Coby Mayo is right. There’s a lot of downside for someone like him — a talented 23-year-old prospect with a season’s worth of Triple-A experience already on his ledger — to return to the minors, as he’s set to do when Norfolk’s season ramps up at the end of this month.

I don’t blame him for feeling disappointed, or impatient, or whatever other feeling he has on the matter. He’s not the first person to feel any of those things.

But all those before him, it turned out, weren’t harmed by a return to Triple-A in the long run, and without any kind of place for him on the Orioles’ opening day roster, this feels a lot more like a case of delayed gratification than grave misjustice.

So much about Mayo’s climb through the Orioles system suggests he is ready for a major league role. His breakout in 2023, when he started at Double-A Bowie and finished in Norfolk, mirrored that of Gunnar Henderson a year before. (Henderson finished that 2022 season in the majors.)

The Norfolk lineup when he debuted in the International League on July 14, 2023, was topped by Connor Norby, Heston Kjerstad, Joey Ortiz and Kyle Stowers. That foursome has some intimate knowledge of what Mayo is dealing with right now, having all spent time shuffling back and forth between Norfolk and Baltimore, overwhelming Triple-A pitching only to find a regular major league role elusive.

It took a while, but all four are going to be regulars this year: Kjerstad with the Orioles, Ortiz with the Brewers, and Norby and Stowers with the Marlins. They were certainly frustrated at times with their seeming stagnation in Norfolk, but the projection systems that effectively drive decision-making across the league didn’t dim the outlook for them, and the opportunity they wanted eventually came.

There are a few differences with Mayo, the most significant being his age. He turned 23 in December, and with 657 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s seemingly squeezed most of the benefit out of the perceived challenges of that level. When he first arrived, his power reputation preceded him, and opposing pitchers started pitching him backward and locating in places Mayo couldn’t drive. He had to adjust and realize what they were doing, and from September 2023 on, Triple-A pitching hasn’t really challenged him.

The same can’t be said for major league pitching. Mayo likened this spring with that 2023 season in Bowie, when he returned to a level he’d struggled at with something to prove. It’s going to be hard to prove he can hit major league pitching in Triple-A, and he knows that.

I’m just not sure that’s what he does need to prove. Mayo can demonstrate that he’s on time with the fastball and make good swing decisions, as he has for years, and probably improve his career .919 OPS at the level.

The challenge ahead of him in Norfolk, though, is to make sure, when he’s summoned to Baltimore next, that it’s for good. It would certainly help if the Orioles gave him a position to focus on. It’s hard to learn the nuances of first base without being there every day, yet every day spent at first is a day when he’s not squeezing every ounce of third base proficiency out of his skill set.

Whatever spot they choose, Mayo needs to be someone manager Brandon Hyde feels confident running out there for a couple of weeks, allowing him to get comfortable at the plate to let his true talents shine through. I was told this winter to expect him to play more first than third this year. I think that’s where he’ll play if the Orioles need him, too.

When that time comes, I know Mayo will be ready. I feel like the Orioles know that, too, and deep down Mayo probably does as well. When we spoke last month in Sarasota about learning from major league experience, Mayo talked about not spending much time focusing on the negatives and trying to build on the positives with a coaching staff he knows believes in him. Hitting coaches Cody Asche and Sherman Johnson have great relationships with him, and a ton of confidence in him. Mayo has fans throughout the front office, and seems like the most natural Ryan Mountcastle successor imaginable.

That was never going to happen out of camp. Even with the possibility of an unexpected infielder making the roster if Gunnar Henderson isn’t ready for opening day, Mayo isn’t a positional fit for that.

It’s hard to call him an odd man out because he feels in many ways like a favored son of this organization. What he is, ultimately, is the last of the first generation of prospects produced by the Mike Elias regime, one who has moved fast and aggressively through the minors and now has to wait for a major league role to materialize. All of his peers are established, with someone younger in Jackson Holliday seemingly locked into a major league role.

After Mayo, and maybe Samuel Basallo, things changed. Prospects are taking longer to move through the minors. There’s no rush anymore. The Orioles have talent across their major league roster, and the expectations down below are different.

That doesn’t change Mayo’s expectations to join his peers in the majors, though, and I’m glad for that. I’d just argue that there’s a little more upside to his season-opening assignment than he sees at the moment.