The Orioles have the talent. Will this be the season it takes them further in the postseason?

They are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances but failed to win a game either time. The team didn’t add any stars — and lost big ones in Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander — but it made minor moves to supplement the players it already had. OF Tyler O’Neill and right-handed starters Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano highlight those new additions.

So how will the Orioles’ season play out? Here’s how our experts see it.

Record and playoff finish

Danielle Allentuck, Orioles beat reporter: 92-70. They will win an AL Wild Card Series and an AL Division Series but fall in the championship round.

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Paul Mancano, Banner Baseball Show co-host: 95-67. The Orioles will make their first ALCS appearance since 2014 but lose to the Boston Red Sox.

Andy Kostka, Orioles beat reporter: 85-77. This is all a guess, and so much depends on streakiness and injuries. But the Orioles could miss the postseason by a game or two, falling behind the following wild-card teams: the Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros. Or they’ll win the World Series and we’ll laugh at this prediction.

Jon Meoli, Orioles columnist: 93-69. Last year, I thought the Orioles would be better than 2023 and have a far worse record. This year, I think they’ll be better than 2024 and win a little more. I see them in the ALCS as well.

Most Valuable Oriole

Allentuck: Last week, as Colton Cowser held court at his locker, he tried to make a case for the second-place finisher in the MVO voting to get recognition, because, as he saw it, no one will beat Gunnar Henderson. Then Cowser got up and walked out of the clubhouse, only to return 10 seconds later with an epiphany. If Henderson isn’t the MVO, he said, then the team is probably in a really bad place. So, all that to say, I agree with Cowser. Henderson is my pick, and it’s hard to see this team succeeding without Henderson leading the way.

Mancano: A healthy Jordan Westburg should get votes. So should a recalibrated Adley Rutschman. But Henderson’s impact on both sides of the ball is too hard to ignore. Corbin Burnes was a top-five Cy Young finisher, and he still produced less than half as many wins above replacement (3.5) as Henderson (9.1).

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Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) throws to first base in the third game of a series against the Detroit Tigers at Camden Yards in Baltimore on Sunday, September 22, 2024.
Shortstop Gunnar Henderson will begin the season on the injured list but should come back to lead the Orioles again. (Ulysses Muñoz/The Baltimore Banner)

Kostka: Purely for the sake of variance, I’ll go with catcher Adley Rutschman. He’s poised for a better year than the performance he managed in the second half of 2024, although that’s a low bar (Rutschman hit .207 after the All-Star break). Henderson is the favorite, and he should win it barring something unexpected, but Rutschman’s management of the pitching staff and an improved offensive performance could make him a worthy MVO.

Meoli: I think Colton Cowser is going to end up with 90% of Henderson’s production this year, and just by virtue of the leap forward that will represent and the potential for Henderson not to be as great as he’s expected to be, he’ll be the winner.

Breakout star

Allentuck: Jackson Holliday. His rookie season, when he hit .189 with five home runs, didn’t meet his expectations. But he beefed up this offseason and showed strength and speed all spring. This season he’ll show his full potential and develop into a dependable star.

Baltimore Orioles outfielder Heston Kjerstad (13) connects with a pitch in the third game of a series against the Detroit Tigers at Camden Yards in Baltimore on Sunday, September 22, 2024.
Outfielder Heston Kjerstad has excelled when he’s been given the opportunity. (Ulysses Muñoz/The Baltimore Banner)

Mancano: Heston Kjerstad. The outfielder has less than 150 plate appearances in his big league career, but he’s looked the part of a big league contributor every time he’s gotten the call. He’ll finally get a chance for regular big league at-bats, likely platooning with free agent addition Tyler O’Neill.

Kostka: Cade Povich. The left-hander’s strong spring training performance — a continuation of his breakout September — solidified his place in the rotation. Povich could run with the chance. He’s the young colt in a rotation full of veterans, but he could be one of those veterans someday.

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Meoli: Colton Cowser again, for me. I think he’s going to be an All-Star and end the year as one of the guys we talk about in the same way we talk about Rutschman and Henderson. Jordan Westburg is in that category for me, too, for what it’s worth.

Top rookie

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano (19) casually tosses the ball to a teammate as he warms up ahead of a Grapefruit League game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at LECOM Park in Bradenton, Fla. on Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025.
It’s not often a three-time league MVP can be in the running for rookie of the year, but that’s the case for Tomoyuki Sugano. (Ulysses Muñoz/The Baltimore Banner)

Allentuck: Tomoyuki Sugano. Yes, a 35-year-old can be a rookie. And, after watching him this spring, he’s my pick. He throws six pitches, and his command is spot on. I don’t think he’ll have any trouble adjusting to Major League Baseball.

Mancano: Jackson Holliday no longer has rookie eligibility and Coby Mayo didn’t make the original 26, so the smart money would be on Tomoyuki Sugano, whose $13 million deal makes it very likely he’ll be on the roster all season.

Kostka: The smart money may be on Tomoyuki Sugano, but we’ll go with Coby Mayo for the sake of variability. His 17-game sample in the majors last season didn’t go well. He managed four hits. His spring training stats weren’t great, either, although he improved as camp went on. Mayo is starting in Triple-A, and if he attacks that challenge to make the final improvements the Orioles deem necessary — mainly with plate discipline — he might be a much-needed boost for the lineup midway through the season.

Meoli: It feels hard for me to envision Samuel Basallo being on the Orioles long enough to warrant consideration for this, but if he does force his way onto the roster before September, it will be because he’s performing well and ready. That would bode well for a significant major league impact, so I’ll go that way.