At the end of this month, there should be more clarity around the state of the Orioles. The July 31 trade deadline is the point of no return when it comes to the 2025 season: either sell and wave the white flag, or stand pat and strive to pull off the unlikely.

We’ll find all that out together. For the time being, these are the (educated) guesses of The Baltimore Banner’s Orioles writers.

Is there still a chance the Orioles can fix things this season and claw their way into the playoffs?

Jon Meoli, Orioles columnist: Of course there is a chance, it’s obviously just not a good one. The team as it currently exists is good enough to make a run but more likely will just be a little better than average. That kind of finish will be frustrating because typically that’s all it takes to get to October and roll the dice — unless you play as badly as they did for the first 50 games of the season, at which point it doesn’t matter.

Paul Mancano, Banner Baseball Show co-host: Theoretically, sure. Fans should still be rooting for a surprise postseason berth – Baltimore hasn’t been to the playoffs in three straight seasons since 1969-71 – but it’s more important that the O’s stars use the second half to get right. If the Orioles fall short because their front office whiffed on a few free agents the previous winter, you can live with that. But if their franchise tent poles turn out to be less reliable than anticipated, they might not be playing October baseball for quite a while.

Danielle Allentuck, Orioles reporter: When interim manager Tony Mansolino took over in May, he stated that his initial goal was getting back to .500, then back into playoff contention. Well, this past weekend, he changed that to five games under .500. The team realizes where they are, and while miracles can happen, it seems extremely unlikely that they will be playing in October this year.

Andy Kostka, Orioles reporter: Cue the Kevin Garnett gif: “Anything is possible!” There’s a reason Garnett didn’t yell, “It’s definitely going to happen!” The Orioles face a huge uphill battle, and while there is still about half a season to play, the looming trade deadline could mean some of Baltimore’s best assets are out the door. So, yes, it’s possible. And yes, it’s also not likely.

What’s the biggest need the Orioles need to address at the trade deadline?

Meoli: Can messaging be a need? Considering the narrow avenues available to meaningfully add to the team, their options feel somewhere between standing pat and selling. Neither will feel great on the outside, and to the extent it matters (and I know it ultimately doesn’t), I think they really need to do a good job explaining what and why they’re doing and how it helps the Orioles avoid seasons like this going forward.

Mancano: More to Jon’s point, should the Orioles sell, Elias needs to send the right message to the players in the clubhouse who will undoubtedly be frustrated to see their teammates go. This group learned a difficult lesson when manager Brandon Hyde was fired in May, and that lesson will be reinforced if key veterans are dealt. Adding prospects and perhaps some controllable major leaguers at the deadline would be nice, but this O’s team won’t go far in 2026 if their young core doesn’t put 2025 behind them.

Allentuck: I agree with the two above points, and I asked Elias about this the other day. We all saw how poorly it went when they traded Trey Mancini in 2022. Has Elias learned from that and will he do a better job managing the clubhouse this time around? From a roster-based standpoint, this team really needs pitching. If they are sellers they should be seeking either near-major league ready starters or ones with years of control.

Kostka: It’s entirely possible — perhaps even likely — that the Orioles don’t approach this trade deadline as traditional sellers or buyers. There will be a mix of both. The pitching depth needs to be bolstered, and near-major league talent could be acquired for some of the biggest names on the Orioles. But even still, if low-level minor leaguers are what is offered, building out the farm system is imperative.

Will fan favorites like Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn still be here in a month?

Meoli: I don’t think so. I personally think a team with money, which the Orioles have, should be glad to roll the qualifying offer dice with both and take the draft pick if they leave in the winter. That said, the Orioles don’t need more draft picks. Their organizational deficiencies are in the high minors at the moment, and trading these players would help cover that as this year’s massive draft class and the fast risers from the international market and recent draft classes move up.

Mancano: Highly doubtful. The trade value of the Orioles’ starting pitchers seems to fluctuate each week, but Mullins and O’Hearn have built up a large enough body of work to convince teams they’re worth acquiring. Maybe the O’s can have their cake and eat it too by re-signing one or both in the offseason.

Allentuck: I do think Mullins will be. Although he has elite defense, his offensive numbers haven’t been great and he may not yield a strong enough return.

Kostka: Mullins seems likelier to remain than O’Hearn for two reasons. One of them is from the perspective of other teams, and it’s that O’Hearn is posting All-Star-worthy numbers. Many teams would like to have that production. Mullins gives superior defense and a streaky bat, so there will surely be interest in his services. But the Orioles don’t have a ready-made center field replacement for Mullins (yes, Colton Cowser could be that, but his defense in left field paired with Mullins has made the Orioles a highly efficient unit out there). The Orioles may want to consider Mullins for a short-term extension before he hits free agency — that is, if Mullins would be open to it.

Will the Orioles’ front office learn from this season and address the failures next offseason?

Meoli: I think this past offseason was more idiosyncratic and had more to do with opportunity sets (roles available given their current roster, injury uncertainty, and the actual players who were on the market and would sign here) than naivete. I don’t think the Orioles can go another offseason without adding a top starter. So, yes, I suppose so.

Mancano: While I don’t expect Elias to sign Dylan Cease to a $500 million deal this winter, I believe he will act with more urgency than he ever has. If the O’s don’t get back to their winning ways in 2026, the team’s new ownership group could get restless. The free agent market is saturated with excellent arms and the O’s should once again be looking for a right-handed bat. There are no excuses this time.

Allentuck: I do, but I say that mainly because I expect the Orioles to make some front office changes as soon as the season ends. Elias is still who he is, so I don’t expect him to make any blockbuster signings, but maybe a trade like he did with Corbin Burnes is more in his wheelhouse again.

Kostka: In fairness to Elias, he offered right-hander Corbin Burnes a very competitive offer to remain in Baltimore. At least publicly, it’s not apparent how aggressive Elias was in his attempts to acquire a different ace-quality pitcher, but he clearly realizes it’s a need. Knowing that, and knowing how this season went, my mind goes two ways. Will the Orioles be willing to dole out the large money (and years) required to land an ace given the injury risk for any pitcher? Maybe not. Or, Elias sees this year as proof that he and David Rubenstein must make an offer no pitcher can refuse. That way, even if there’s an injury, the Orioles were set up in a better way.