels like a relief and every loss feels worse than it is, because after being so down for so long every win matters and this team has had to work so hard to get them. This is high-stakes baseball, with the most difficult part of the season still to come, but moving on too far from what this team has done without acknowledging the following would feel unfair: The Orioles are pretty good, they’ve played consistently good baseball for a while, and wanting them to be even better shouldn’t take away from that.

Here’s the reality. Since baseball instituted the wild card in 1995, only 17 of 107 teams have missed the playoffs after winning 48 of their first 81 games, which is where the Orioles arrived at the halfway point over the weekend.

Most of those occurred when there was just one wild card team; only three happened after a second was added in 2012. The 2014 Brewers finished 82-80 after a 49-32 start. The 2018 Mariners won 50 games in the first half and 89 overall, but they missed out (and wouldn’t have made it with a third wild card, either). Most recently, the 2021 Padres started 49-32 and won only 30 games the rest of the way.

Of course that’s on the table for the Orioles. It’s not hard to see their path to exit interviews in the first week of October. Their starters could fatigue as inning counts reach personal highs, the offense could continue to feel a little light, and the bullpen could stop delivering leads to All-Stars Yennier Cano and Félix Bautista.

This is typically where I would use expected statistics to predict what comes next. Halfway through the season, they still mostly point to regression with key hitters and pitchers, and that’s cause for concern. The data-driven foundation of this Orioles rebuild will tell us that often what’s expected to happen does, and canceling out the noise will help the front office make the best decisions.

But there’s no need to pronounce the 50-something wins at the All-Star break as just noise. Those wins are already banked, and the Orioles have plenty to look forward to in the second half.

They will get a much better version of Grayson Rodriguez in their rotation once he returns. They need bullpen help, but the extended absences of Dillon Tate and Mychal Givens mean any contribution they get from that duo is a bonus and that knowledge is an impetus to upgrade. Jordan Westburg’s debut and success could help solve their infield conundrum, with Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad seemingly in line to be second-half contributors and further bolster a lineup in which every important hitter has carried the team for one stretch or another and is bound to again.

Plus, they can trade for literally anything they need. They may decide they only need rental arms, and as long as they’re good ones, there’s nothing really wrong with that. Their start to the season means that simply holding their ground can get them into the playoffs, which are a total crapshoot with built-in off days that help solidify pitching staffs.

What the Orioles did in the first half shouldn’t make them complacent. If anyone involved with making decisions for this team is comfortable with how things are going, all they need to do is watch them play every night to be relieved of that notion.

The floor for this team, however, is high. We’re seeing that every night, too. There will be plenty of time to address all the ways they can, and in many ways should, be better. The halfway mark is an occasion to acknowledge this season has been a good one. Anything resembling this in the second half will get this team into the playoffs, and maybe deep into them. And, considering the depths from which this club traveled, that means something.

jon.meoli@thebaltimorebanner.com